Morning Coffee: A timely reminder of the importance of responsible gaming

“The only way this doesn’t hit is if he gets hurt”.

Would I write that line in a Morning Coffee column?

No.

Would I think it ahead of an NFL prime-time game?

Absolutely.

Injury potential is always going to be something I’ll consider before I place a wager at FanDuel.

Of course, there’s no exact science behind it.

If you don’t believe me, just ask the fantasy football crowd that is still clamouring about how nobody could have known Christian McCaffrey would be sidelined when they anointed him the consensus 1.01 in drafts.

The National Football League is unlike any other sport for several different reasons.

When it comes to betting on the league at FanDuel, there is always the potential for injuries, weather and game circumstances to entirely flip the script on expectations.

On Thursday Night Football, we got another example of how an injury can shift the betting narrative.

Reflecting on it this morning, the Jordan Mason injury is a clear reminder of the importance of responsible gaming. 

This is the Morning Coffee for Friday October 11th, 2024.

A Timely Reminder Of The Importance Of Responsible Gaming

If you’re a regular reader of this column, then you already know that the FanDuel Best Bets in Morning Coffee have been red-hot over the past couple of weeks.

Coming off a 2-0 sweep on my best bets for Monday Night Football, I couldn’t wait to lock in my next play in Thursday morning’s column.

While I considered a few recommended plays, there were three that jumped off the paper when it came to my Thursday Night Football projections.

Jordan Mason 80+ rushing yards
Jordan Mason over 17.5 rushing attempts
49ers team total over 26.5 points

Mason had averaged 26.0 carries for 135.0 rushing yards in San Francisco’s first two wins of the season and I projected he would dominate again versus a Seattle Seahawks defence that has been particularly vulnerable against the run this season.

As it turns out, I was right.

Mason averaged 8.1 yards per carry while rushing for 65 yards on eight rushing attempts through the first 18 minutes of game time.

That meant all I needed was 15 rushing yards on 10 more rushing attempts over the final 39 minutes of game time and I would be primed for another sweep with the FanDuel Best Bets in Morning Coffee.

Instead, Mason suffered an injury early in the second quarter and despite trying to get back on the field in the second half he couldn’t finish the game.

The 49ers went on to score 36 points as the over 26.5 on their team total was an easy winner.

Mason ultimately finished seven yards short of 80+ rushing and nine carries short of hitting 18+ attempts.

To add insult to injury, his replacement’s Isaac Guerendo and Patrick Taylor Jr. combined for 115 rushing yards on 15 carries over the final three quarters.

As difficult as it was to have both Mason rushing props graded as a loss due to injury, it was another reminder of the importance of responsible gaming when it comes to betting on the NFL.

Again, my projections screamed that Mason would have a monster rushing performance against the Seahawks.

I could have very easily become carried away with the raw numbers that I was looking at and placed multiple bets on the Mason rushing props.

Instead, I played both props for one unit each.

With the San Francisco team total coming through, the Morning Coffee best bets went 1-2 for minus one unit.

That means that the picks are 3-2 for plus one unit this week with a couple of bets pending for NFL Sunday.

If you missed the recommended plays, you could find them right now on my X page.

My projections point to Tennessee Titans running back Tony Pollard to go over 59.5 rushing yards against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday.

I also like Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed to go over 59.5 receiving yards against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday.

That means I will have one unit on both of those wagers.

That’s because I understand that if my projections are accurate and they perform exactly the way that I expect that they will, there’s still the potential for an injury, weather, or even game circumstances to shake things up.

FanDuel has a wide range of different options that bettors can use to manage their gaming activity at any time.

There are tools in place that allow members to limit the amount they can deposit at any time.

There are also tools that limit how much time that they spend on the FanDuel app.

Ultimately, my position is that betting on the NFL should be a fun experience that adds to the entertainment value of watching the games.

Regardless of the type of bettor you are, the single-most important factor for any player is responsible gaming.

There’s no such thing as a lock.

Sometimes, even when your projections are spot on, something will happen that will result in a loss.

If you manage your play the right way, then you can take one loss in stride and move on to the next play.

Mason’s rushing yards prop was one of the most popular bets for Thursday Night Football at FanDuel, and for good reason.

The injury was a tough break, and I hope that Mason doesn’t miss any extended time because of it.

As for me, the FanDuel Best Bets in this column went 1-2 on Thursday for minus one unit.

This morning, we’ll turn the page to NFL Sunday Week 6.

If you missed my plays throughout the week, make sure you give me a follow @Domenic_Padula on X.

Hopefully, we can put the Mason injury behind us and stay hot with a couple more winners for NFL Sunday.

Happy Thanksgiving to all! 

Have a great weekend, everyone!