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Morning Coffee: The case for Lions’ Campbell as the NFL Coach of the Year
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Dan Campbell deserves the AP Coach of the Year award.
The Detroit Lions defence was completely ravaged by injuries, including the loss of Defensive Player of the Year favourite Aidan Hutchinson after only five games.
In their most important regular season game, that injury-riddled defence held a Minnesota Vikings offence that had averaged 25.4 points per game to nine points.
Campbell’s Lions went 2-0 against Kevin O’Connell’s Vikings this season.
That head-to-head record determined the NFC North division winner and the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
Detroit went 6-0 in a division that was considered the toughest in football and matched the Kansas City Chiefs for the best record in the entire NFL at 15-2.
Coaching in the NFL is about much more than wins, losses, and other conventional metrics.
The more I study the game, the more fascinated I am by the one factor that has stood out to me above all else.
It’s the strategic intent behind every decision.
In the NFL, coaching success isn’t just about what happens on the field but why it happens.
This season, I’ve gained a much deeper appreciation for the deliberate, strategic thought behind every move.
Strategic intent is one of many reasons why Campbell deserves to win AP Coach of the Year.
It’s also a major factor when it comes to my next FanDuel Best Bet for NFL Wild Card Weekend.
This is the Morning Coffee for Thursday January 9th, 2025.
The Case For Dan Campbell As The NFL Coach of the Year
It might be tempting to characterize Campbell’s coaching style as a sheer, ruthless aggression seemingly devoid of any strategic calculation or methodology.
Anybody that has paid attention to the Lions understands the exact opposite is true.
If you’ve listened to Campbell’s media conferences, you might have noticed how consistently he drops insights into the psychology that he has attempted to install in his players.
Everything that Campbell does is intentional.
Everything that Campbell does is focused on execution.
Over the last two seasons, no coach has made better decisions when it comes to going for it when they should.
His players know exactly what is expected of them and they understand that their coach will have their back and take extreme ownership of any potential failed execution.
Campbell’s approach has helped his team get to another level this season.
We’ve also seen the impact Campbell’s approach has had on other teams.
I thought Emmanuel Acho hit the mark with this analysis:
Watching Campbell’s Lions this season has reinforced for me the critical importance of intent in shaping both strategy and execution on the field.
That’s what allowed Detroit to go 2-0 against Minnesota, 6-0 in the NFC North, a league-best 15-2 overall, and lock up another division title and the NFC’s No. 1 seed despite dealing with an extensive list of injuries that primarily impacted but was not limited to their defence.
O’Connell, Andy Reid, Sean Payton, Jim Harbaugh, Dan Quinn, Mike Tomlin, and Sean McVay all deserve consideration for the award after impressive seasons.
Campbell deserves to be named AP Coach of the Year.
A FanDuel Best Bet For Wild Card Weekend
Five days of playoff football kicks off tonight with the College Football Playoff semi-final showdown between Notre Dame and Penn State.
The Fighting Irish are a 1.5-point favourite at FanDuel.
Next up, Ohio State will clash with Texas in the other semi-final on Friday night.
The Buckeyes are a 5.5-point favourite at FanDuel.
Ohio State is also considered the obvious FBS Championship favourite at -130.
None of the other three remaining teams is shorter than +400 to win the championship this season.
While I haven’t locked in a FanDuel Best Bet for tonight’s game, I did place another wager on an NFL Wild Card Weekend game.
I bet the Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 against the Houston Texans at FanDuel.
When it comes to strategic intent, I’d put Harbaugh right up there with the best of them in the NFL.
Think about where the Chargers franchise was six months ago.
Remember when Harbaugh was criticized after the team parted ways with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and replaced them with Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston?
LA’s win total was 8.5 at FanDuel.
Harbaugh led them to an 11-6 season, signalling the rebuild was ahead of schedule.
Now the Chargers are one win away from the AFC Divisional Round as they get set to visit the Houston Texans on Saturday afternoon.
While home underdogs performed well last season, it’s been the year of the favourite in the NFL and I think that trend continues in the first playoff game.
The Chargers delivered a league-best 13-4 record against the spread in their first season under Harbaugh.
Herbert is 11-5 ATS as a road favourite since 2022.
More importantly, Herbert looks relatively healthy compared to what we’ve seen from him at times this season, and LA is set up for success in the Wild Card round.
J.K. Dobbins is back to compliment what the Chargers have in the passing game with Herbert, McConkey, Johnston, Will Dissly, and Stone Smartt.
The Texans allowed plenty of big runs this season, so Dobbins could be a major factor in this game.
On the other side of the football, Houston failed to address concerns with an offensive line that gave up far too many pressures throughout the regular season.
With Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs sidelined by season-ending injuries, opposing defences were able to key in on Nico Collins to limit C.J. Stroud’s production through the air.
Stroud ranked 31st among NFL quarterbacks in EPA.
He could be in tough to move the football through the air against a Chargers defence that could still generate pressure up front while scheming to eliminate Collins.
I’ll take the better team and the better coaching staff to win by at least a field goal.
Give me Chargers -2.5 as a FanDuel Best Bet.
Have a great day, everyone!