Morning Coffee: Can Lions clear remaining hurdles to claim NFC’s top seed?

The Detroit Lions have exceeded all expectations through the first 13 weeks of the NFL season.

Considering how the franchise has turned things around since Dan Campbell’s arrival, nobody should be surprised. 

The Lions have turned defying the odds into a habit since Campbell took over as their head coach back in 2021.

In the NFL, a team’s record against the spread is a clear reflection of whether they are exceeding or falling short of expectations.

A winning ATS record is a definitive indication that a team performed better than the market expected.

No NFL team has been better ATS than Campbell’s Lions.

Detroit is 44-19 ATS with Campbell as the head coach.

Not only is it easily the best record among active NFL coaches – it’s the best four-year cover stretch by any team in the entire Super Bowl era.

The Lions are 11-1 straight up and 9-3 ATS this season.

Campbell is an obvious favourite to win NFL Head Coach of the Year at +145 at FanDuel this morning.

And the Lions are the Super Bowl favourite at +290.

However, with five games remaining on their regular season schedule, there are still some clear obstacles on Detroit’s path to locking up the NFC’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

For as impressive as they’ve looked through 13 weeks, the Lions find themselves at a crossroads heading into tonight’s showdown with the rival Green Bay Packers.

With a win tonight, Detroit can inch closer to clinching a division title and the NFC’s top seed.

With a loss to Green Bay, the outlook for Campbell’s Lions would look very different 24 hours from now.

This is the Morning Coffee for Thursday December 5th, 2024.

Can Lions Clear Remaining Hurdles To Claim NFC’s Top Seed?

For the first time in franchise history, the Lions are the betting favourite to win the Super Bowl.

Detroit is the No. 1 ranked team in the NFL by DVOA.

In fact, the Lions rank among the top 10 teams ever tracked using that metric.

Still, there are three critical obstacles in Detroit’s path to an NFC North title and the conference’s top seed.

First, the Lions play in the toughest division in football.

Detroit clinched the over on its regular season win total (10.5) with last week’s victory over the Chicago Bears.

Despite an 11-1 record, the Lions are one game up on the Minnesota Vikings and two games up on the Packers for the best record in the division with five games to go.

The Philadelphia Eagles are also just one game back of Detroit for first place in the NFC standings.

With five games remaining, the Lions have three teams right behind them in the standings looking to capitalize should they stumble at any point.

They’ll host one of them as a 3.5-point favourite against the visiting Packers on Thursday Night Football.

Their schedule doesn’t get any easier down the stretch.

That’s another obstacle on their path to the No. 1 seed.

Detroit will face three of the top seven choices to win the Super Bowl over its final five games in the Packers, Buffalo Bills, and the Vikings.

The Lions will also have to travel for a cold-weather game against the NFC North rival Chicago Bears in Week 16.

They visit the San Francisco 49ers in Week 17 in an NFC Championship game rematch.

How many of those five games will Detroit need to win to lock up the NFC’s top seed?

Finally, the Lions are also dealing with some key injuries.

Detroit will be without star defensive end Aidan Hutchinson for the remainder of the year.

The Lions will also be without Taylor Decker, D.J. Reader, Josh Paschal, and Levi Onwuzurike for tonight’s game.

At full strength, Detroit is a legitimate contender.

Still, the Lions won’t be able to afford any more key losses the rest of the way as they battle for position in the NFC standings.

The fact that Detroit has exceeded all expectations and performed at an elite level is impressive.

The fact that the Lions haven’t locked up a division title and could fall to a Wild Card spot if they stumble down the final stretch of the season must be a concern.

Meanwhile, the Packers are sitting comfortably in a Wild Card spot at 9-3, but they’ll need a win tonight to have any shot at winning the NFC North. 

Green Bay has games remaining against Detroit, the Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, Minnesota and Chicago over the final five weeks.

If they upset the Lions tonight, the Packers could very much be in the mix for a division title by the time they visit the Vikings in Week 17.

That will be their mindset ahead of tonight’s game.

Detroit is currently a 3.5-point favourite at FanDuel.

In terms of a FanDuel Best Bet, there is the potential for both offences to put up big numbers tonight with the total sitting at 51.5 this morning.

We know that the Lions want to run the football.

Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combined for 138 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries in the first meeting.

I expect similar numbers from that tandem tonight.

While Montgomery has been excellent once again, I’ll target the 22-year-old Gibbs as the younger, more efficient running back on a short week.

Gibbs has averaged 6.0 yards per carry for 973 rushing yards so far this season – 253 more yards than Montgomery despite three fewer carries.

The 2023 first-round pick has rushed for at least 40 yards in every single game so far this season, including 65 yards on 5.9 yards per carry in the first meeting with Green Bay.

I’ll count on him for 40+ rushing yards tonight as the first leg of a Same Game Parlay.

For the second leg, I’ll go with Amon-Ra St. Brown to register 40+ receiving yards.

St. Brown has registered at least 50 receiving yards in five straight games.

He had seven catches for 56 yards and a touchdown on seven targets in the first meeting between these teams.

St. Brown should be motivated to deliver another strong performance tonight in a crucial prime-time game against a division rival.

I’ll lock in St. Brown 40+ receiving as a second leg.

Finally, I’ll wrap up the SGP with Jayden Reed 40+ receiving yards.

In the first meeting between these teams, Reed exploded for 113 yards on five receptions in a 24-14 loss.

That was with Romeo Doubs in the lineup and in weather conditions that were much worse for the Green Bay passing game than they will be tonight in Detroit. 

With Doubs out and better conditions, Reed could be in line for another big game against a Lions defence that has allowed a league-high 187.8 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers this season.

After registering at least 50 yards in four of his first five games to begin the year, Reed has topped that mark only twice in his previous seven games.

One of those games was against Detroit, and while the Lions have been solid at defending slot receivers since that last meeting with Green Bay, I think Reed could be a problem for them tonight in an important game.

I’ll take Reed 40+ receiving yards as the final SGP leg.

A Same Game Parlay with Gibbs 40+ rushing, St. Brown 40+ receiving, and Reed 40+ receiving at -104 odds is my FanDuel Best Bet for Thursday Night Football.

Have a great day, everyone!