Morning Coffee: Daniels Emerges As OROY Favourite After Epic Start To NFL Career

It’s a good thing that none of us in the TSN betting department are known for overreactions.

If that were the case, you’d be reading an article making the case for Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels as the NFL regular season MVP right now.

Yes, Daniels has been that good through the first three games of his NFL career.

I know it’s hard to watch every single NFL game.

If you have the time to go back and watch one game from Week 3, make sure it’s Washington’s win over the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football.

None of us that watched the tape will ever forget seeing Daniels make one play after another as he led the Commanders to a 38-33 win.

There was no way that a rookie quarterback was going to go into Cincinnati and lead a 7.5-point underdog to an upset win in prime time to send the Bengals to 0-3.

But that’s exactly what happened.

The stats from Monday’s win jump off the page and after going back and watching the game from start to finish it’s abundantly clear that the hype around Daniels is justified.

Daniels has emerged as the favourite to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award at FanDuel.

If he performs the way that he has the past two weeks again this Sunday versus the Arizona Cardinals, we’ll all be talking on Monday about how Daniels led the Commanders to another upset win.

This is the Morning Coffee for Wednesday September 25th, 2024.

Daniels Emerges As OROY Favourite After Epic Start To NFL Career

Daniels to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year could be found as high as +600 at FanDuel in late August.

After leading Washington to back-to-back wins over the New York Giants and Cincinnati Bengals, Daniels is now the favourite to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year at FanDuel this morning.

In a Week 2 win over the Giants, Daniels went 23-of-29 for 226 yards and ran for another 44 yards on the ground.

It was an impressive performance in the first win of his NFL career, but it wasn’t enough to convince most of the betting public that the Commanders would cover as a 7.5-point underdog in Cincinnati on Monday Night Football in Week 2.

60 per cent of the bets at FanDuel were on the Bengals to win and cover.

Washington didn’t just cover the 7.5.

The Commanders won outright as a +285 underdog thanks in large part to a brilliant performance by Daniels.

The rookie second-overall pick went 21-of-23 for 254 yards with two touchdowns and zero turnovers.

Daniels completed a ridiculous 91.3 per cent of his pass attempts to set the NFL record for the highest completion percentage by a rookie QB in any game in NFL history.

He also ran for 39 yards and his third rushing score of the season, following 2012 Rookie of the Year winner Robert Griffin III as the only players in NFL history with 600 passing yards and three rushing touchdowns in their first three NFL starts.

Excluding drives that ended with time expiring in a half, Daniels has led Washington on 14 consecutive scoring drives dating back to the final drive of Week 1. 

That’s the longest such streak by a rookie QB over the last 45 seasons.

The Commanders aren’t sheltering him from pressure situations, either.

Washington is 5-for-5 on fourth-down conversions this season – tied with the Buffalo Bills for the most attempts without a fail by any team in the NFL.

In case you missed it, Buffalo’s QB is now a co-favourite to win NFL regular season MVP at FanDuel.

Besides Josh Allen, I’m not sure that there’s another quarterback in the NFL that has been more impressive than Daniels, especially considering that we’re talking about his first three-career NFL starts. 

The 23-year-old leads the league with an 80.3 per cent completion rate that is the second-highest mark through a player’s first three games of a season in NFL history behind only Drew Brees.

When he’s not making plays with his arm, he’s averaging 57.0 rushing yards per game – the second-best mark in the entire NFL behind only Lamar Jackson this season.

The Commanders and their fans must be thrilled with what they have seen from their rookie quarterback.

I know that it’s only three games and he has a long year ahead of him, but I’m thrilled by the prospect of Daniels continuing to build off what I’ve seen from him so far.

I expect Daniels to build off his strong start in Week 4 when Washington travels to face Arizona on Sunday.

The Cardinals are coming off a 20-13 loss to the Detroit Lions in which they allowed a total of 187 rushing yards on 43 attempts.

Taking a closer look at the numbers, it’s clear that the Arizona defence is susceptible against opponents that can run the football.

In Week 1, they allowed Allen to rush for 39 yards and two touchdowns while giving up a total of 130 yards on 33 total carries in a 34-28 loss.

In Week 2, they didn’t have to worry nearly as much about stopping the run as Blake Corum and Kyren Williams struggled to find space behind an injury-ravaged offensive line for the Los Angeles Rams and they cruised to a 41-10 win at home.

Then they allowed David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs to average 4.8 yards per carry in a Week 3 loss to Detroit.

Even Lions quarterback Jared Goff got into the action.

The Commanders rank fifth in the NFL with an average of 153.7 rushing yards per game this season and their six rushing touchdowns are tied for the second-most through three games in franchise history. 

Washington will lean on the legs of Daniels and running back Brian Robinson Jr., who wasn’t great against Cincinnati but did rush for 133 yards and a touchdown against the Giants in Week 2.

Robinson has been excellent after contact this season and that should continue in Arizona this weekend.

On the other side of the ball, the Commanders will be in tough to slow down Kyler Murray, who has shown flashes of his elite potential over the first three weeks.

The good news for Washington is that Murray might be without his top receiving threat in tight end Trey McBride, who suffered a concussion in the loss to Detroit.

The Arizona offence really hit a wall in the second half against the Lions and while I expect them to bounce back against this Commanders’ defence, I expect Daniels to keep Washington in that game the same way that he did against the Giants and Bengals the past two weeks.

If you missed it, please go back and at least check out the highlights of what Daniels did to Cincinnati on Monday Night Football.

If nothing else, click “play” on the tweet below.

At this point, regression is inevitable for the Commanders offence. 

It will be very difficult to sustain the level of efficiency that they’ve displayed over the past two weeks.

At the same time, the Cardinals defence might be the best match-up that Washington has faced this season.

For that reason, even if we do see some regression, I believe the Commanders will have a chance to win this game outright.

I’ll lock in Washington +3.5 as my first FanDuel Best Bet for Week 4 in the NFL.

Hopefully, Daniels continues to impress by adding to a remarkable start to his NFL career with another strong performance in Arizona on Sunday.

Have a great day, everyone!