Morning Coffee: Burrow’s Bengals brace for another tough test in Baltimore

Joe Burrow built his reputation on defying the odds.

Still, even for him, there are some challenges that are too difficult to overcome.

After a 1-4 start, Burrow carried the Cincinnati Bengals back into the AFC playoff picture with wins in three of their previous four games.

Of course, it certainly helped that Tee Higgins has been available in three of Cincinnati’s four wins this season.

The Bengals are 3-2 with Higgins in the lineup.

They’re 1-3 when he’s not available to play.

It’s important to preface any Thursday Night Football game breakdown with those splits since it appears Cincinnati will be without Higgins again tonight.

Higgins is officially listed as doubtful with a quadricep injury.

Considering he has not practiced on a short week, it’s more likely than not that he does not suit up tonight. 

The Baltimore Ravens are currently a 5.5-point favourite for tonight’s game against the Bengals at FanDuel. 

Burrow is 12-3 against the spread as an underdog of three points or more in his career, but can he deliver again without one of his best receivers in the lineup?

This is the Morning Coffee for Thursday November 7th, 2024.

Burrow’s Bengals Brace For Another Tough Test In Baltimore

The Bengals are undoubtedly a better football team when Higgins is in the lineup.

At the same time, it’s interesting to note that they still haven’t won a game against an opponent with a winning record this season regardless of Higgins’ status.

Cincinnati is 0-4 straight up against opponents with a winning record.

The Bengals have gone 2-2 against the spread in those four losses, including a 41-38 overtime loss to the Ravens back in Week 5.

Burrow threw for 392 yards and five touchdowns in that overtime loss. 

Higgins accounted for 83 yards and two touchdowns on nine receptions.

Without Higgins in the lineup, somebody else is going to have to step up for Cincinnati tonight.

Running back Zack Moss is sidelined with an injury, while Chase Brown will play through a rib injury after a full week of practice.

Brown had 54 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in that first game against Baltimore.

It will be interesting to see how big of an impact the injury has on his performance on a short week tonight.

All eyes will be on Ja’Marr Chase and Mike Gesicki, but the Bengals will also need all they can get from Brown, Andrei Iosivas and Jermaine Burton to have a chance. 

I don’t see a number for Burton anywhere this morning, but I’ll be looking out for it at FanDuel this afternoon.

One thing I do expect tonight is Burrow to throw the ball a lot.

He completed 30-of-39 attempts for 392 yards in the first meeting with the Ravens.

He’s also averaged 26.5 completions the last two games.

Baltimore ranks 30th in the NFL in pass completions allowed against opposing quarterbacks.

They’ve also allowed the second-fewest running back rushing yards per game this season, signaling this is an obvious pass funnel defence.

I’ll take Burrow over 23.5 completions as a FanDuel Best Bet for Thursday Night Football.

I’ll also lock in a Same Game Parlay with Ja’Marr Chase to register 6+ receptions and Baltimore to win the game outright at -110 odds.

On the other side of the football, the Bengals defence will have a tough time slowing down the Ravens offence.

Lamar Jackson is a co-favourite to win NFL regular season MVP at +300 odds at FanDuel.

Derrick Henry is the favourite to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year at -150.

Jackson is 9-1 all-time in his career against the Bengals.

He threw for 348 yards and four touchdowns in the first meeting with Cincinnati while rushing for 55 yards.

Meanwhile, the Bengals did their best to limit Henry in the first meeting outside of a 51-yard run that accounted for more than half of his rushing yards in that victory.

While we should see plenty of Henry again at home tonight, I still believe Jackson will be their MVP.

Jackson is still very capable with his legs, but most casual fans don’t realize how good he has been with his arm.

Jackson has averaged 264.3 passing yards per game.

He’s gone over on his passing yards prop in five straight games, with 280 or more passing yards in each of them.

I’ll lock in Jackson over 230.5 passing yards against Cincinnati as a FanDuel Best Bet for tonight’s game.

Jackson has gone over this mark in five straight games, including 348 passing yards in a win over the Bengals.

He’s gone over this mark in each of his last three games against Cincinnati, who held up well against Henry in their last meeting but got torched through the air.

Ravens games are 4-0 to the over against opponents with losing records this season, while Bengals games are 4-0 to the over when they face opponents with a winning record.

The total for tonight’s game has already ticked up from 50.5 to 52.5, signalling bettors are expecting a high scoring game tonight.

Jackson and Burrow should put up big passing numbers.

It’s also worth pointing out the role that Zay Flowers has played taking this Baltimore offence to another level this season. 

Jackson and Henry are the superstars of this offence, but Flowers has also been outstanding this season.

Flowers went off for 111 yards on seven receptions in the first meeting between these teams.

He’s recorded 100+ receiving yards in four of his previous five games, with five or more receptions in each of them.

Cincinnati ranks in the bottom 10 with an average of 12.1 receptions and 143.3 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers this season.

I’ll take Flowers over 4.5 receptions as a FanDuel Best Bet.

I’ll also lock in Flowers over 59.5 receiving yards as a FanDuel Best Bet.

To recap, I’ve summarized my FanDuel Best Bets for Thursday Night Football below.

Joe Burrow over 23.5 completions
-110 SGP: Ja’Marr Chase 6+ receptions | Ravens win
Lamar Jackson over 230.5 passing yards
Zay Flowers over 4.5 receptions
Zay Flowers over 59.5 receiving yards

Hopefully, we can run the table with another NFL prime-time game sweep.

Obviously, I’ve ramped up the volume a bit after I went a combined 4-0 with my bets for Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football earlier this week.

Have a great day, everyone!