Morning Coffee: Bills Super Bowl hopes bolstered by unprecedented schedule advantage

When the 2024 NFL regular season schedule dropped back in May, football fans celebrated a loaded holiday stretch highlighted by a Christmas Day double-header. 

Seven months later, we’re beginning to understand the potential ramifications of the schedule and the impact it could have on how the year eventually plays out. 

The Kansas City Chiefs began the season as the two-time defending Super Bowl champions and the betting favourite to win it all at FanDuel once again. 

The Chiefs won their first nine games and remain atop the NFL standings with a 13-1 record entering Week 16. 

However, injuries and a lack of consistency on both sides of the football have resulted in Kansas City needing to grind out some narrow wins while struggling to meet the betting public’s expectations on a week-to-week basis as one of the worst teams in the league against the spread. 

Now the Chiefs will face their toughest test of the year as they brace for a brutal stretch in their schedule to close out the regular season with their superstar quarterback’s health in question due to a high-ankle sprain. 

Kansas City isn’t the only AFC contender that will have to deal with the ramifications of an unprecedented schedule change this season. 

While the Chiefs are among the notable teams that could suffer the potential negative consequences that come with the unique holiday slate, there’s one AFC contender that stands to benefit the most from the schedule. 

This is the Morning Coffee for Thursday December 19th, 2024. 

Bills Super Bowl Hopes Bolstered By Unprecedented Schedule Advantage 

The Los Angeles Chargers will host the Denver Broncos in an NFC West showdown to kick off Week 16 in the NFL tonight on TSN. 

The Broncos can officially clinch a playoff spot with a win. 

If the Chargers win and the three 6-8 teams in the AFC all lose on Sunday, both Los Angeles and Denver will clinch. 

Since the playoffs expanded to 10 teams in the 1978 season, there has never been a season in which one conference had every playoff spot clinched with two weeks remaining. 

Both teams would benefit tremendously from locking up a postseason spot in Week 16. 

Denver is 1-5 straight up against teams that currently have a winning record and I’m confident Sean Payton doesn’t want to have to travel to face the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 17 and then host the Chiefs in Week 18 without a playoff spot already locked up. 

Los Angeles is dealing with some key injuries as they brace for a division rival on a short week before back-to-back road games to close out the season. 

The Chargers and Broncos are already considered longshots to make some noise come playoff time as the current sixth and seventh seeds in the AFC. 

Neither team can afford any more significant injuries. 

Meanwhile, four of the five teams ranked ahead of them in the AFC standings are set for an unprecedented challenge over the next two weeks. 

The Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans, and the Baltimore Ravens will all play on short rest on Saturday. 

Four days later, all four teams will play on Christmas Day. 

That’s two weeks in a row that four of the top five choices to win the AFC play on short rest. 

Two of those four teams are dealing with significant injury concerns entering that unparalleled stretch. 

Patrick Mahomes shocked the football world when it was revealed he practiced in full on Wednesday and is expected to start against Houston on Sunday. 

The Texans defence ranks second in the NFL with 45.0 sacks and has forced the third-most turnovers in the league this season. 

If Mahomes is limited at all by the ankle injury, what is the potential risk if he starts against Houston and Pittsburgh in back-to-back games just four days apart in Week 16 and Week 17?  

Meanwhile, the Steelers are dealing with a long list of key injuries heading into Saturday’s AFC North showdown in Baltimore. 

To hold off the Ravens atop the AFC North standings, the Steelers will need to survive back-to-back games in Baltimore this Saturday and then at home against the Chiefs next Wednesday. 

They’ll need to do it without their best players at full strength. 

The Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens, and Texans all play on short rest on Saturday, then again on short rest on Wednesday. 

That’s a grueling stretch for four of the top five choices to win the AFC Championship at FanDuel this morning. 

And we have no idea what the potential consequences will be for all four of those teams as they grind through that unprecedented schedule this late in the season. 

Then there’s the current Super Bowl favourite. 

The Buffalo Bills are two games back of Kansas City at the top of the AFC standings with three games remaining. 

While six of the top seven teams in the AFC play each other on short rest this week – and four of those seven teams doing it two weeks in a row – the Bills have a much different path to the postseason. 

