Morning Coffee: Maple Leafs a popular bet to end the Battle of Ontario tonight

The Battle of Ontario has lit a spark in Leafs Nation.

Toronto’s hardcore hockey fans can remember a time when their beloved blue and white absolutely owned its provincial rivals in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Two decades later, Leafs Nation is hoping that a rivalry renewed represents the start of something special.

The Toronto Maple Leafs can advance to Round 2 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs with a win over the Ottawa Senators in Game 5 on home ice tonight.

Exactly two years to the day that they clinched their last postseason series win over the Tampa Bay Lightning in the spring of 2023, Leafs Nation has the champagne on ice in anticipation that tonight is the night they clinch.

From the St. Lawrence Market to Scarborough, the city of Toronto is absolutely buzzing with the type of electricity that only their beloved Maple Leafs can spark.

Will the rival Senators spoil the celebration and send the series back to Ottawa with an upset win in Game 5?

Or will the latest chapter in the Battle of Ontario come to an end tonight with the Maple Leafs on top once again? 

This is the Morning Coffee for Tuesday April 29th, 2025.

Maple Leafs A Popular Bet To End The Battle of Ontario Tonight

It would be easy to forgive even the most passionate Maple Leafs fans for feeling a little bit anxious about their chances to clinch the series tonight on home ice.

Toronto hockey fans have the scars to prove their loyalty.

Hopefully, for their sake, they won’t be put through the ringer once again in the first round.

Over the last two decades, the Maple Leafs are 1-13 in potential series-clinching playoff games.

Toronto has also lost five straight series-clinching games played on home ice in a best-of-seven series – tied for the third-longest streak in Stanley Cup Playoffs history.

The last time the blue and white clinched a postseason series on home ice was in 2004 against – you guessed it – the rival Senators.

It also doesn’t help that the Maple Leafs have lost each of their last three Game 5s when holding a 3-1 series lead, including twice over the last five seasons.

In 2021, Toronto led the Montreal Canadiens 3-1 before dropping three in a row as a heavy favourite to advance. 

It was a much different story in 2023, when the Buds lost a Game 5 to the Lightning, only to advance two nights later with an overtime win in Game 6 in Tampa Bay.

Sure, the Maple Leafs have been the better team through the first four games of this year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs.

That doesn’t change the fact that each of the previous three games were ultimately decided in overtime.

How confident are FanDuel bettors that Toronto will end the Battle of Ontario with a win on home ice tonight?

Per the FanDuel traders, 89 per cent of the handle is on the Maple Leafs to win Game 5.

Essentially, nine out of every $10 wagered on Game 5 at FanDuel is on Toronto to win.

That volume has led to the Maple Leafs’ moneyline odds climbing from -160 to -172 at FanDuel.

Meanwhile, a whopping 88 per cent of the bets in the puck line market at FanDuel are on Toronto -1.5.

In case you’re wondering, 83 per cent of the handle bet on the total is on the over 5.5.

Meanwhile, the Senators are up to +150 to win tonight and +890 to stun the hockey world and win the series.

The latter number represents a 10.1 per cent implied win probability.

So, they’re saying there’s a chance.

While I don’t want to get in between two rival fan bases, I did place a wager on Toronto to win Game 5 at -160 on Saturday night.

The Maple Leafs have the edge in talent, depth, and - so far in the series – they’ve also had the goaltending edge.

After one heartbreak after another in recent years, it seems like Toronto is finally poised to breakthrough.

What could possibly go wrong Leafs Nation?

I’ll lock in the Maple Leafs to win outright as my FanDuel Best Bet for tonight’s NHL games.

Hopefully, the Battle of Ontario ends tonight.