Morning Coffee: Maple Leafs a popular bet to win Battle of Ontario at FanDuel

The Battle of Ontario will reignite in just over 48 hours.

For the hardcore hockey fans that were fortunate enough to experience the epic provincial playoff showdowns that the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators delivered in the early 2000s, a series that comes anywhere close to resembling those unforgettable rivalries would be a treat.

The fact that one team will be skating with the burden of a hockey-crazed city’s inflated expectations on their shoulders adds to the drama surrounding this series.

Toronto has made the playoffs eight years in a row.

The Maple Leafs have one series win to show for it.

Over the last 12 months, how many times have you heard that all that matters for Toronto is what happens in April?

Well, the long wait is finally almost over.

And for Leafs Nation, Game 1 of the Battle of Ontario can’t here soon enough.

This is the Morning Coffee for Friday April 18^th, 2025.

Maple Leafs a popular bet to win Battle of Ontario at FanDuel

The Maple Leafs opened -141 to beat the Senators in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs at FanDuel.

Toronto to advance has climbed to -184 this morning.

To put those numbers in perspective, the Maple Leafs were given a 58.5 per cent implied series win probability when the traders at FanDuel initially posted their odds.

With 80 per cent of the early handle bet on the favourite, the FanDuel traders have adjusted the series winner odds, which currently have Toronto at a 64.8 per cent implied series win probability.

Of course, the guys in my group chats have a different perspective on the series.

The sentiment among most of the hardcore Maple Leafs fans that I know is that Toronto’s implied win probability should be much higher.

Their expectation is that the Maple Leafs will contend for a Stanley Cup this season, although nine teams have shorter odds to win it all at FanDuel, including three in the Eastern Conference.

Toronto won the Atlantic Division title and finished second in the Eastern Conference standings.

Still, the Maple Leafs have longer odds to win it all than both the Florida Panthers and the Tampa Bay Lightning at FanDuel this morning.

That illustrates the disconnect between expectations.

It could also add another layer of drama to the Battle of Ontario.

If Toronto takes care of business in Games 1 and 2 on home ice, then it might not matter.

However, if the Senators can steal one on the road, it will be very interesting to see how both Leafs Nation and the betting markets react.

Last night, Jay Onrait asked TSN’s Director of Scouting Craig Button about which players are facing the most pressure heading in this year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Make sure you listen to the clip until the end.

There’s no doubt about the pressure that Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and the rest of the Maple Leafs will face this postseason.

All eyes will be on that core group to see how it responds.

For the record, I bet Toronto to win this series.

In case you missed it, I included my early series winner picks in this column earlier in the week.

Maple Leafs -162 over Senators

Kings +115 over Oilers

Avalanche -110 over Stars

Golden Knights -235 over Wild

All three bets on the favourites are to win one unit.

The bet on the Los Angeles Kings is one unit to win 1.15.

The Maple Leafs have the deeper roster, the experience, home-ice advantage, and if nothing else the core group should have a sense of urgency entering this series.

For those that argue the past doesn’t matter, I disagree.

It doesn’t have to be a negative, either.

Why can’t the lack of past playoff success be channelled and used as motivation to prove the doubters wrong?

Toronto should beat Ottawa in the first round.

That’s something that I can agree with Leafs Nation and the betting public on this morning.

What could possibly go wrong?

Have a great weekend, everyone!