Morning Coffee: Tigers, Mets continue to defy the odds

Is there a touch of October magic already in place that will deliver another unforgettable MLB postseason?

While the best teams in baseball have already punched their tickets to their respective division series, a pair of unlikely contenders have captured our imagination and climbed within one win of punching their ticket to the elite eight.

The Detroit Tigers and New York Mets just won’t quit.

Both teams were longshots to even make the playoffs just over a month ago.

Now both teams will have an opportunity to advance to their respective divisional round series with a win today.

How far will the Tigers and Mets go this postseason?

Nobody wants to rush to conclusions after Detroit and New York both pulled off upset wins on Monday.

Still, based on how they have performed over the past couple of months, both teams must feel confident in their chances to make a deep postseason run.

This is the Morning Coffee for Wednesday, October 2nd, 2024.

Tigers, Mets Continue To Defy The Odds

Full transparency – the MLB team I monitored the closest this season was the Chicago White Sox – and for good reason.

I faded the White Sox on their in-season adjusted win total multiple times over the second half of the season.

I also bet against Chicago constantly throughout the season on both the moneyline and the run line.

While I was much more enamoured with the White Sox futility than many of my co-workers that don’t bet on baseball, they weren’t the only team that caught my attention this season.

As recently as August 20th, the Tigers were four games below .500 and nine games out of a playoff spot in the American League.

Detroit could be found as high as +3500 to make the playoffs at FanDuel on August 22nd.

Since then, the Tigers have been the best team in baseball.

Detroit is an MLB-best 31-13 over its past 44 games.

Despite the brilliant finish to the regular season, the Tigers entered the playoffs at +154 as the biggest underdog to win a Wild Card Series and at +1100 as the biggest longshot to win the American League.

Of course, those numbers look a lot different this morning after Tarik Skubal pitched a gem in Detroit’s 3-1 win over the Houston Astros on Tuesday.

The Tigers’ odds to advance flipped from +154 to -174 following the Game 1 win.

Detroit can punch its ticket to the ALDS with a win in Houston as a +146 moneyline underdog this afternoon.

The Tigers’ odds to win the AL were cut from +1100 to +700, while their odds to win the World Series were cut from +3000 to +1700.

Detroit now gets two chances to clinch a series win with one more victory over Houston.

Regardless of what happens next, the Tigers have been one of the best stories in baseball this season.

Meanwhile, the Mets inched closer to the NLDS with an 8-4 win over the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 1 of their Wild Card Series.

One day after a thrilling comeback win over the Atlanta Braves to officially clinch a playoff spot, their bats were booming again as they were the highest scoring team on the opening day of the postseason.

New York’s four-run win was tied for the largest in a postseason opener.

The Mets, which could be found as high as +830 to make the playoffs at FanDuel as recently as June 2nd, can clinch a spot in the NLDS with another victory in Milwaukee tonight.

For as talented as the Brewers are, they must be feeling the pressure now after becoming the first team in MLB history to lose four consecutive postseason games after leading all of them by multiple runs.

The Mets went from +115 to -320 to advance at FanDuel.

They’re also down from +1200 to +800 to win the NL.

While those adjustments come on the heels of one important road win in Game 1 of their Wild Card Series, the reality is that New York – like Detroit – has played excellent baseball over the past two months.

Maybe there’s no such thing as momentum in baseball.

If there is, you must believe it’s on the side of the Mets and the Tigers as they attempt to continue their improbable runs this postseason.

I’ll be cheering for both teams to get it done today.

Meanwhile, we cashed our second FanDuel Best Bet in a row to start the week with a play on the San Diego Padres to beat the Atlanta Braves outright on Tuesday.

I’ll be back tomorrow with a FanDuel Best Bet for Thursday Night Football.

Have a great day, everyone!