Morning Coffee: Allen, Bills look to end Chiefs dynasty

The Kansas City Chiefs began the 2024 NFL season as an obvious Super Bowl favourite at FanDuel.

With Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, a roster stacked with talent, and an elite coaching staff, the two-time defending champions seemed destined for a three-peat.

At the time, I predicted Kansas City and the Philadelphia Eagles would represent their respective conferences in the Super Bowl.

Four months later, both teams are set to host their respective conference championship games as the betting favourites to advance to varying degrees.

The Eagles are a 6.5-point home favourite against the Washington Commanders. The Chiefs are a 1.5-point home favourite against the Buffalo Bills.

While Philadelphia and Kansas City are the top two choices to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel this morning, I wouldn’t be surprised with any of the four potential outcomes for this weekend’s games.

The Commanders exceeded all expectations throughout the regular season and then pulled off back-to-back upset wins over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions to reach the NFC Championship.

Meanwhile, the number for the AFC Championship isn’t far off from a pick’em at FanDuel, as Josh Allen and the Bills attempt to end Kansas City’s hopes for a historic Super Bowl three-peat.

This is the Morning Coffee for Wednesday Jan. 22, 2025.

Allen, Bills look to end the Chiefs dynasty

As someone who has valued and respected excellence for as long as I could remember, I’ve never understood the disdain it seems to attract.

I’ve watched football long enough to remember when Mahomes was the loveable underdog chasing his first Super Bowl ring. A couple of rings later, that sentiment has changed to “please, anybody but the Chiefs.”

One of the toughest lessons I’ve ever learned was that there exists a certain type of individual who absolutely loves to witness the struggle and absolutely hates when it transitions to sustained success.

It’s the overachievers who ruin mediocrity for the rest. For as long as Mahomes and the Chiefs continue to dominate, there will be no room for another hero’s tale.

On Sunday, Kansas City will host Buffalo in its seventh straight AFC Championship appearance.

The Chiefs are now just two wins away from an unprecedented Super Bowl three-peat.

Now it’s up to Allen and the Bills to end the dynasty.

To end Kansas City’s unprecedented run, Buffalo will need to do something that has never been done before.

Mahomes is 3-0 versus Allen in the postseason. Mahomes is also a perfect 7-0 straight up and against the spread in the playoffs when he’s listed as the underdog or a favourite of three points or less.

He’s never lost before in similar situations. In fact, Mahomes has won 20 consecutive home games when the temperature is below four degrees Celsius in November or later.

The Chiefs will benefit from an extra day of rest after they beat the Houston Texans on Saturday in the Divisional Round. Mahomes is 32-7 all-time on extended rest.

Despite those overwhelming trends, I still consider Sunday’s AFC Championship game a toss-up.

I lean Chiefs as the two-time defending champions, with an extra day’s rest and home field.

That said, the margin for error will be slim for both teams, the same way it was for the Baltimore Ravens in their Divisional Round loss to Buffalo.

 
In terms of a player prop to target, I’ll lock in Khalil Shakir over 55.5 receiving yards.

Allen is coming off a season-low 127 passing yards in the win over Baltimore. Shakir still finished with 67 receiving yards, accounting for nearly 53 per cent of Allen’s total production through
the air in that victory.
Barring a disastrous performance by the Kansas City offence, Allen should have to throw the ball more often in Sunday’s game than he did against the Ravens. Shakir has 60 or more receiving yards in both playoff games. He also had 70 receiving yards on eight receptions when
these teams met in the regular season. Shakir was targeted 12 times in that win.

With a chance to end the Chiefs dynasty and advance to the Super Bowl, I expect Allen and Shakir to be at their absolute best once again on Sunday.

Give me Shakir over 55.5 receiving yards as a FanDuel Best Bet for Championship Sunday.