Morning Coffee: Team USA an Overwhelming favourite for 4 Nations opener

If you read this column with your Morning Coffee on Wednesday morning, then you already know how fired up I was for the 4 Nations Face-Off.

If you tailed my best bets, you also netted a profit.

With the Super Bowl in the books, the NBA heading into its All-Star weekend, and still a couple of weeks to go before the start of the 2025 MLB season, sports fans in this country are looking for a little something special to get us through this cold Canadian winter.

If last night’s game is any indication, we’re in for an absolute masterpiece on the ice.

Mitch Marner was the overtime hero with the winner in Canada’s 4-3 win over Sweden.

Sidney Crosby turned back the clock with three assists, including the helper on Marner’s winner.

It was the captain’s third career three-point performance in seven NHL International Tournament games.

If he’s surrounded with elite talent, Crosby will produce.

Crosby also helped get the scoring going in the first period with an assist on Nathan MacKinnon’s opening goal less than a minute into the game.

In case you missed it, we were on MacKinnon anytime goal at +200 as a FanDuel Best Bet in this column on Wednesday morning.

After a profitable start to the tournament, it’s time to run it back and try to lock in another winner for tonight’s showdown between the United States and Finland.

This is the Morning Coffee for Thursday February 13th, 2025.

Team USA An Overwhelming Favourite For 4 Nations Opener

The Canadian men’s hockey team has been unstoppable when it’s at full strength at the international level.

Canada has won 17 straight men’s best-on-best hockey tournament games at the World Cup of Hockey, 4 Nations Face-Off, and Winter Olympics that involved NHL players.

Anybody who watched Crosby, MacKinnon, Marner, Connor McDavid, Cale Makar, and Devon Toews buzzing last night understands how dominant this group can be.

Canada jumped in front less than one minute in and never trailed in the win.

While they let a two-goal lead slip away in the third period, they might not have needed overtime if it wasn’t for a couple of highlight-reel saves by Filip Gustavsson.

The fact that it was their first game together in the middle of an NHL regular season makes last night’s effort even more impressive for Canada.

At the same time, Canadians aren’t about to overlook the talent that their rival teams will ice in the tournament.

That’s especially true after Canada lost Shea Theodore for the rest of the tournament due to injury last night.

We’ll get our first look at Team USA and Finland tonight.

While Finland entered the 4 Nations Face-Off as the biggest longshot to win the tournament at +1000, it’s a much different outlook for the Americans.

Team USA was a slight betting favourite to win the 4 Nations Face-Off at FanDuel a couple of weeks ago.

While Canada went off as the favourite to win it all last night, the betting margins illustrate just how torn the public is on which team will ultimately come out on top.

Per the FanDuel traders, 47 per cent of the handle was on Canada to win the 4 Nations Face-Off on Wednesday.

Team USA was right behind them with 46 per cent.

Meanwhile, Canada only had a slight edge in terms of overall bet splits with 42 per cent of the tickets compared to 40 per cent of the tickets on Team USA.

Canada came away from last night’s overtime win over Sweden with two points, which opens the door for either team to jump into first place in the standings with a regulation victory tonight.

As far as the betting public is concerned, the Americans should absolutely roll to an easy win tonight.

Team USA is -385 on the moneyline at FanDuel.

A $10 bet on the Americans to win would pay $2.60.

A Finland upset is priced at +300 this morning.

A $10 bet on Finland to win would pay $30 if they found a way to get it done in Montreal.

Per the FanDuel traders, 87 per cent of the handle in the outright winner market for tonight’s game are on Team USA.

94 per cent of the handle in the puck line market are on the Americans to win by two goals or more.

Meanwhile, the public also loves the over on the total, with 93 per cent of the handle on over 5.5 total goals.

In terms of a FanDuel Best Bet, I’ll lock in a Same Game Parlay that features Matthew Tkachuk to record 1+ point and Team USA to win outright at -106.

In case you missed it, Tkachuk has been on fire over the past couple of weeks with a six-game goal streak for the Florida Panthers.

He registered consecutive three-point performances in his final two games before the tournament to push his totals to seven goals and 13 points in his last six games.

Now Tkachuk will join Jack Eichel and Kyle Connor on Team USA’s top line at 5-on-5 with a chance to lead the Americans to glory along with his brother Brady.

He’ll also be in the net-front spot for a stacked power play unit that features Eichel, Auston Matthews, Jack Hughes, and Adam Fox.

All I need is Tkachuk to register a point in a USA win.

That said, I also bet Tkachuk 2+ points at +360 as value play that jumped off the page to me when I saw it.

Meanwhile, I’ll also recommend an SGP with Fox to record 1+ point and Team USA to win at -110 odds. 

Fox has slightly shorter odds to record a point than Tkachuk, but he’s still available at a much better price than some of the more prominent names on the roster.

He’s one of the most talented defencemen in the NHL, and he should have plenty of room to showcase his skill set partnered with Jaccob Slavin on USA’s top pairing.

Most importantly, Fox will quarterback that top PP unit that features Tkachuk, Matthews, Hughes and Eichel.

While I’m tempted to play his point prop at -148, I’ll tag it with the USA outright win as a second SGP wager.

In terms of an anytime goal scorer bet, I’d be tempted to jump on Dylan Larkin at +390 if he was in a bigger role, but it looks like he is set to split time with Chris Kreider on the fourth line in the opener.

Instead, I’ll stick with Matthew Tkachuk to stay hot and take him at +270 as a decent value bet for an AGS picks.

As for the Finnish side, it will be very interesting to see if they can weather the storm and play a competitive game.

One player prop that jumps out to me is Artturi Lehkonen 2+ shots on goal at -120 odds.

Lehkonen appears poised to skate next to Aleksander Barkov and his former Colorado Avalanche teammate Mikko Rantanen on Finland’s top line at 5-on-5.

Barkov is more of a playmaker than a high-volume shooter, which should benefit Lehkonen as he drives the net while sharing the ice with two talented linemates.

While Rantanen 2+ shots on goal is -320, Lehkonen 2+ shots on goal is available at a very reasonable -120.

Lehkonen’s top line deployment combined with the fact that Finland is expected to play most of this game from behind makes his anytime goal scorer prop that much more tempting at +470.

I’ll take a flyer with Lehkonen AGS at +470 odds.

I’ll also lock in Lehkonen 2+ shots on goal at -122 as a FanDuel Best Bet for tonight’s showdown.

Hopefully, we get another exciting hockey game tonight. 

More importantly, let’s cash these FanDuel Best Bets.