Buffalo will host the New England Patriots in Week 16. 

Then the Bills will host the New York Jets in Week 17. 

In Week 18, they’ll travel for a rematch with the Patriots. 

That means that while Mahomes attempts to overcome a high-ankle sprain in back-to-back starts against two of the AFC’s best teams on short rest, Josh Allen and the Bills have a chance to run the table with plenty of time to prepare for inferior opponents without any concerns about playing on short rest over the final three weeks. 

Buffalo owns the head-to-head tiebreaker versus KC. 

The schedule and the Mahomes injury open the door for the Bills to challenge the Chiefs for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. 

Even if they can’t get to the No. 1 seed, the unique schedule could give a rested Buffalo team a unique advantage over its AFC competition come playoff time. 

The Bills are +200 to win the AFC Championship. 

While Kansas City was my pre-season pick to win the Super Bowl, I’m going to hedge that prediction with a bet on Buffalo to win the AFC Championship at +200 odds and to win the Super Bowl at +450 odds this morning. 

Led by the NFL regular season MVP at quarterback, the Bills have looked more impressive than any other AFC contender in recent weeks, and they should only stand to benefit from the remaining schedule while the rest of the AFC contenders are forced to deal with a tougher path. 

Josh Allen and company need to take advantage. 

It's now or never, Bills Mafia. 

A FanDuel Best Bet For Thursday Night Football 

In case you missed it, I locked in my first play for Week 16 in the NFL in Wednesday morning’s column. 

My FanDuel Best Bet for Thursday Night Football is a Same Game Parlay with Courtland Sutton 40+ receiving yard and Stone Smartt 25+ receiving yards at +102 odds. 

Sutton has been Denver’s best playmaker all season. 

He cleared 70+ receiving yards in six straight games before a letdown against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday when he finished with just three receptions for 32 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. 

Sutton went for 4-53-1 in the first meeting between these teams. 

I’ll bank on him to bounce back with 40 or more receiving yards against a Chargers’ defence that is dealing with injuries in a secondary that just allowed Mike Evans to go for 11-159-2 on Sunday. 

Meanwhile, Smartt has flashed with 8-104 in six quarters since Will Dissly went down with an injury. 

Smartt has a catch 20 or more yards in each game since Dissly went down and now he faces a Denver defence that has allowed an average of 5.4 receptions per game to the position and allowed Kylen Granson to go for 47 yards on three receptions in Sunday’s win over Indy. 

Dissly and Smartt combined for five catches and 36 yards in the first meeting between these teams. 

Give me a Same Game Parlay with Sutton 40+ receiving and Smartt 25+ receiving at +102 odds as a FanDuel Best Bet for Thursday Night Football. 

I’ll also plug in Nix over 19.5 rushing yards as a FanDuel Best Bet. 

Nix exploded for 61 rushing yards in their first meeting. 

He had 23 rushing yards on EIGHT attempts in Sunday’s win over Indianapolis. 

Considering his recent struggles, and with so much on the line tonight, I don’t think he’ll hesitate to use his legs when the opportunity comes. 

Finally, I’ll lock in a builder Same Game Parlay with Javonte Williams 2+ receptions, Marvin Mims 2+ receptions, and the Broncos +14.5 on the alt spread. 

Denver is a small road favourite and I’m not convinced they can’t win this game outright. 

Williams has two or more receptions in 12 of his previous 13 games and he should see more snaps with Jaleel McLaughlin already ruled out for tonight’s game. 

Williams had three receptions in the first meeting, and that was with McLaughlin pulling in two receptions as well. 

Finally, Mims had zero catches on three targets in the first meeting. 

However, he’s averaged 3.3 receptions over the previous four weeks, with two or more catches in five straight games.  

His big play ability should be an asset tonight. 

I like Mims to go over 23.5 receiving yards. 

To recap, here are my FanDuel Best Bets: 

SGP: Sutton 40+ receiving | Smartt 25+ receiving 

Bo Nix over 19.5 rushing yards (+102) 

SGP: Mims 2+ receptions | Williams 2+ receptions | Broncos alt spread +14.5 (+100) 

Marvin Mims over 26.5 receiving yards 

Hopefully, we can go 4-0!  

Have a great day, everyone!