Morning Coffee: Eagles emerge as Super Bowl favourite entering Championship Sunday

Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson.

As far as I’m concerned, that trio stands alone in a class of its own, with a definitive separation between them and the NFL’s other 29 starting quarterbacks.

At some point, perhaps Jayden Daniels forces his way into that conversation.

For now, it’s Mahomes, Allen, and Jackson at the top.

As it turns out, all three QBs play in the same conference.

That means only two can reach the AFC Championship.

And only one can make it all the way to the Super Bowl.

On Saturday, Mahomes and the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs punched their ticket to the AFC Championship for the seventh straight season.

The Chiefs have won eight straight playoff games, which is the third-longest streak in NFL history.

Their seven consecutive AFC Championships is the second-longest streak since the 1970 merger, trailing only the Tom Brady-led New England Patriots teams that went to eight straight conference championships between 2011 and 2018.

Meanwhile, Allen and the Buffalo Bills advanced to the AFC Championship with a 27-25 win over Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night.

While the Bills deserve full marks for an impressive performance, there’s no doubt Ravens fans were left feeling disappointed again after another promising season ended with falling short when it mattered most.

Next week, we’ll see Mahomes and Allen go head-to-head in another highly anticipated showdown between two of the league’s elite quarterbacks.

Only one of those QBs will get to the Super Bowl.

With Mahomes and Allen standing in the way of one another, neither Kansas City nor Buffalo is the betting favourite to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel this morning.  

This is the Morning Coffee for Monday January 20th, 2025.

Eagles Emerge As Super Bowl Favourite Ahead Of Championship Sunday

There’s no doubt Jackson is an elite NFL quarterback.

The problem is his inability to rise to the occasion when the margin for error is slim to none against his top competition in the postseason.

Let me give you some context.

FanDuel set Allen’s passing yards prop for last night’s game versus Baltimore at 238.5.

That number serves as a reliable benchmark for expectations.

Well, as it turns out, Allen threw for a season-low 127 yards in the win over the Ravens.

Meanwhile, Allen’s rushing yards prop was 47.5.

He finished with 20 rushing yards.

In a match-up that was billed as a showdown between two MVP-calibre QBs, Allen registered one of his worst statistical performances of the year in terms of both passing and rushing yards.

Still, the Bills never trailed in the win.

That’s in large part because Jackson had his first multi-turnover game of the season.

Then there was Mark Andrews’ first lost fumble since 2019.

Baltimore also had a season-high three drops, and that number does not include Andrews’ drop on a failed two-point conversion attempt to tie the game as it isn’t considered an official play.

In a game in which the margin for error is slim to none, the Ravens managed to make just enough mistakes to cost them a trip to the AFC Championship Game.

Don’t get me wrong – I’m not taking anything away from what Buffalo has accomplished this season.

The Bills beat the Ravens.

I’m just not sure that would have happened if the Ravens didn’t beat the Ravens, too.

Turning the page this morning, Kansas City is -1.5 for next week’s AFC Championship versus Buffalo at FanDuel.

Ironically, that’s the same number Baltimore closed at ahead of last night’s loss to the Bills.

Meanwhile, neither of the AFC’s top two seeds is the betting favourite to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel.

That’s because three of the NFC’s top four seeds have been knocked out, leaving the Philadelphia Eagles to host the Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship.

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favourite at FanDuel.

Washington is +220 to win that game outright.

Philadelphia is the betting favourite to win the Super Bowl at +180 at FanDuel.

Kansas City is the second choice at +220, followed by Buffalo at +250.

The Commanders are +750 to win the Super Bowl.

As somebody who predicted the Chiefs would beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl at the beginning of the year, I’m sticking with my pre-season pick.

I’ll also jump on Kansas City to beat Buffalo at -120 as a FanDuel Best Bet for Championship Sunday.

Only one of Mahomes, Allen, and Jackson can make the Super Bowl each season.

The margin for error will be slim to none once again when Kansas City hosts Buffalo.

Hopefully, Mahomes and company will make fewer mistakes on Championship Sunday.

Either way, we are in for a potentially epic showdown.