Morning Coffee: Leafs strike first in Battle of Ontario; Habs set sights on upset in Washington

Leafs Nation, you waited a long time for a win like this.

Soak it in.

15 more, and the Stanley Cup is coming home to a party like nothing the city of Toronto has ever experienced.

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Ottawa Senators 6-2 in Game 1 of their Stanley Cup Playoffs first round series last night.

Any anxiety that burdened Leafs Nation pre-game was quickly put to rest with the statement win.

Mitch Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares, and Matthew Knies all scored for Toronto.

Auston Matthews didn’t find the back of the net, but the captain picked up two assists and was buzzing all night with a team-high six shots on goal.

Perhaps most importantly, Anthony Stolarz was excellent.

Stolarz stopped 31 of the 33 shots he faced in his first Stanley Cup Playoffs start.

His performance featured saves on several Grade A opportunities that had the potential to shift the momentum of the game in favour of Ottawa.

My biggest takeaway from last night’s win?

This was exactly the type of game Leafs Nation has grown accustomed to getting its guard up for in recent seasons and the blue-and-white responded with a dominant performance that will set a much different tone for this year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Toronto opened -152 and was bet up to -178 at FanDuel.

For perspective, the Maple Leafs looked so good in the Game 1 win that they opened -192 to win Game 2.

Toronto to advance shifted from -172 to -410.

Of course, nobody is going to write off the Senators after one loss, regardless of what happened last night.

Ottawa is +158 to win Game 2 and +315 to advance.

It’s just that anybody who expected the Maple Leafs to lay an egg in their first playoff game under Craig Berube completely missed the mark.

Instead, the blue-and-white delivered exactly the type of performance that will tempt their fans to believe this team has what it takes to make a deep postseason run. 

15 more nights like that and the city of Toronto will get a celebration that will make the CN Tower shake.

Leafs Nation, it might just be okay to dream big again.

This is the Morning Coffee for Monday April 21st, 2025.

Habs Set Sights On Upset Win In Washington

Speaking of dreaming big, Habs Nation has been buzzing for weeks.

The Montreal Canadiens completed their improbable turnaround from the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings to a playoff spot in regular season game No. 82.

The fairytale finish made Habs fans believe they can shock the hockey world again versus the Washington Capitals in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

It isn’t like it hasn’t happened before, either.

Montreal was +800 to make the playoffs at FanDuel.

The last time they faced the Capitals in the first round, the Canadiens were +420 to win the series.

The Habs trailed the Presidents’ Trophy winners 3-1 in that series before Jaroslav Halak shut the door on Alex Ovechkin and company the rest of the way as Montreal ultimately won in seven.

This time around, the Canadiens are +215 to advance.

Sure, the Habs are a massive underdog, just not as big of an underdog as they were back in 2010.

Montreal is +155 to win Game 1 tonight in Washington.

The Capitals are -188 to win tonight’s opener and -265 to win the series at FanDuel this morning.

For the record, I predicted Washington would advance in my Stanley Cup Playoffs bracket.

And I’ll be cheering for the Habs to win the series.

The Stanley Cup Playoffs are that much better when the Canadiens are in them.

Hopefully, they can give the city of Montreal something to celebrate with an upset win in Game 1 tonight.

Will Pistons End Their Postseason Drought Tonight?

While I watched every NHL game over the weekend, I couldn’t help but notice a trend betting the NBA.

It started with a bet on the Oklahoma City Thunder -13 against the Memphis Grizzlies.

I rolled over the winnings on the Boston Celtics -13 against the Orlando Magic.

Finally, I tempted fate with a bet on the Cleveland Cavaliers at -12.5 against the Miami Heat.

All three bets cashed.

I also bet a Same Game Parlay with Jalen Williams 20+ points and the Thunder half-time/full-time result.

Just like that I was 4-0 betting on the NBA Playoffs and interested in taking a closer look at the numbers.

As it turns out, big NBA favourites at FanDuel dominated their series openers.

In the series openers that featured a spread of six points or higher, the favourites went a combined 5-0 straight up and against the spread.

In Game 1s where the spread was lower than six points, favourites went a combined 0-3 ATS (1-2 SU).

Perhaps that early trend doesn’t continue, but it is worth spotlighting that the New York Knicks are a seven-point favourite against the Detroit Pistons.

The Pistons led New York 98-90 in the fourth quarter of Game 1.

Then the Knicks went on a 21-0 and ultimately won the game 123-112 and covered as a seven-point favourite.

Detroit has lost an NBA record 15 straight playoff games.

Will that postseason drought end tonight in New York?

The Pistons are +210 to win outright in the first game of an NBA Playoffs double-header on TSN.

If they pull off the upset win, it will be the first time this postseason that a favourite of six points or more has lost outright.

I’m tempted to lay the points with the Knicks.

Give me a follow @Domenic_Padula on X and I’ll let you know whether I come around to betting on that game.

A FanDuel Best Bet For Monday Night

With four games in the NHL, two in the NBA, and a full slate of MLB action, there’s something for everybody.

For my FanDuel Best Bet, I’ll take the over in tonight’s game between the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars.

Game 1 of that series was trending towards the under until Colorado scored three goals in the final 10 minutes of regulation in a 5-1 win. 

The fact that Mackenzie Blackwood and Jake Oettinger combined for several remarkable saves in the opener, combined with the sense of urgency Dallas will need, has me convinced we’ll see six or more goals tonight.

I’ll lock in the over 5.5 at -142 as a FanDuel Best Bet.

Once again, I’ll post my full card for tonight’s games on my X account before puck drop.

Have a great day, everyone!