As the NFL wheel continues to turn, there are plenty of storylines playing out around the league that would have been considered unexpected at the start of the season.

Only four teams entered Week 10 with a worse record than Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers, which sit at 3-6 and are now set to host the Dallas Cowboys in the largest home underdog role they have ever been in with Rodgers at quarterback.

Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers got back in the win column with a comeback victory over the Los Angeles Rams last week, but Tampa has failed to cover the spread in seven straight games.

Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills entered the week as one of the biggest favourites on the board at FanDuel for Sunday’s game against the Minnesota Vikings.

However, Josh Allen is dealing with an injury to his throwing arm that could keep him out of the lineup, and the spread at FanDuel has plummeted from Bills -9.5 on the look-ahead line to Bills -3.5.

Amidst all of these unexpected scenarios, we’re all back this week looking to give out some winners that you can count on.

Here are our TSN EDGE staff picks for Week 10 in the NFL.

Domenic Padula: Justin Fields 60+ rushing yards vs. Lions

As somebody who faded the Chicago Bears on their season win totals, I’m in a tough spot here.

I pencilled Chicago in as one of the worst teams in the NFL this season thanks in large part to a new coaching staff, their lack of playmakers on offence, and a defence with a handful of key veterans that wanted out.

Unfortunately for yours truly, the Bears didn’t trade those veteran defenders until just before the deadline, which was enough time for them to help grind out three victories. 

More concerning for me is the play of Justin Fields, who has carried an offence that just went toe-to-toe with the Miami Dolphins’ loaded attack last week in a 35-32 loss.

Sure, the Bears added Chase Claypool before the deadline.

However, even before the trade we saw the Chicago offence really come alive, and it begins and ends with the emergence of Fields.

After recording 60+ rushing yards in three straight games, Fields exploded for 178 rushing yards and a score in last week’s loss to Miami.

That performance included a 61-yard touchdown run.

Now Chicago is set to host a Detroit defence that has allowed a league-worst 417.3 yards per game this season.

Fields has thrown the football a little more of late, but it’s his rushing ability that has been the key to the Bears scoring 33, 29 and 32 points over the past three weeks.

I think Fields will be in line for another big outing this week, so I’ll take him to go for 60+ rushing yards as my FanDuel Best Bet for Sunday’s NFL slate. 

Eric Cohen: Nick Chubb over 80.5 rushing yards

Nick Chubb is a rushing machine. The Cleveland Browns workhorse has gone over this number in every game this season except for Cleveland’s blowout loss to New England. Take away that game where Chubb rushed for 56 yards, and he has averaged over 112 yards per game!!! He averaged 5.6 yards per carry so it would only make sense for the Browns to feed him a lot to keep the Miami Dolphins high powered passing game off the field.

Speaking of the Dolphins, as Domenic Padula pointed out, they gave up 178 yards on the ground last week to quarterback Justin Fields. Pretty clear the Dolphins are having some issues stopping elite running attacks, so much so that their head coach Mike McDaniel pleaded with Fields to “stop it” as he was setting an NFL record against his defence. Over 42% of Cleveland’s yards on offence comes on the ground which could mean more trouble for Miami’s defence.

The Browns are coming off a bye so Chubb is well rested. As long as Jacoby Brissett is under centre no one would argue the best way for the Browns to win football game would be to make sure their offence goes through Chubb. This number seems way to low but these have been the numbers that have been posted for him throughout the season so until it is adjusted I will continue to ride Chubb’s rushing yards over!!!

Chris Amberley: Cleveland Browns +3.5 at Miami Dolphins 

Dolphins fans don’t want to hear this right now, but Miami is wildly overachieving. The Fins are 6-0 in one score games, despite boasting a bottom-seven scoring defence. Only five defences grade out worse per DVOA than Miami’s, and the team just surrendered 32 and 27 points respectively to the lowly Bears and Lions. Regression is coming.

Of course the Dolphins offence is responsible for their 6-3 record, but scoring should be tougher to come by this week against the Browns.

After a slow start, largely due to injuries, Cleveland has found its defensive groove. The Browns are now healthy and just held the Bengals and Ravens, two top-nine offences, below 255 total yards each before their bye week.

Offensively, the Browns rank higher than Miami in both points per game and total yards, and should feast versus this putrid Fins defence.

Cleveland has been a cover-machine as an underdog this season, posting a 3-0-1 mark against the spread, winning twice outright.

The Dolphins on the other hand, needed a miracle to cover two weeks ago in Detroit, which is the lone time they’ve beaten the spread in the last six weeks.

Evan Render: Saquon Barkley Over 95.5 Rushing Yards 

I know what you're thinking....

This seems like a super high number for any NFL RB to have as a prop total, even if it's for one of the best players in Football. The Texans have the worst rushing Defences in Football, and tryly one of the worst units i've ever watched attempt to stop the run. Here's where Houston's Defence ranks in the NFL.

Basic categories:

Total rush yards allowed: Most

Rush yards per carry: Third most

More advanced categories:

Rush DVOA (worst in NFL)

So we know if there's a unit that Saquon Barkley has the potential to absolutely gash, it's this one.

He's averaging over 97 yards per game on the ground this season, and hasn't yet had the chance to face this Texans unit after his bye week. It's a perfect spot for a monster game on the ground!

Saquon Barkley over 95.5 rushing yards (-114) on FanDuel is the play.

Connor Ford: Diontae Johnson Over 4.5 Receptions

Things haven’t been pretty for Diontae Johnson and the Pittsburgh Steelers this season.

The Steelers are 2-6 and on pace for their first season with a sub-.500 record since 2003. Johnson on the other hand, ranks 8th in the NFL with 76 targets, yet only has 372 yards to show for it. That doesn’t mean he can’t catch five balls on Sunday.

Johnson is a target hog. Since 2020, he has the fifth-most targets in the league, trailing only Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp and Stefon Diggs. Pretty good company. He also has 25 games with 10+ targets, which ranks first among all wide receivers.

Johnson only has one game with less than five receptions this season. If you go back to the start of last season, he’s had five or more receptions in 22 of his last 24 games. Trends aren’t everything, but that’s a streak that can’t be ignored. 

The Steelers are terrible at running the ball - they rank 29th in total rushing yards. That’s forced rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett to throw more often than the coaching staff would probably like. It’s also a result of the Steelers trailing in most games.  

While the Saints aren’t a smash matchup, the departure of Chase Claypool should open up even more targets for Johnson. While I’m not expecting a big day in terms of yardage, he should easily go over his reception total of 4.5 on FanDuel. 

Luke Bellus: JuJu Smith-Schuster Over 62.5 Receiving Yards 

The Juju Smith-Schuster era has arrived in Kansas City. 

The former Steelers wideout has settled into a nice roll in this Chiefs offence, making a huge impact over the last three games. 

Since Week 6, Smith-Schuster is averaging 7.3 receptions and 108.3 yards per game. 

During those games he's had at least five catches and 88 reciving yards in all of them. 

This week, they take on a Jags' team that is expected to score some points as the total of 51.5 is currently the highest of any game on FanDuel. 

With lots of offence expected, I like Smith-Schuster to go over this number for a fourth-straight week.