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For the majority of the 2023 NFL season, the Buffalo Bills were the favourite to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel.

While they enter the postseason as the second choice behind the Kansas City Chiefs, the gap between one and two will undoubtedly change after the Bills take care of business against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday afternoon.

The Bills opened as a 10.5-point favourite for their NFL Super Wild Card Weekend showdown with Miami.

While that number dipped to as low as Buffalo -9 at one point, it jumped all the way up to Bills -13.5 at FanDuel on Wednesday afternoon after it was confirmed that the Dolphins might have to start rookie seventh-round pick Skylar Thompson at quarterback.

Anybody who bet on Buffalo before the line move or tailed me on a money line parlay with the Bills and Cincinnati Bengals earlier in the week has to feel pretty good about those positions this morning.

Then again, I still think it’s fair to wonder whether 13.5 points will be enough to entice bettors to ride with the Dolphins this weekend.

Are you really willing to bet against Buffalo winning by two touchdowns?

This is the Morning Coffee for Thursday January 12th, 2023.

How High Is Too High For The Bills’ Spread At FanDuel?

Taking a closer look at the updated NFL Super Wild Card Weekend lines this morning, it looks like most sports books have settled on Bills -13 for Sunday’s game.

However, the spread currently sits at 13.5 at FanDuel.

If you want to bet on Thompson and the Dolphins to keep this game close, you’ll want to do it this morning at FanDuel before that number drops to 13.

As far as I’m concerned, I’m not satisfied with my money line parlay on Buffalo and Cincinnati. 

While I jumped on the Bengals -5.5 and the Chargers money line earlier in the week, I would certainly buy some Bills -9.5 if it was still available to me right now.

Over the past 30 seasons, home favourites of 9+ points are 11-0 against the spread in the Wild Card Round.

There’s going to be a ton of emotion in Buffalo this weekend, and the Bills have the potential to run up the score big time against a rookie quarterback that has thrown one touchdown pass in his career.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins’ injury report is a lengthy one.

Thompson is dealing with an ankle injury but managed a full practice on Wednesday.

Running back Raheem Mostert, tackles Terron Armstead, Brandon Shell and Kendall Lamm, and linebackers Melvin Ingram and Bradley Chubb all did not practice due to injuries.

Wide receiver Jaylen Waddle was limited with an ankle injury.

There’s still a chance that Bridgewater could start for Miami, and that’s probably the only reason why I still haven’t pulled the trigger on another bet on Buffalo against the spread or an alternate spread.

Instead, I’m going to place a bet on the Bills’ team total this morning.

The bet is Buffalo to go over 27.5 points at -116 at FanDuel.

Remember, this is the same offence that scored 47 points in a 30-point win over the New England Patriots in last year’s Wild Card game.

The Bills scored 32 points in their Week 15 win over the Dolphins, and have scored 28+ points in six of their past eight games overall. 

The temperature is expected to be around zero Celsius with clear skies on Sunday afternoon.

With all of the injuries that the Dolphins have dealt with, I think the door is open for Buffalo to secure a lopsided and emotional win over Miami to kick off the post-season in front of the home fans at Highmark Stadium.

Give me Bills over 27.5 points at FanDuel for NFL Super Wild Card Weekend.

Elsewhere, the spread in the Cincinnati game is up to Bengals -8.5 from -5.5 earlier in the week.

The Chargers are -2.5 against the Jacksonville Jaguars – up from -1 earlier in the week.

To recap, I’m now on Cincinnati -5.5, Chargers money line, a Bengals-Bills money line parlay, and Buffalo’s team total over 27.5 points as my FanDuel Best Bets for NFL Super Wild Card Weekend.