The Tennessee Titans survived one of the wildest games of the NFL season so far with a 34-31 win over the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football. 

Tennessee closed as a 6.5-point underdog and was +215 on the money line.

At the end of a week in which NFL favourites went 10-3 straight up and 9-4 against the spread entering Monday night, sports books undoubtedly needed the Titans to at least cover versus Buffalo.

After seven lead changes, which according to the Elias Sports Bureau is tied for the most ever on Monday Night Football, Tennessee delivered the outright win.

Derrick Henry rushed for 143 yards and three touchdowns – his third game this season with three rushing scores.

With the game on the line in the final minute of the fourth quarter, the Titans’ defence stepped up with a key stop on Buffalo’s final drive.

They got some help on Buffalo’s final offensive play of the game, as Josh Allen slipped on a fourth-and-one from the Tennessee three-yard line with 22 seconds left to clinch the victory.

While the analytics support Sean McDermott’s decision to go for it, there was bound to be at least a few Bills’ fans and bettors that weren’t happy with the call. 

Here’s the Morning Coffee for Tuesday, Oct. 19, 2021.

Titans’ defence delivers late

With 22 seconds left in the fourth quarter, the Bills had the opportunity to kick a short field goal and tie the game at 34.

Instead, McDermott elected to go for it and try to win the game right then.

Allen took the snap for a QB sneak, slipped and fell short of the first down.

Game over.

While McDermott’s decision to go for it didn’t work out, the analytics support the call.

If Buffalo settled for a field goal attempt on that play, their win probability would have been 42 per cent.

By going for it, their win probability climbed to 63 per cent.

The decision on its own was the right one. The lack of execution ultimately cost them.

Per ESPN Stats & Info, Allen had rushed 14 times on fourth-and-one in his career entering Monday night. He was stopped only once.

Allen had converted 13-of-14 previous fourth down attempts, including each of his last 10 rushes on fourth-and-one prior to that stop. 

His 24 first downs on all QB sneaks since 2018 are the most in the NFL over that span.  

Again, the fact that he slipped doesn’t make it the wrong decision, just the same as if they sent out the field goal unit and the kicker slipped it wouldn’t change whether the decision was right or wrong.

In the end, the Titans won outright at +215 for the biggest upset of the week.

It was a big one for the books, as NFL favourites still finished the week 10-4 straight up and 9-5 against the spread.

Overall, betting favourites are 43-51 against the spread this season.

Meanwhile, the total went over 53.5.

Unders still lead 50-42-2 on the season.

NBA opening night market watch

The 2021-22 NBA regular season has arrived.

First up tonight, the defending NBA champion Milwaukee Bucks will host the Brooklyn Nets in the opening game of the season on TSN.

As of this morning, Milwaukee is a 1.5-point favourite.

That number opened Nets -1 but flipped following the news that Kyrie Irving wouldn’t play for Brooklyn.

Over the past nine seasons, teams receiving their championship rings on opening night are 7-2 straight up.

The total for that game has dropped from 240.5 all the way down to 235.5.

After that, the Los Angeles Lakers will host the Golden State Warriors in the late game.    

The Lakers will be without Trevor Ariza, Wayne Ellington and Talen Horton-Tucker.

The Warriors won’t have James Wiseman or Jonathan Kuminga.

L.A. was a five-point favourite, but that number is down to Lakers -3 this morning. The total has dropped from 230.5 to 225.5.

Meanwhile, the Toronto Raptors are set to host the Washington Wizards in their season opener on Wednesday night.

TSN Edge’s Wesley Cheng made his case for why this year’s team should be able to go over its projected win total.

Make sure you check back later this morning for a look at Wesley and Fabio Lucarini’s favourite NBA win total bets.

I’ll post my favourite NBA futures before tip of tonight on Twitter.

Rangers upset Leafs in Matthews’ return

NHL favourites and underdogs split the four-game slate in the NHL on Monday night.

The New York Rangers upset the Toronto Maple Leafs 2-1 in overtime as a +160 underdog.

Auston Matthews had eight shots on goal in his return to Toronto’s lineup but was held without a point.

Artemi Panarin scored the winner for New York. Mika Zibanejad finished with a goal and an assist. Igor Shesterkin made 40 saves in the win. 

The Anaheim Ducks rallied to beat the Calgary Flames 3-2 in overtime as a +170 underdog.

Jamie Drysdale scored the overtime winner.

John Gibson made 41 saves for the Ducks.

Road teams went 3-1 on Monday night. The over/unders also split 2-2.

Red Sox hammer Astros again

The Boston Red Sox were +1100 to win the World Series after their Wild Card Game win.

They were +450 to win it all entering the ALCS.

After a 12-3 win over the Houston Astros in Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead, the Red Sox are now +240 to win it all.

After becoming the first team to hit two grand slams in a playoff game on Saturday, Kyle Schwarber hit another one in Game 3 on Monday night.

Per ESPN Stats & Info, Boston is the first team ever to hit three grand slams in an MLB playoff series.

When a postseason series is tied 1-1, the winner of Game 3 has gone on to win the series 69 per cent of the time. 

The Red Sox are now -210 to advance. Houston is now +175 to win the series down 2-1.