Morning Coffee: Will Lions cover as big favourite versus Bears?

The Detroit Lions are the Super Bowl favourite at FanDuel. 

At 10-1, the Lions are tied with the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs for the best record in the NFL this season. 

Kansas City’s point differential is +52. Detroit’s point differential is +177 – 71 points clear of the Buffalo Bills for the best mark in the NFL. 

The Lions have also been the most profitable team to bet against the spread this season. 

Detroit is a league-best 9-2 against the spread with the best cover margin in the NFL at 10.4 points per game. In fact, that’s the best cover margin by any team through 11 games since 2019. 

The Lions are 44-18 ATS under head coach Dan Campbell. To put that number in perspective, if they failed to cover each of their final six regular-season games, Detroit would still have the best ATS record in the NFL since Campbell took over as head coach. 

So why has the spread for today’s game between the Lions and Chicago Bears ticked down from Detroit -10.5 to -9.5 at FanDuel over the past 72 hours? 

As it turns out, there is respected Monday on Chicago. 

This is the Morning Coffee for Thursday Nov. 28, 2024. 

Will Lions cover as big favourite versus Bears?

The Lions are on pace to become the first team in the Super Bowl era to cover 70 per cent of their games over a four-year span.

Detroit owns the league’s best point differential and is tied for the NFL’s best record. 

Still, the spread for today’s game has ticked down from Lions -10.5 to -9.5 at FanDuel.  That’s even though most of the public is betting on Detroit. 

Per the FanDuel traders, 70 per cent of the early bets and 69 per cent of the stakes were on the Lions to cover the spread.

Eighty-four per cent of the stakes are on Detroit to win outright. That’s because there are respected bettors that backed the Bears at +10.5 and then again at +10.

Double-digit favourites on Thanksgiving are 23-0-1 straight up and 16-8 ATS in the Super Bowl era. 

The Lions haven’t been a double-digit favourite against the Bears since 1974. 

With respected money on Chicago to cover the spread, it looks like Detroit won’t be a double-digit favourite again today.

As for my FanDuel Best Bets, I locked in my first two plays in Wednesday morning’s column. 

I’m locking in another three FanDuel Best Bets this morning. 

First up, I’ll take an SGP with Keenan Allen 4+ receptions and Jahmyr Gibbs 40+ rushing yards at -116 odds. 

Allen is coming off his best performance of the season after hauling in nine catches for 86 yards on 15 targets in Sunday’s loss to the Minnesota Vikings. 

Allen has registered four or more receptions in four straight games. He’s been targeted 23 times in two games – 11.5 targets per game - since Thomas Brown took over as offensive coordinator. 

Now he faces a Detroit defence that has allowed a league-worst 15.3 receptions per game to opposing wide receivers this season. 

Meanwhile, Gibbs has rushed for at least 63 yards in 10 straight games dating back to Week 2. 

We know that the Lions want to run the football on a short week, and now they face a Chicago defence that has allowed 111.1 running back rushing yards per game this season – the eighth-worst mark in the entire NFL. 

David Montgomery is questionable with a shoulder injury.

Gibbs should be able to clear 50 rushing yards for the 11th straight game this afternoon. 

I’ll take Allen 4+ receptions and Gibbs 50+ rushing yards as a FanDuel Same Game Parlay best bet at -116 odds. 

I’ll also lock in an SGP with Jameson Williams 40+ receiving yards and the Lions to win outright at -110 odds. 

Williams has registered at least 79 receiving yards in all four home games this season.

He’s averaged 4.5 receptions for 94.0 yards in his previous two games. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown is questionable with a knee injury. Even if St. Brown plays through the injury on a short week, I expect Williams to hit a milestone he’s hit in every home game so far this season. 

Williams 40+ receiving and Detroit to win is -110. 

Next, I’ll lock in Malik Nabers over 57.5 receiving yards.  

Nabers ranks third in the NFL in targets this season with 103.

He’s registered at least six receptions and at least 50 receiving yards in four straight games. That’s despite not recording a first-quarter reception in any of those games. 

Giants head coach Brian Daboll said after Sunday’s loss that he needs to do a “better job of getting the ball in his hands early.” If that’s the case, 61 receiving yards is within reason versus Dallas. 

That’s especially true if Drew Lock starts for the Giants. 

Nabers had 12 receptions for 115 yards in the first meeting between these teams. He’s primed for another big game this afternoon. 

Meanwhile, CeeDee Lamb had seven catches for 98 yards and a touchdown when these teams last met. He’s registered five or more receptions in eight straight games.

I’ll add an SGP with Nabers 6+ receptions and Lamb 5+ receptions at +108 odds. 

Finally, I’ll add one more play for the Thursday night game. 

In case you missed Wednesday’s column, I’m already on Jonnu Smith over 40.5 receiving yards. 

I also recommended a Same Game Parlay with Josh Jacobs to rush for 40 or more yards and Tucker Kraft to record 25 or more receiving yards.

My final play is a Same Game Parlay with De’Von Achane to record 4+ receptions and Jayden Reed to finish with 25+ receiving yards at +107. 

Achane had four or more receptions in four straight games before finishing with three in last week’s blowout win over the New England Patriots. 

I expect more production from him in the passing game this week with the Dolphins being a 3.5-point underdog on the road. 

Meanwhile, Reed registered four catches for 78 yards on six targets in the one game that Romeo Doubs missed earlier this season.  

He’s cleared this mark in four of his previous five home games and gets a good match-up working out of the slot against this Miami defence. 

Here is a recap of all my NFL Thursday plays: 

SGP (-116): Gibbs 50+ rushing | K. Allen 4+ receptions 
SGP (-110) J. Williams 40+ receiving | Lions ML 
Malik Nabers over 57.5 receiving yards 
SGP (+108): Nabers 6+ receptions | Lamb 5+ receptions 
Jonnu Smith over 40.5 receiving yards 
SGP (-114): Jacobs 40+ rushing | Kraft 25+ receiving 
SGP (+107): Achane 4+ receptions | Reed 25+ receiving 

Hopefully, we can celebrate with a 7-0 day. 

Have a great day, everyone!