Morning Coffee: Lions emerge as Super Bowl favourite at FanDuel

Only a select few NFL quarterbacks can truly do it all. 

Three of the very best call the same conference home. 

In the season opener, Patrick Mahomes completed 74 per cent of his pass attempts for 291 yards and a touchdown opposite Lamar Jackson for the Baltimore Ravens in the first of nine straight wins. 

Three weeks later, Jackson completed 72 per cent of his pass attempts for 156 yards and two touchdowns and ran for another 54 yards and a score in a lopsided victory over Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills as part of a five-game win streak. 

Seven weeks later, Allen went for 262 yards and a TD while rushing for 55 yards and the game-clinching score to improve to 9-2 and hand Mahomes and the Chiefs their first loss of the season. 

Mahomes was the MVP favourite at FanDuel in Week 1. 

Jackson was the MVP favourite at FanDuel after Week 4. 

Allen is the MVP favourite at FanDuel this morning. 

The Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens are a combined 25-7 this season. 

Baltimore is the only team from that group with more than two losses. 

The Ravens are also the only team from that group that has played the Pittsburgh Steelers, which improved to 8-2 this season with an 18-16 win over Baltimore on Sunday. 

A case can be made for each of Allen, Jackson, and Mahomes as the MVP favourite, which makes sense considering they are the first, second, and fourth choices to win that award at FanDuel this morning. 

Somehow, a bounce back performance in a win over the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars was enough for Jared Goff’s MVP odds to be cut from +4000 to +700 at FanDuel as the current third choice in that market. 

If you’re a regular reader of this column, you know where I stand on Goff as an MVP candidate. 

And while only one of Allen, Jackson, and Mahomes can make it to this year’s Super Bowl, Goff’s Detroit Lions are the clear favourite to represent the NFC in the big game. 

In fact, for the first time this season a team other than Kansas City is the favourite to win it all. 

The Lions are the new Super Bowl favourite at +420. 

All things considered; it makes sense that Detroit would be the frontrunner to win it all at FanDuel this morning. 

This is the Morning Coffee for Monday November 18th, 2024. 

Lions Emerge As The Super Bowl Favourite At FanDuel 

After a narrow comeback win over the Houston Texans in Week 10, Detroit responded with a 52-6 win over the Jaguars on Sunday. 

The 46-point win is the largest in franchise history. 

The Lions set a franchise record with 645 total yards, scoring a touchdown on each of their first seven offensive possessions.  

Goff went 24-of-29 for 412 yards and four touchdowns before sitting out the fourth quarter of a blowout win. 

That was welcome news for yours truly, as I cashed the Goff under 29.5 pass attempts as part of an 8-0 sweep with my best bets for the early NFL window on Sunday. 

For the record, Goff has gone under his pass attempts prop at FanDuel in eight straight games – the longest active streak in the NFL. 

Regardless, most of his counting stats are elite. 

Jahmyr Gibbs averaged 6.3 yards per carry and finished with 123 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. 

David Montgomery averaged 5.0 yards per carry on his way to 95 scrimmage yards and two scores. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams combined for 285 yards and three touchdowns in the most dominant performance that we have seen in the NFL this season. 

The Lions covered easily as a 13.5-point favourite – the biggest spread in any game so far this year. 

Detroit is down to +185 to win the NFC Championship. 

The Philadelphia Eagles are the second choice at +410. 

No other team has shorter than 8-to-1 odds. 

Contrast that with the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens each at shorter than 4-to-1 to win the AFC Championship. 

The Steelers and Houston Texans are each +950 to represent the AFC in this year’s Super Bowl. 

With seven weeks remaining in the regular season, an argument could be made that the Lions biggest challenge the rest of the way will be their ability to stay healthy. 

There’s no doubt that Detroit is one of the best football teams in the entire NFL. 

The fact that the Lions play in the NFC only helps their chances of reaching this year’s Super Bowl. 

The next step for Detroit is locking up the NFC’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage for the playoffs. 

If they Lions can stay healthy and clinch home field for the playoffs, the deck will be stacked against the rest of the NFC with the path to the Super Bowl running through Detroit. 

What about the AFC playoff picture this morning? 

The Chiefs are still the No. 1 seed in the AFC. 

If Kansas City manages to finish with the best record in the conference, will the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs really be a home underdog against any postseason opponent? 

Kansas City already beat Baltimore, but Baltimore already beat Buffalo, but Buffalo already beat Kansas City. 

Then there’s the Steelers, which just beat the Ravens on Sunday to improve to 8-2.  

Pittsburgh still has another game against Baltimore in Week 16 and then plays Kansas City in Week 17. 

The Steelers haven’t lost a game with Russell Wilson at quarterback. 

Mike Tomlin is the favourite to win NFL Coach of the Year. 

T.J. Watt is the favourite for Defensive Player of the Year. 

How far will Wilson ultimately lead Pittsburgh? 

What about a Los Angeles Chargers team that has won four in a row to improve to 7-3? 

Don’t forget the Texans, either, which are primed to improve to 7-4 with a win over the Dallas Cowboys as a 7.5-point home favourite on Monday Night Football. 

The AFC playoff picture is fascinating. 

I can’t wait to see how it plays out this season. 

A FanDuel Best Bet For Monday Night Football 

The Texans have become the forgotten team in the AFC following back-to-back losses and a season-ending injury to Stefon Diggs. 

Tonight’s game against the Cowboys looms large. 

The Texans are up to -7.5 against Dallas for tonight’s game. 

With a win, they’ll be two games up on the Indianapolis Colts for the best record in the AFC South with six games left on the schedule. 

In terms of a FanDuel Best Bet, I have three plays I like. 

Joe Mixon has registered 100+ rushing yards in every game that he has started and finished for the Texans except one. 

In last week’s loss to the Lions, Mixon was held to 46 yards on 25 carries – an average of 1.8 yards per carry. 

It’s a big reason why Houston couldn’t put away Detroit. 

Mixon was visibly upset on the sideline throughout the game. 

I’m positive that it will serve as motivation in another prime-time game tonight against a Dallas defence that has allowed 111.1 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs – the ninth-worst mark in the NFL. 

I’ll lock in a Same Game Parlay with Mixon 80+ rushing yards and the Texans to win outright at -120 as a best bet. 

I also like an SGP With Collins 60+ receiving yards and Houston to win at -110 as a best bet. 

The Cowboys defence has been torched through the air for 146.6 receiving yards per game by opposing wide receivers. 

Collins is five-for-five for 70 or more receiving yards this season. 

He’s recorded 86 receiving yards or more in every game that he’s started and finished, including 100+ receiving yards in three of the four games. 

The Texans have been cautious with Collins as he’s worked his way back from injury. 

He should be back at full strength and deliver again tonight in a Houston win. 

Finally, I’m on Rico Dowdle over 2.5 receptions. 

Cooper Rush struggled mightily in last week’s loss to the Eagles before he was benched for Trey Lance. 

I’m not convinced that he will be able to get the football to his receivers downfield consistently, even if Dallas falls behind in tonight’s game. 

Dowdle has 3+ receptions in three straight games and Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy has made it clear that he will be their featured back going forward. 

As a 7.5-point underdog on the road, I think Dowdle gets some work in the passing game and as a option to dump the ball off when his QB is under pressure.  

To recap, here are my FanDuel Best Bets for Monday Night Football: 

SGP: Texans ML | Mixon 80+ rushing (-120) 

SGP: Texans ML | Collins 60+ receiving (-110) 

Rico Dowdle over 2.5 receptions 

Hopefully, we can end Week 11 with another NFL prime-time game sweep. 

Have a great day, everyone!