Morning Coffee: What happens after Bedard goes first at NHL Draft?

We are just over 72 hours away from the start of the 2023 NHL Entry Draft.

While the first-overall selection was practically locked in months before the draft lottery even took place, there’s far less certainty about what happens beyond that pick.

Connor Bedard will become the face of the Chicago Blackhawks franchise.

Which top prospect will go second overall? How high will Matvei Michkov be selected?

While Bedard will dominate the headlines as a generational talent, and rightfully so, this is an above-average draft class that will present very unique opportunities for franchises looking to turn their fortunes around.

Beyond the Blackhawks, which team will be the biggest winner of the 2023 draft? 

This is the Morning Coffee for Monday, June 26, 2023.

What happens after Bedard goes first overall?

Bedard will be the first name called at the draft on Wednesday night.

While there has been plenty of debate about what will happen after that, it appears more likely than not that the Anaheim Ducks will draft Michigan centre Adam Fantilli with the second pick.

At least, that’s according to the current betting odds.

Fantilli to go second overall is currently -380 at FanDuel. That number translates to a 79.2 per cent implied probability.

TSN Hockey’s Bob McKenzie had Fantilli at No. 2 when his final draft ranking was released last week.

So, no one will be surprised if the draft begins with the Bedard-Fantilli tandem going 1-2.

After that, Swedish centre Leo Carlsson is the favourite to go third to the Columbus Blue Jackets at -185 odds at FanDuel.

That number translates to a 64.9 per cent implied probability, which is a much lower probability than Fantilli’s odds to go second.

Carlsson was the third-ranked player in McKenzie’s final draft ranking, so I’m not about to suggest that the Blue Jackets will go in a different direction with the pick.

I’m simply pointing out the fact that while that Bedard, Fantilli and Carlsson are expected to go 1, 2, 3, FanDuel’s odds suggest that Fantilli is slightly more likely to go No. 2 than Carlsson is to go No. 3.

Meanwhile, Team USA NTDP centre Will Smith was the fourth-ranked player in McKenzie’s final draft ranking, and he is -150 to go fourth overall at FanDuel.

The fifth pick is where things get very interesting.

That’s where McKenzie slotted in KHL right winger Matvei Michkov in his final draft ranking.

However, FanDuel has Michkov at +240 odds to be the fifth overall pick, which represents just a 29.4 per cent implied probability.

Meanwhile, FanDuel has Ryan Leonard and David Reinbacher as co-favourites to go fifth at +190 odds.

Leonard is a right winger from the USA NTDP and is the sixth-ranked skater in McKenzie’s final draft ranking.

Reinbacher is the consensus top defenceman in the draft and is the eighth-ranked skater in McKenzie’s final draft ranking.

Will the Montreal Canadiens be interested in taking Michkov at No. 5, or would they prefer either Leonard or Reinbacher in that spot?

Will position matter when it comes to the decision that the Habs make with the fifth pick?

Or will they stick with the best available player in that spot?

What if the Canadiens decide to move the pick and another team ends up drafting fifth?

Leonard, Reinbacher and Michkov are all considered slam dunks to be top-10 picks on Wednesday night. Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson and Smith is still considered the most likely outcome in spots one through four, according to the current odds at FanDuel.

Then again, a lot can change over the next 72 hours. After that, things become much more unpredictable, especially once we get to that fifth pick.

Unlike last year, when we nailed Juraj Slafkovsky at +900 to be the first overall pick in the weeks before the 2022 NHL Draft, I haven’t locked in any big bets for this year’s draft at FanDuel just yet.

Make sure you give me a follow at @DomPadulaEDGE on Twitter for the latest over the next couple of days.

A FanDuel Best Bet for Monday’s MLB slate

For Monday’s FanDuel Best Bet, I like a big favourite to bounce back from consecutive losses against an inferior opponent at home tonight.

The Texas Rangers opened -198 against the Detroit Tigers and are currently -205.

The Rangers’ high-powered offence was just held to three runs in back-to-back losses to the New York Yankees over the weekend, but they have the potential to get back on track in a big way at home tonight versus Matthew Boyd.

Despite their weekend struggles, Texas still owns the best run differential in the majors with a plus-152 margin.

The Tigers own a minus-75 run differential and are 15-22 on the road this season.

When these teams met earlier this season in Detroit, the Rangers won two of three with a 17-9 run differential.

Texas has covered the run line in eight straight wins. I’ll trust the Rangers to do it again tonight with a bounce-back victory against the Tigers.

Give me Texas -1.5 -104 as my FanDuel Best bet for Monday night’s MLB slate.

Good luck to anyone who tails.

Let’s start the week off with a winner!