Morning Coffee: NFC East showdown looms large on Thursday Night Football

The Washington Commanders were considered an afterthought to win the NFC East this past summer. 

Three months later, they’ll get the opportunity to retake sole possession of first place in their division with a win over one of their rivals on Thursday Night Football. 

Washington is a half-game back of the Philadelphia Eagles for first place in the NFC East entering Week 11. 

The Commanders, which were the first team to go over their win total at 6.5 a couple of weeks ago, are down to +195 to win their division from +1000 in the summer. 

Washington to make the playoffs is down to -800 – an 88.9 per cent implied probability. 

Based on what we’ve seen from this team and their remaining schedule, it’s hard to imagine the Commanders missing the postseason at this point. 

At the same time, they might need to find a way to beat a legitimate Super Bowl contender twice over the final eight weeks to win their division. 

While the playoffs are now a very realistic possibility, an NFC East title might be too much to ask too soon for this Washington team. 

This is the Morning Coffee for Wednesday, November 13th, 2024. 

NFC East Showdown Looms Large On Thursday Night Football 

The Commanders have already exceeded all expectations with a 7-3 record entering Week 11. 

Washington is an NFL-best 8-2 against the spread. 

Quarterback Jayden Daniels is the overwhelming favourite to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and he’s already a top five choice to win MVP at FanDuel. 

Throws like this one below are just one reason for it. 

As highlighted above, the over 6.5 regular season wins is already a winner, and the Commanders are -800 to make the playoffs. 

At the same time, Washington is +195 to win the NFC East at FanDuel entering a showdown against the Eagles on Thursday Night Football. 

Early on this season, many wondered when we would finally see some regression from the Commanders. 

After Sunday’s loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, it’s fair to wonder if we’ve reached that point for Washington. 

Despite failing to cover the spread in three straight home games, the spread for tomorrow night’s game has already ticked up from Philly -3 to -3.5 at FanDuel. 

The Eagles are -240 to win the NFC East division. 

While they have played Philadelphia tough in recent years, the Commanders have lost five of the previous six meetings between these teams, including both games last season. 

Looking back at the numbers from last year’s matchups, it’s striking how Washington was absolutely burned by Jalen Hurts and the Eagles passing game. 

All things considered, we could see Hurts and company put up similar numbers this time around. 

In two games against the Commanders last season, Hurts completed 72 per cent of his pass attempts and averaged 319.0 passing yards and 3.0 touchdown passes per game. 

A.J. Brown averaged 8.5 receptions for 152.5 yards and 2.0 touchdowns per game versus Washington. 

DeVonta Smith averaged 7.0 receptions for 88.5 yards with a touchdown in the two games in the series. 

Interestingly, Hurts has thrown for 300+ yards only once this season – a 15-12 win over the New Orleans Saints back in Week 3. 

His passing yards prop is currently at 222.5 at FanDuel. 

It will be very interesting to see how the Eagles choose to attack the Commanders defence on Thursday night. 

Washington has been one of the worst teams in the NFL at defending the run. 

The Commanders have allowed 116.8 running back rushing yards per game – the sixth-highest mark in the entire league. 

Washington’s defence ranks 15th in the NFL with an average of 142.3 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers. 

The biggest question for me is whether the success they have had against the pass has to do with the fact that opponents have been able to run on them more than anything else. 

They also haven’t faced many top-tier quarterbacks since Lamar Jackson torched them for 323 yards with a 77 per cent completion rate back in Week 6. 

I believe Hurts and company will be able to take what they want against the Commanders defence on Thursday Night Football. 

I don’t want to wait for these numbers to climb any higher, so I’ll lock in a pair of FanDuel Best Bets for Thursday Night Football this morning. 

First up, I’ll take Brown over 80.5 receiving yards -110. 

Brown has gone over this mark in 5-of-5 games that he has started and finished this season with 100 or more receiving yards in three of those five contests. 

Philly’s superstar wide receiver cruised to 109 yards on five receptions in a blowout win over the Dallas Cowboys last week in a game that he sat out for most of the fourth quarter after the game got out of hand. 

Brown registered at least 130 receiving yards in both games versus Washington last season. 

He is primed to deliver another impressive stat line against a defence that plays man coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL. 

Brown over 80.5 receiving yards is a FanDuel Best Bet for me. 

Next up, I’ll lock in a Same Game Parlay with Saquon Barkley 60+ rushing yards and the Eagles to win outright at -130 odds. 

Barkley has averaged a league-best 127.3 rushing yards per game over the past four weeks. 

He’s recorded 60+ rushing yards in eight of nine games this season and just ran for 66 rushing yards against Dallas on Sunday in a game that he sat out for the entire fourth quarter. 

The Commanders should give the Eagles a toughest test than the Cowboys did on Sunday, so I’ll game plan for a full four quarters from Barkley against a defence that has allowed the sixth-most running back rushing yards (116.8) per game to opposing running backs this season. 

To recap, here are my FanDuel Best Bets for Thursday Night Football: 

A.J. Brown over 80.5 receiving yards -110 

SGP: Saquon Barkley 60+ rushing yards | Eagles ML (-130) 

There’s still the potential for me to add to my card for Thursday Night Football over the next 24 hours, so make sure to give me a follow @Domenic_Padula on X and check back in on this column tomorrow morning. 

As for tonight’s NBA and NHL slate, I’ll lock in an SGP+ that begins with Donovan Mitchell to score 15+ points and the Cleveland Cavaliers to remain undefeated against the Philadelphia 76ers. 

I’ll pair it with Sidney Crosby and Dylan Larkin to both record 2+ shots on goal in a game that should feature plenty of shots for both teams. 

Mitchell 15+ points, the Cavaliers to win outright, Crosby 2+ shots on goal and Larkin 2+ shots on goal on an SGP+ tonight gets me +104 odds at FanDuel this morning. 

I’ll lock in that ticket as Wednesday’s FanDuel Best Bet. 

Have a great day, everyone!