Five storylines that will shape the National Championship Game

Nearly five months after getting underway, college football’s longest season has two of its all-time winningest programs left standing, with Ohio State and Notre Dame meeting Monday night in the National Championship Game – the inaugural in the new 12-team playoff era – at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

It features two tales of resilience: The Buckeyes, who overcame a dismal loss to rival Michigan and avenged an earlier defeat to Oregon in a blowout at the Rose Bowl, and the Fighting Irish, winners of 13 straight while fending off injury-after-injury after an embarrassing loss to Northern Illinois in September left them clinging to life.

On paper, it’s a mismatch, with Ohio State currently an 8.5-point favourite at FanDuel. But banged up Notre Dame does have a path to victory.

Here are five key storylines that could shape Monday’s game.

1. Will Notre Dame be able to slow Ohio State’s explosive offence?

The Irish play more man-to-man defence than any other team in the nation, which plays right into Ohio State quarterback Will Howard’s hands. With true freshman standout Jeremiah Smith at his disposal, Howard has the best QBR in the nation against man-to-man, throwing nine touchdowns and zero interceptions.\

Texas was able to hold Smith in check (one catch for three yards) in the Cotton Bowl by playing primarily zone, and while that limited the Buckeyes’ big-play ability, it also opened the middle of the field for projected first-rounder Emeka Egbuka and created space for Carnell Tate to have his most impactful game of the season.

So how far will Notre Dame be willing to stray from its normal scheme?

The Irish lost star cornerback Benjamin Morrison to a season-ending hip injury in October, but three-star prospect Leonard Moore filled that void flawlessly, earning Freshman Defensive Play of the Year honours last Thursday. If Notre Dame sticks to man-to-man, he’ll likely draw the assignment of trying to slow Smith with an assist from NFL-ready safety Xavier Watts.

In Ohio State and Notre Dame’s matchup last season, Morrison limited Heisman finalist Marvin Harrison Jr. to three catches and 34 yards, and the Irish were mostly able to hold the Buckeyes’ offence in check in a 17-14 last-second loss.

This time around, they’ll have to be just as good – if not better.

2. Can Ohio State establish its running game?

The Buckeyes’ last national title came 10 years ago under Urban Meyer, when Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 246 yards and four touchdowns in a 42-20 win over Oregon. This time around, under Ryan Day, and with Howard, Smith and Egbuka, Ohio State won’t need such a run-heavy scheme –  but it certainly won’t hurt.

TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins form one of the best one-two punches in college football, but there was an underlying theme in the Buckeyes’ two worst offensive outings this season: an inability to run the ball with success.

In a nervous, 21-17 win over Nebraska in October, Henderson and Judkins were limited to 54 yards on 20 carries, and in that 13-10, all-too-familiar debacle against Michigan, Ohio State’s running back duo was held 67 yards on 21 attempts. In both cases, the inefficiency of the run game hindered the offence as a whole, with Howard throwing for a combined 396 yards and three interceptions in those games.

3. Can the Irish defence create another game-altering play?

Notre Dame leads the nation with 32 takeaways, and have turned those into an FBS-high 158 points, which is 52 more than second-place UCF. Outside of that loss to Northern Illinois in Week 2, the Irish have forced at least one turnover in each game.

That opportune defence has been at its best in the playoffs, with game-altering plays in each of the first three rounds:

- Against Indiana, Watts intercepted Kurtis Rourke in the red zone on the Hoosiers’ opening series. On the first play of Notre Dame’s ensuing drive, Jeremiyah Love ran 98 yards for the longest touchdown in CFP history, giving Notre Dame a lead it never relinquished.

- Leading 6-3 in the final minute of the first half against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, RJ Oben’s strip sack of Gunner Stockton set the Irish up at the Bulldogs’ 13-yard-line. A play later, Riley Leonard hit Beaux Collins for a touchdown that gave Notre Dame a two-score lead that essentially put the game on ice.

- Tied 24-24 with Penn State in the final minute of regulation in the Orange Bowl, Christian Gray picked off Drew Allar’s ambitious, cross-body throw to tee up Mitch Jeter’s 41-yard, game-winning field goal.

With a clear talent gap between the two teams offensively, Notre Dame needs to bait Howard and the Buckeyes into at least one mistake – and like they’ve been doing all season long, the Irish need to make them pay.

4. How impactful can Leonard be as a passer?

There were questions about Leonard’s passing acumen when he transferred from Duke last December, and his first year in South Bend didn’t exactly provide many answers. In the playoffs, Leonard was uneven – throwing a combined three interceptions – against Indiana and Penn State, and had just 90 yards through the air against Georgia.

Notre Dame is certain to try and set the tone on the ground against Ohio State, but likely needs to strike in the passing game if it wants to keep up the Buckeyes’ high-powered attack. With a makeshift offensive line, Leonard will have to be swift against a defence that has 16 sacks – including nine-and-half from edge rushers Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau – in three playoff games. He was good against Penn State’s press coverage – completing three of four passes of more than 20 yards through the air – but isn’t likely to have those same windows downfield against Ohio State’s zone-heavy scheme.

Despite his inconsistency, Leonard has proven to be timely – first, with that quick strike to Collins before halftime against Georgia, and then late in the fourth quarter against Penn State, when he found Jaden Greathouse streaking on a 54-yard catch and run that tied the game with less than five minutes to go.

5. Will the Buckeyes stifle Notre Dame’s rushing attack?

The Irish can survive another less-than-stellar passing performance from Leonard if they can stay on schedule on the ground, and subsequently, keep Ohio State’s offence off the field. But it won’t come easy against the best run defence in college football.

Leonard is an elite rushing quarterback, flanked by a pair of difference-makers in Love and fellow running back Jadarian Price. The problem? Well, Notre Dame’s backfield hasn’t played particularly well in the playoffs. Outside of Love’s 98-yard touchdown run against Indiana, the Irish’s top two backs have been held to 157 yards on 32 carries (an average of 3.0 – down from their regular season average of 7.2).

Leonard has rushed 866 yards this season and had a game-high 80 against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, but won’t go unnoticed by an Ohio State defence that has multiple spy options, including experienced linebacker Cody Simon and their talented safeties, Caleb Downs and Sonny Styles.