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Morning Coffee: NFL playoff races wide open after week 14 upsets
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The National Football League season is filled with unexpected twists and turns that bend the collective narrative.
With every upset, the eventual outcome seems that much more unpredictable.
On Monday night, the NFL gave us two games that kicked off at the same time in a prime-time window for the first time ever.
The New York Giants were a 5.5-point underdog against the visiting Green Bay Packers.
The Tennessee Titans were a 13.5-point underdog on the road against the AFC-leading Miami Dolphins.
Both of those underdogs won their games outright.
For perspective, a two-team parlay with both outright winners paid just better than 19-to-1 at FanDuel.
There were 15 games on the NFL Week 14 schedule.
Eight of the 15 underdogs won their games outright – the most in a single week this season.
Those upsets led to an already complex playoff picture becoming that much more complicated.
Heading into the final four weeks of the regular season, only two teams have officially been eliminated from playoff contention.
The stage is set for a thrilling road to the postseason, which just got a lot more interesting following a week that was dominated by the betting underdogs.
This is the Morning Coffee for Tuesday December 12th, 2023.
NFL Playoff Races Wide Open After Week 14 Upsets
Eight NFL teams entered Week 14 with a win percentage at .333 or worse.
Two of those teams – the Arizona Cardinals and Washington Commanders – had their bye week.
Five of the other six teams won their Week 14 games.
The Chicago Bears, Tennessee Titans, New York Giants, New York Jets and New England Patriots all won outright as underdogs of 3.5 points or more at FanDuel.
A five-team parlay with each of those teams to win outright paid nearly 350-to-1 at FanDuel (+34973).
The Dolphins were one of six division leaders to lose outright.
Miami was 9-0 straight up against opponents that entered the week with a losing record this season.
The Dolphins led the Titans 27-13 late in the fourth quarter, before a late collapse that led to them becoming just the fifth team since 2000 to lose outright after leading by 14 points or more in the final three minutes of regulation.
Meanwhile, Green Bay was 16-0 straight up all-time in the month of December under head coach Matt LaFleur.
While the Packers are still the seventh seed in the NFC following their loss to the Giants, there are now six NFC teams with a 6-7 record.
Nine NFC teams have between five and seven wins.
10 AFC teams have between seven and nine wins.
With four weeks left in the regular season, the NFC and AFC playoff pictures are wide open.
After one of the most unpredictable weeks of the year so far, the one thing we know for sure is that the path to the postseason just became a lot more interesting.
Dak Emerges As Favourite To Win NFL Regular Season MVP
Speaking of unpredictable, few would have expected Dak Prescott to be the betting favourite to win NFL regular season MVP entering Week 15.
Prescott could be found as high as 40-to-1 to win that award at FanDuel after the Dallas Cowboys lost to the San Francisco 49ers by 32 points back in October.
Two months later, the Cowboys are coming off a 33-13 win over the rival Philadelphia Eagles to move into a tie for first place in the NFC East, and Prescott is the MVP favourite at +155.
Prescott is already the sixth different player to be the favourite in the MVP market at FanDuel this season.
Just two weeks ago, he wasn’t even among the top-10 most popular bets to win that award at FanDuel.
Meanwhile, Brock Purdy is the second choice to win MVP at +175 at FanDuel.
Purdy could also be found as high as 40-to-1 to win that award.
Lamar Jackson (+550), Jalen Hurts (+850) and Josh Allen (+1400) round out the top five choices to win NFL regular season MVP at FanDuel.
While Prescott is the favourite, I still believe the MVP race is wide open heading into the final four weeks of the regular season.