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Morning Coffee: NFL Week 15 set to kick off with NFC West showdown
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If mistakes are life’s great teacher, then consider me a scholar in the betting field after Wednesday’s column.
It doesn’t happen often, but I certainly learned a lesson.
In the final minutes before I submitted my column, I swapped out Atlanta Hawks +8 at the New York Knicks for Zaccharie Risacher to go over 10.5 points in that game.
Call it a hunch.
A memorable hunch, in fact, but for the wrong reasons.
It turns out I swapped out the solution for the problem.
The Hawks went on to beat the Knicks 108-100.
The rookie first overall pick finished with a career-low two points on 1-of-8 from the field.
Sure, Risacher had scored 10+ points with 10+ attempts in seven straight games prior to last night’s action.
That meant nothing for the 19-year-old playing an elimination game for the first time in his NBA career on the road at Madison Square Garden.
Sometimes, the lights might just be a little too bright.
Speaking of lessons, anybody banking on Bill Belichick’s return to the NFL in 2025 must have been surprised to learn that he was taking his talents to Chapel Hill to become the head coach of the North Carolina Tar Heels.
After 49 straight seasons as a coach in the NFL, Belichick will start a new chapter with his first college football job of any kind.
There is a family tie, as Bill’s father Steve was a running backs coach at UNC from 1953-55.
What can we expect from the Tar Heels in 2025?
FanDuel was first to market setting North Carolina’s regular season win total for Belichick’s debut season at over/under 6.5.
I fell in love with football watching Belichick coach the New England Patriots, and I would have loved to see him back on the NFL sidelines.
Instead, I guess I’ll have a new favourite college football team to follow next season.
Go Tar Heels!
This is the Morning Coffee for Thursday December 12th, 2024.
NFL Week 15 Set To Kick Off With NFC West Showdown
The Los Angeles Rams are sitting just one game out of first place in the NFC West with four games to go.
They’re also one game out of the final Wild Card spot.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, their most likely path to the postseason is a division title.
They can certainly help their chances with a win over their division rival on Thursday Night Football.
FanDuel has the Rams at +156 to make the playoffs.
That number represents just a 39.1 per cent implied probability.
Not good, but better than the San Francisco 49ers, which sit at 6-7 entering Week 15 with no odds to make the playoffs available at FanDuel.
The Niners will wrap up their season against the Rams, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, and the Arizona Cardinals.
Even if they go 4-0 the rest of the way, they wouldn’t be guaranteed a playoff spot.
Still, if you listen to what George Kittle said after a Week 13 loss to the Buffalo Bills, you understand their team is still very motivated to finish on a high note.
The Niners responded with a 38-13 blowout win over the Chicago Bears in Week 14.
Can they parlay that victory into another impressive performance against a division rival on a short week?
I can’t bet on San Francisco to make the playoffs.
Even if I could, I wouldn’t.
That said, I think their offensive stars are ready for another “must-win” game at home tonight and they have an opportunity to make a statement while playing spoiler for the Rams.
In the first meeting between these teams, Jauan Jennings went off for 175 yards on 11 receptions in a 27-24 loss.
George Kittle and Deebo Samuel both missed that game.
All three players have the potential to go off tonight.
After all, Brock Purdy just threw for 325 yards and two touchdowns in Sundays’ win over the Bears.
Meanwhile, the Rams gave up 342 yards and three touchdowns to Josh Allen, while giving up 82 rushing yards and three scores to the MVP favourite on the ground.
My only concern is that we might see some rain tonight that could cause some disruptions.
Still, I feel comfortable locking in a Same Game Parlay as my FanDuel Best Bet for Thursday Night Football.
While the Niners pass attack was disrupted by the weather in Buffalo, Kittle has recorded three or more receptions in every other game this season, going 10/10 for 3+ receptions except for the blizzard game.
He’s delivered six or more catches in four of his previous six games.
He’s also recorded at least 40 receiving yards in 10 of 11 games this season, with the blizzard game in Buffalo being the lone exception.
The Rams defence has allowed an average of 5.5 receptions for 55.8 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends this season.
I’ll start my builder SGP with Kittle to register both 4+ receptions and 40+ receiving yards.
I’ll pair it with Jauan Jennings to record 40+ receiving yards.
LA has allowed a league-high 9.1 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this season.
Jennings, who just went for 90 yards on seven receptions in the win over Chicago, has recorded 4 or more receiving yards in five straight games.
He had 175 receiving yards on 11 receptions in the first meeting between these teams.
I’ll bank on him to get 40 or more yards again tonight.
To recap, the SGP is Kittle 4+ receptions, Kittle 40+ receiving yards, and Jennings 40+ receiving yards at -104 odds.
I’ll lock that builder SGP in as a FanDuel Best Bet for Thursday Night Football.
Have a great day, everyone!