Morning Coffee: Oilers odds surge following epic comeback win
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It’s the single most important question on the minds of Canadians across the country this morning.
When will Canada’s Stanley Cup drought end?
All joking aside, I know picking the Prime Minister is a big deal, and that the country’s future is at stake, but the group chat has devolved into polling for Maple Leafs versus Oilers as the better bet to win it all after last night’s spectacle.
Sorry Jets fans.
Trailing 3-1 late in the third period of Game 4 last night, the Edmonton Oilers could be found as high as +1800 to rally and beat the Los Angeles Kings at FanDuel.
A couple of Bouch Bombs later, the stage was set for Leon Draisaitl to cap off a thrilling comeback with an overtime winner to complete a four-point night.
In case you haven’t realized, as long as 29 and 97 are in the lineup, the Oilers can never be counted out.
Thank goodness for that, because I don’t need a vote to be sure that this country isn’t interested in watching a Stanley Cup Playoffs in which seven of the final eight remaining teams are based in the USA.
The last time a Canadian NHL team won the Stanley Cup, Jurassic Park was set to be released in theatres, Michael Jordan and the Chicago Bulls were on their way to a third straight title (the first time), and the defending World Series champion Toronto Blue Jays were in excellent mid-season form.
Brian Mulroney was Canada’s Prime Minister.
Sure, there are more significant things on the minds of Canadians across the country this morning.
But Canada’s Stanley Cup drought is so long that kids born in 1993 are now old enough to have their own kids who have never seen a Canadian team win it all.
The Oilers took a massive step towards avoiding an early exit with an electric comeback win on home ice to even the series at two games apiece.
Still, they have a tough test ahead as their series shifts back to Los Angeles, with a real chance that the list of Canadian contenders could be cut from five to one over the next few days.
This is the Morning Coffee for Monday April 28th, 2025.
Oilers odds surge following epic comeback win
The Montreal Canadiens and Ottawa Senators are staring down 3-1 series deficits in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
The last Canadian team to win it all – the Habs – have been skating like it’s 1993 since December.
However, after a 5-2 loss to the Washington Capitals on home ice in Game 4 last night, it seems like the clock is about to strike midnight on Montreal’s fairytale season.
The Canadiens are +1000 to advance at FanDuel.
That number represents just a 9.1 per cent probability.
Meanwhile, having the Battle of Ontario in the first round meant that one of the province’s two NHL clubs was destined for an early exit.
After failing to complete the four-game series sweep on Saturday night in Ottawa, the Maple Leafs will get as many as three more chances to advance, with the next opportunity coming on Tuesday night in Toronto.
For what it’s worth, the Maple Leafs are now considered Canada’s best hope at +900 to win the Stanley Cup as the fourth choice at FanDuel.
Only the Carolina Hurricanes (+400), Florida Panthers (+700), and the Colorado Avalanche (+700) have shorter odds to win it all than Toronto at FanDuel this morning.
Then there’s the Winnipeg Jets and Edmonton Oilers at +1100 to win the Stanley Cup.
The Presidents’ Trophy-winning Jets were in excellent shape after back-to-back wins over the St. Louis Blues on home ice to begin their first-round series.
After getting outscored a combined 12-3 in consecutive losses in St. Louis, all the pressure is suddenly on Winnipeg heading into Game 5 of a series that has been reduced to a best-of-three.
The Jets are -170 to regain control of the series with a win in Game 5 on Wednesday and -185 to advance to the second round.
Then there’s the defending Western Conference champion Oilers, who were on the verge of going down 3-1 in their series against the Kings before a remarkable comeback victory on home ice.
With the win, Edmonton flipped from a +180 underdog to a small -118 favourite to win the series at FanDuel.
The Oilers odds to win the Western Conference were cut from +800 to +500.
Next up, Edmonton will be small underdog for Game 5 in Los Angeles on Tuesday night.
With the federal election taking place across the country, it’s only fitting that Canada’s pursuit of the Stanley Cup is paused for one night.
Still, Canadians will have a keen interest in tonight’s double-header.
Maple Leafs fans will have an eye on the Battle of Florida, with the winner set to face the winner of the Battle of Ontario in the second round.
The defending Stanley Cup champion Panthers have an opportunity to push the Tampa Bay Lightning to the brink with a win on home ice as a -140 favourite.
Meanwhile, Jets fans will see a pivotal Game 5 between the Avalanche and Stars, with the winner of that series set to face Winnipeg or St. Louis in Round 2.
The Avalanche are -138 to win Game 5 and -176 to win the series at FanDuel this morning.
Colorado also has the shortest odds to win the Stanley Cup among the Western Conference teams at +700.
Maybe it’s the fact that I picked the Panthers to beat the Avalanche in this year’s Stanley Cup Final that has me concerned about the chances that we see either Toronto or Winnipeg makes a deep postseason run.
At minimum, I’d love to see three Canadian NHL teams advance to the second round.
Hopefully, that’s something all Canadians can agree on.
A FanDuel Best Bet for Monday night
If you follow me on X, then you know I’ve been burned by some bad beats in these Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Fortunately, the FanDuel Best Bets featured in this column have gone a combined 5-0.
That’s something I’m hoping to build on tonight.
For my FanDuel Best Bet, I’ll lock in a Same Game Parlay with Nathan MacKinnon to record 2+ shots on goal and the Avalanche to beat the Stars at -120.
MacKinnon has registered four or more shots on goal in each of the first four games of the series.
Sure, I’ve been burned by some shots on goal totals in these Stanley Cup Playoffs, but MacKinnon has been a volume monster with an average of 6.0 per game.
As Meghan Chayka highlighted, Colorado has dominated when Gabriel Landeskog is on the ice.
The emergence of a legitimate second line to compliment the top line with MacKinnon has provided the Avalanche with the balance I believe they need to win this series.
Colorado has led for 1:40:04 in this series, while trailing for only 1:02 of total game time.
Nothing from the first four games indicates that Dallas can keep up with the speed and depth of the Avalanche.
I’ll go with a Same Game Parlay that features MacKinnon to register two or more shots on goal and Colorado to win outright at -120 odds as my FanDuel Best Bet.
Have a great day, everyone!