Morning Coffee: Falcons name rookie Penix their starter

The Atlanta Falcons invested $100 million in guaranteed money when they signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract in the off-season. 

That $100 million bought the franchise a .500 record over 14 regular-season games. 

The Falcons are 7-7 heading into Week 16 in the NFL with three games remaining on their schedule.  

Atlanta is one game back of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for first place in the NFC South and hold the division tiebreaker after wins in both head-to-head meetings. 

However, with time running out and their season on the line, the Falcons can’t afford to maintain the status quo any longer. 

On Tuesday night, the team announced that Cousins has been benched, and rookie first-round pick Michael Penix has been named the starting QB moving forward. 

Anyone paying attention to the situation in Atlanta in recent weeks understood why a quarterback change seemed to be an inevitability.   

As it turns out, the Falcons decided they couldn’t afford to wait even one more week to make the move.  

This is the Morning Coffee for Wednesday, Dec. 18, 2024. 

Falcons name rookie Penix their QB1

Somebody somewhere will likely try to make the case that the Falcons should stick with Cousins as they try to run the table and sneak into the playoffs as the NFC South winner. 

It certainly will not be me. 

The coaching staff and management team sent a clear signal to all of us last night that they believe switching to the rookie Penix heading into the final stretch is in the best interest of the franchise.  

Regardless of what happens next, I agree that it’s the right decision. 

The Falcons numbers over the past few weeks don’t lie. Atlanta lost four straight games before sneaking past the Las Vegas Raiders with a win on Monday Night Football.   

In that five-game span, Cousins threw just a single touchdown pass compared to nine interceptions. 

In Monday’s win over Raiders, Cousins finished with a season-low 17 pass attempts – the fifth-fewest attempts by any NFL starting quarterback that has completed a game this season. 

His 99 air yards were the 11th-fewest by any starting QB this season. 

The Falcons finished that game with a -21.5 per cent pass rate over expectation - the fifth-lowest mark in the NFL this season. 

Fortunately, Bijan Robinson rushed for 125 yards on 5.7 yards per carry and the Falcons managed to at least temporarily keep their season alive. 

While that run-heavy approach worked in Las Vegas, it’s more likely than not that it would not work if Atlanta found its way into the postseason. Apparently, the Falcons coaching staff agrees. 

Shout out to our NFL analyst Davis Sanchez, who predicted that a quarterback change was inevitable. 

Enter Penix, who will make his first NFL start at home against the New York Giants on Sunday. 

The Falcons got as high as -10.5 at FanDuel before the QB Change was officially announced. That number is down to Atlanta -8.5 this morning. 

While it might take some time for Penix to reach his potential taking over as the starting QB as a rookie with just three weeks remaining, the fact that the offence was already so limited with Cousins forced the Falcons hand. 

If Penix can lead this team to wins over the Giants, Washington Commanders, and the Carolina Panthers, then maybe Atlanta wins the NFC South. 

Regardless of whether that happens, Penix gives the Falcons a better shot to win now and is obviously the better long-term option at the QB position. 

Considering the investment the organization has made in Cousins, and the fact that they stuck with him at QB despite his recent struggles, it’s clear that the coaching staff and management agreed they couldn’t hold off on a change at the position any longer. 

Now all eyes are on the rookie Penix to see if he can help the Falcons salvage their season. 

Count me among the football fans that can’t wait to see how that situation plays out in Atlanta. 

A FanDuel Best Bet for Week 16 in the NFL 

While I don’t have a play for Sunday’s game between the Falcons and Giants at this point, I’m ready to turn the page to Week 16 with a FanDuel Best Bet for this weekend. 

I’ll lock in a builder Same Game Parlay + with Lamar Jackson 40+ rushing yards, the Baltimore Ravens to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers outright, and the Buffalo Bills to beat the New England Patriots outright at +108 odds.  

Jackson signalled that he would make more of an effort to run the football following a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 13.  

The fact that he said that after rushing for 79 yards in the loss seemed striking at the time. 

Coming off a bye in Week 14, I jumped on Jackson over 41.5 rushing yards in Sunday’s game against the New York Giants. 

While I was slightly concerned Baltimore being such a big favourite in that game, Jackson cleared 40 rushing yards without a sweat as he finished with 65 yards on six carries. 

Jackson ran for 46 yards in the first meeting against the Steelers – an 18-16 loss back in mid-November. 

He’s cleared 40+ rushing yards in back-to-back games and 11 of 14 games this season. 

With the Ravens chasing the Steelers atop the AFC North with three games to go, I expect Jackson to play with a sense of urgency on Sunday and clear 40+ rushing yards. 

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is dealing with some key injuries as George Pickens, T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward, DeShon Elliott, Patrick Queen and Justin Fields haven’t practised yet this week. 

With the Steelers so banged up, I’ll jump on Jackson 40+ rushing yards, Baltimore to win outright, and the Bills to beat the Patriots as a 14.5-point favourite on Sunday in an SGP+ that pays +108 at FanDuel. 

Have a great day, everyone!