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Morning Coffee: Chiefs An Overwhelmingly Popular Pick To Beat Raiders At FanDuel
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I’m struggling to decide if Thursday was a step forward or a missed opportunity.
I walked away from Thursday’s NFL games as a winner, but it’s hard to ignore the near misses that led to another big day narrowly slipping just out of reach.
In the early game, Jared Goff missed Jamison Williams on a wide-open deep TD pass in the first quarter.
In the late game, Jayden Reed caught only three of his six targets for 24 yards.
I needed 12 more yards from Williams and one more yard from Reed to go 7-1 with all my recommended plays for Thursday’s game.
Instead, I went a combined 5-3 overall, including an injury that negated any production I could have expected from CeeDee Lamb in the middle game.
The past couple of weeks have provided plenty of reminders that the margin for error is so slim.
The good news is that we’re in the green as we turn the page this morning with an opportunity to do even better handicapping today’s Black Friday game on TSN.
The temperatures outside are getting colder, but the coffee is hot, and we have an absolutely loaded slate of sports ahead of us today.
Let’s try to find some FanDuel Best Bet winners.
This is the Morning Coffee for Friday November 29th, 2024.
Chiefs An Overwhelmingly Popular Pick To Beat Raiders At FanDuel
Winning is winning.
Still, after a couple of big weeks already this season, it would be great to finish the month of November on a high note.
I imagine that’s what Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are thinking this morning.
Kansas City entered Week 13 with an NFL-best 10-1 straight up record.
At the same time, the Chiefs are 4-7 against the spread – the worst ATS record of any team that won 10 of its first 11 games in the Super Bowl era.
Kansas City is just 25-40 against the spread in games when it’s a favourite of at least seven points under head coach Andy Reid.
The Chiefs have also failed to cover the spread in five straight games, which is tied for the longest ATS losing streak since Reid took over as their head coach.
That hasn’t stopped FanDuel bettors from backing Kansas City to cover the spread as a 12.5-point favourite against the Las Vegas Raiders this afternoon.
Per the FanDuel traders, 65 per cent of the ATS bets are on the Chiefs to cover, driving the number back up from 11.5 to 12.5 over the past couple of days.
Meanwhile, Kansas City to win will be an overwhelmingly popular parlay leg this week, with 97 per cent of the money line bets on Mahomes and company to secure the victory over their rivals.
Mahomes has gone 11-2 straight up against the Raiders.
His 6.4 TD/INT ratio against them is the second-best mark in NFL history by any quarterback with at least 400 pass attempts against one opponent.
Remember, it was players from this same Las Vegas team that were seen on camera mocking Mahomes and the Chiefs after a shocking upset win last season.
Now Mahomes can secure his 100th career NFL win against the Raiders and inch one step closer to guiding Kansas City to the No. 1 seed in the AFC this afternoon.
In terms of a FanDuel Best Bet, I’ll start with Patrick Mahomes under 0.5 interceptions at -128 odds.
Yes, Mahomes has been uncharacteristically careless with the football at times, throwing 11 interceptions in 11 games.
However, it’s worth pointing out that after throwing nine interceptions in his first seven games, he’s thrown zero interceptions in three of his previous four games.
The Chiefs are a 12.5-point favourite at FanDuel, and with the potential for Isiah Pacheco to return this afternoon, we could see him team up with Kareem Hunt to run the football a ton in the second half of today’s game.
I’ll also take Noah Gray over 20.5 receiving yards.
Gray had three catches for 23 yards in the first meeting between these teams.
He’s gone over 20.5 receiving yards in back-to-back games and has a combined nine targets over that span.
Gray might not score two touchdowns again this afternoon, but he should be good for 21 or more yards.
Next up, I played Xavier Worthy over 32.5 receiving yards.
The rookie first-round pick has averaged 4.0 receptions and 53.5 receiving yards in his past two games.
Now he draws his best match-up of the three games against an opponent that he registered four catches for 37 yards and a touchdown against in the last meeting.
I’ll trust in Worthy to get me at least 33 yards today.
I’ll also play a Same Game Parlay with DeAndre Hopkins to register three or more catches, 25 or more receiving yards, and the Chiefs -2.5 on the alt spread at -130 odds.
It’s a little bit juicier than I would like for a builder SGP, but Hopkins has registered 25 or more receiving yards in every game he’s played for Kansas City.
He’s also secured at least three catches in three straight games.
I don’t mind laying the juice with this bet.
Finally, I’ve circled a Same Game Parlay with Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers to both finish with 40+ receiving yards at -110 odds.
That tandem combined for 110 yards on 11 catches in the first meeting between these teams.
Bowers has 38 or more receiving yards in seven straight games and 10 of 11 career NFL games.
He registered 58 yards on five catches in the first meeting.
Meanwhile, Meyers is coming off a season-high 121 yards on 10 catches against the Miami Dolphins and has gone for at least 49 receiving yards in seven of nine games.
The Chiefs are the best team in the NFL at limiting running back rushing yards and as a 12.5-point favourite, the Raiders will likely be playing catch up through the air for most of this game.
I’ll take their best two receiving threats to both finish with 40 or more receiving yards at -110 odds as a third and final FanDuel Best Bet.
To recap, here are my FanDuel Best Bets:
Patrick Mahomes under 0.5 interceptions -128
Noah Gray over 20.5 receiving yards
Xavier Worthy over 32.5 receiving yards
SGP (-130): Hopkins 3+ receptions | 25+ yards | Chiefs -2.5
SGP (-110): Bowers 40+ receiving | Meyers 40+ receiving
Hopefully, we can finish the week with a 5-0 sweep.
Have a great day, everyone!