Setting The Pick – Let the tank-off begin

With 2025 officially here, I’d like to wish you a belated happy holidays!

Now that New Year’s Day has passed, it’s a good time to shift your attention to the upcoming trade deadline, which is exactly five weeks away (Feb. 6).

The NBA playoffs are slowly taking shape, and the true contenders are making themselves known.

On the opposite end of the standings, we’re about to witness a tantalizing tank-off, as teams prepare for a generational draft coming off the dud that was the class of 2024.

Inspired by the Raptors snapping their 11-game losing streak against a fellow tanking Nets team, here are my power rankings for the teams primed to snag Cooper Flagg, the projected first-overall pick in June.

Spoiler alert for Toronto fans – the team is too good when healthy to out-tank the following five.

First overall, Washington Wizards
Win total - 15.5

Jordan Poole has them in a pool party straight to the bottom of the deep end.

Coming off an inspired victory over the Chicago Bulls on New Year’s Day, don’t be fooled by the distraction. Washington is playing to lose.

The Wizards surprisingly don’t own the league’s worst record at the moment, but will quickly be surpassed by the Pelicans, who have endured terrible injury luck.

At 25, Poole is the wily veteran of a starting five that features two rookies, a sophomore, and a player on his third team in four seasons.

Of the remaining bench players, the actual veterans have seen their names consistently floated in trade rumours.

Jonas Valanciunas could add needed size for a contending team with his reasonable contract (three years, $30 million) while Kyle Kuzma is on a declining contract that gets cheaper over the next two years (three years, $64.5 million).

It’s one thing to own the league’s worst net-rating, but this team is worth betting against for their woeful defence.

The fact that they’re fourth in pace just cements the idea they can be attacked.

They allow the most second-chance points, the fourth-most in the paint, and own a bottom-four rebounding rate.

If they’re facing an offensively capable big man, that’s the chance to pounce.

Here’s the recent game log from opposing bigs:

Karl-Anthony Towns – 32 points, 13 rebounds
Karl-Anthony Towns – 30 points, 14 rebounds
Mark Wiliams – 16 points, 8 rebounds
Isaiah Hartenstein – 16 points, 11 rebounds

The Pick: PF/C overs against Washington

Second overall, Brooklyn Nets
Win total - 22.5

Actions speak louder than words.

General manager Sean Marks has shipped off Dennis Schroder and Dorian Finney-Smith in recent weeks, getting D’Angelo Russell and several second-round draft picks in exchange.

Those two were having a major impact on their early winning ways, and Brooklyn was having none of that.

This all aligns with the bigger moves they made earlier in the year, re-acquiring the rights to their own draft picks for both this season and next.

From Kevin Durant to Mikal Bridges, this team has waved the white flag and is looking to re-tool through the upcoming draft.

With Cam Johnson projected to be shipped out too, the Nets will be short on playmakers. Get ready for a lot of D’Lo and Cam Thomas.

How those two players will coalesce remains to be seen, but with those two handling the ball, I envision Ben Simmons’ role diminishing even further.

The former No.1 overall pick is officially a shell of himself averaging 6.5 ppg and 1.1 fta in three years with Brooklyn compared to 15.9 ppg and 4.9 fta with Philly.

For a team looking to wipe the books clean, they’d likely want to build up Thomas and Russell, who are at $4 million and $18.5 million respectively, as opposed to Simmons’ $40 million expiring contract.

The Pick: Under on Simmons points prop

Third overall, Utah Jazz
Win total - 20.5

Call it a hunch, but as destiny had Victor Wembanyama land in San Antonio, Cooper Flagg seems primed to be a Utah Jazz.

Last season, head coach Will Hardy had the Jazz playing out of their minds, finishing with 31 wins. This year, the team seems determined not to repeat history.

While Walker Kessler is individually one of the league’s best shot-blockers, their team overall is dead last in defensive rating.

For the majority of the season, their other four starters have been Keyonte George, Collin Sexton, Lauri Markkanen and John Collins – none who profile as All-Defensive Team candidates.

George has been given the keys to the team, yet he hasn’t taken the leap they were hoping for. Markkanen was handed a max contract this summer but is now six points below his scoring average from his Most Improved Player-winning season.

The Jazz are regularly handing out heavy minutes to newly drafted players like Cody Williams, Isaiah Collier and Kyle Filipowski, demonstrating their focus on development.

As a result, they’re getting a lot of sloppy play, leading them to last in opponent points off turnovers and on the fast break.

Teams and players that are defensively sound and capable of getting out in transition have made Utah pay.

The Pick: Tyler Herro, Trae Young, Devin Booker over points and assists

Fourth overall, Charlotte Hornets
Win total - 21.5

This group isn’t ready for winning basketball.

LaMelo Ball will be the captain of the “he was a problem” team in 10 years from now.

The roster is undeniably talented but can’t seem to put together a stretch of consistent performances. A lot of that variance comes with their style of play.

Charlotte is third in the NBA at 42.1 three-pointers a night and is deservedly responsible for much of the negativity you hear about the long ball killing basketball.

When a team like Boston shoots 50 a night it makes sense because they have capable shooters. The Hornets struggle to justify their volume when their 34.3 per cent rate sits eighth-worst in the NBA.

Hate it or love it, Charlotte has decided to live beyond the arc.

Ball and backcourt partner Brandon Miller combine for 24 three-point attempts a night and sit No. 1 and 2 amongst all players (ahead of Steph Curry and Anthony Edwards).

Their three-point line sits at 3.5 almost every night, and against the right opponent, their volume will usual justify the over.

The Pick: Ball and Miller over three-pointers

Fifth overall, Portland Trailblazers
Win total - 23.5

Of all the teams on this list, Portland has had some of the most impressive wins thus far. They swept a back-to-back against Minnesota in November and have beaten teams like Denver, Dallas and Houston.

Their roster has flashes of brilliance, but the pieces don’t all necessarily fit together.

Like all tanking teams, you’re usually bad on at least one side of the ball. In Portland’s case, they own both a bottom-five offensive and defensive rating.

Of all the teams listed above, the Blazers could benefit the most from addition by subtraction.

There’s currently a three-way logjam at the centre spot between Deandre Ayton, Robert Williams and Donovan Clingan.

The alpha dog role in the backcourt is being fought over by Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson.

Role definition seems ambiguous and is likely capping their upside.

Not a single player averages more than 18 ppg. In December, they had six different leading scorers.

As the deadline approaches, I’d have my eyes on Portland as sellers. If one of Ayton or Williams is traded, there will be a narrow window of smash spots for Clingan to take some alt overs.

The Pick: Clingan over everything post trade