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Morning Coffee: Alabama’s playoff odds surge after latest rankings reveal
With just nine FBS games remaining before the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff field is announced this weekend, we don’t have to guess who is in and who is out anymore – for the most part, that is.
With just nine FBS games remaining before the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff field is announced this weekend, we don’t have to guess who is in and who is out anymore – for the most part, that is.
The Oregon Ducks held firm as the No.1 team in the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday.
Oregon is the favourite to win it all at +350 at FanDuel. Shout-out to my guy – the former Duck – Davis Sanchez.
If Oregon beats Penn State in the Big Ten Championship game on Saturday, the Ducks will almost certainly become just the fifth team to hold the No. 1 spot in every College Football Playoff ranking in a season.
That doesn’t guarantee anything once the playoff begins though, as only one of the previous four teams that were No. 1 in every in-season ranking went on to win it all.
Oregon is currently a 3.5-point favourite for the Big Ten Championship game at FanDuel.
Meanwhile, the latest rankings included a reaction to one of the biggest upsets of the college football season.
Ohio State fell to No. 6 after a stunning loss to Michigan.
The Buckeyes are still the third choice to win the FBS Championship at +400 at FanDuel, behind only Oregon and Texas.
Ohio State is tied with the Ducks for the most wins of 20 or more points by any team in the FBS this season. They’ll be just fine despite the loss to the Wolverines. If you don’t believe me, just ask a Buckeyes fan.
Georgia rounds out the top four choices to win it at +550.
The Bulldogs beat the Texas Longhorns 30-15 when those teams met on Oct. 19. Despite the win, Georgia is getting 2.5 points as a small underdog for Saturday’s SEC Championship game.
If they take care of business against Texas, the Bulldogs will become just the second team ever to beat the same top five-ranked opponent twice in one season.
With just four days to go before the official 12-team College Football Playoff bracket is revealed, there are still a handful of question marks to be answered.
The FanDuel College Football Playoff markets give us a good idea of what we can expect ahead of Selection Day.
This is the Morning Coffee for Wednesday Dec. 4, 2024.
Alabama’s playoff odds surge after latest rankings reveal
Will Alabama make the College Football Playoff? Their chances certainly got a lot better after the penultimate rankings were released on Tuesday.
The three-loss Tide leapfrogged the two-loss Miami Hurricanes for the No. 11 spot in the latest rankings.
College Football Playoff Selection Committee Chair Warde Manuel explained that decision on Tuesday.
While the reaction among many college football fans ranged from surprise to sheer outrage, anybody paying attention to FanDuel’s market for Alabama to make the playoffs should have expected it.
The Tide were a pick’em to make the playoffs at FanDuel as recently as Monday morning. By 4 p.m. ET, they had moved to -186 to make the playoff. As of this morning, Alabama to make the playoffs is -400 at FanDuel.
Per the FanDuel traders, since the latest rankings were released, 77 per cent of the bets and 87.7 per cent of the handle have been on the Tide to make the playoffs.
That number represents an 80 per cent implied probability that they go on to make the playoff. The Tide to miss the playoffs is +285.
Regardless of how things play out, the sentiment surrounding Alabama’s chances to get in has clearly shifted substantially in response to the latest rankings.
Meanwhile, SMU is currently the third-ranked team.
At the same time, the Mustangs are the only other team with a market for their odds to make the playoffs at FanDuel.
SMU is -520 to make the playoff at FanDuel. The Mustangs are +350 to miss the playoff entirely.
SMU is currently a 2.5-point favourite for Saturday’s ACC Championship game showdown with Clemson.
If they win that game, the Mustangs will clinch a first-round playoff bye. If they lose that game, there is still a slim chance that they somehow slip outside of the 12-team playoff.
Finally, FanDuel has a market that allows bettors to wager on the exact order of the top four playoff teams.
Oregon, Texas, SMU and Boise State to finish 1 through 4 in that exact order is considered the most likely outcome as the favourite in that market at +600 odds.
Oregon, Georgia, SMU, and Boise State to go 1 through 4 is +650 at FanDuel. Texas, Penn State, SMU, and Boise State to go 1 to 4 is now +800 at FanDuel. Penn State, Georgia, SMU, and Boise State at 1 through 4 is currently +950.
Do you think you have a pretty good handle on how the top four rankings will play out on Selection Sunday?
Give me a follow @Domenic_Padula on X and let me know.
Personally, I can’t wait to see how it all plays out.
A FanDuel Best Bet for Wednesday night
All of us in the Greater Toronto Area woke up to snow and heavy winds this morning. The winter conditions aren’t expected to get any better throughout the day.
It’s cold outside, but hopefully we can stay hot and find another FanDuel Best Bet winner this morning with a chance to improve to 3-0 in the month of December.
Anybody who watched the Milwaukee Bucks beat up on the Detroit Pistons last night had to be impressed by how easily their two stars were able to dominate.
Giannis Antetokounmpo hit his first 10 field goals and finished with 28 points, eight assists, and seven rebounds in just 28 minutes. Damian Lillard scored 27 points with five assists and four rebounds in 32 minutes.
Tonight, they’ll face an opponent that ranks 27th in the NBA in points per game allowed in the Atlanta Hawks.
Giannis has scored 20 or more points in every game that he’s played this season. Lillard has scored at least 14 points in 12 straight and 16 of 17 games this season.
Milwaukee has won seven in a row and both stars should still be fresh after playing limited minutes in last night’s blowout win over the Pistons.
The Bucks should be able to extend that win streak against the visiting Atlanta Hawks, which they beat by nine and 10 points in their previous two meetings last season.
I’ll lock in a Same Game Parlay with Giannis to score 20+ points, Lillard to score 15+ points, and Milwaukee to win outright at -109 odds.
Hopefully, we can make it three winners in a row to start the month of December.
Have a great day, everyone!