Morning Coffee: Chiefs begin quest for historic three-peat as Super Bowl favourite
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The long wait has finally come to an end.
Exactly 207 days after the Kansas City Chiefs repeated as Super Bowl champions back in February, a brand-new NFL season is on the horizon.
In more ways than one, it feels like we’re picking up from right where we left off with one massive overarching storyline that will set the tone for the year.
Patrick Mahomes has already established himself as one of the most decorated quarterbacks in NFL history before his 29th birthday.
Mahomes will begin his eighth NFL season as the favourite to win regular season MVP at FanDuel.
Tonight, the two-time defending champions kick off their quest to do something that has never been done before.
Mahomes and the Chiefs are trying to become the first team in NFL history to win the Super Bowl three years in a row.
Not only are they chasing something unprecedented.
The expectation is that they will somehow find a way make it happen, the same way that they have found a way to win it all in each of the previous two seasons.
Kansas City is the Super Bowl favourite at FanDuel.
They’re also the most popular pick to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel with 11 per cent of the bets in that market.
In several respects, it might feel like a surprise if any team other than the Chiefs ultimately goes on to win it all.
That’s because this year’s team might be the best version that we’ve seen in Kansas City in the Mahomes era.
It was never my preference to go chalk, but after watching the Chiefs reload and address their biggest weaknesses in the offseason, I can’t convince myself to pick any other team to win it all.
Kansas City is my pick to win the Super Bowl at +550.
This is the Morning Coffee for Thursday September 5th, 2024.
Chiefs Begin Quest For Historic Three-Peat As Super Bowl Favourite
The Chiefs’ journey to a potential three-peat begins with an AFC Championship Game rematch with the Baltimore Ravens in the NFL Kick-Off Game tonight on TSN.
Kansas City is a three-point favourite at FanDuel.
That’s a slight tick up from the opener at Chiefs -2.5.
Per the FanDuel traders, 60 per cent of the bets but only 29 per cent of the stakes are on Kansas City to cover.
40 per cent of the bets and 71 per cent of the stakes are on Ravens +3.
The splits are a little narrower in the money line market, with 58 per cent of the stakes on Baltimore.
Meanwhile, FanDuel bettors are expecting a lower scoring game, with 71 per cent stake of the stakes on the total to stay under 46.5.
For my FanDuel Best Bet, I’ll offer up a Same Game Parlay with Mahomes to throw for 225+ yards and Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers to go for 40+ receiving yards at -110.
The Mahomes passing yards prop is up to 266.5 at FanDuel this morning.
That’s up from 258.5 on Wednesday afternoon.
The current number is much closer to my projected Week 1 over/under for Mahomes at 269.5.
Mahomes averaged over 320 adjusted yards per game last season.
I expect the Chiefs’ passing game to be a lot more explosive this season with the additions of veteran Marquise Brown and rookie first-round pick Xavier Worthy.
Plus, Rashee Rice made tremendous strides over the course of his rookie season and should pick up from where he left off.
Brown won’t play tonight, but Rice, Worthy, and veteran tight end Travis Kelce will.
The Baltimore defence is in transition with a new coordinator after Mike MacDonald took the head coach job for the Seattle Seahawks in the offseason.
The Ravens also lost Patrick Queen, Jadeveon Clowney, Geno Stone, and others on that side of the football.
Mahomes should be able to get me the 225+ passing yards that I need to hit the first leg of this SGP.
Then there’s Flowers, who has an over/under of 4.5 receptions and 53.5 receiving yards for tonight’s game.
My Week 1 over/under projection for Flowers is 59.5.
In last year’s AFC Championship Game loss, Flowers had five receptions for 115 yards and a touchdown.
He finished with 40+ receiving yards in four straight games to end the season and 14 of 18 games overall.
Baltimore brought in Derrick Henry as their lead back in the offseason and I’ll bet that they give him more than the six carries they gave to their running backs in the AFC Championship Game loss.
Still, I don’t expect them to just completely abandon the vertical passing game, where Flowers is their best threat.
Odell Beckham Jr. and his 64 targets are gone.
Rashod Bateman’s over/under is 30.5 receiving yards.
Flowers has the potential to gain 40+ yards on one catch, which he did with a 54-yard reception against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.
Plus, this should be a revenge game for Flowers after the way that his season ended in Kansas City.
Flowers should be able to get me the 40+ receiving yards I need to hit the second leg of this SGP.
I’ll lock in a Same Game Parlay with Mahomes 225+ passing yards and Flowers 40+ receiving yards at -110 as my FanDuel Best Bet for Thursday Night Football.
Enjoy the game, everyone!