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NFC division races heating up as regular season winds down

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With just three weeks remaining in the 2024 NFL regular season, contenders from around the league have continued to separate themselves from the pretenders as a potential playoff picture begins to take shape. 

Following the action in Week 15, all seven playoff spots in the AFC appear to be locked up, barring late-season meltdowns.

Four teams, including three division winners, have already clinched a postseason berth, while the Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos, and Los Angeles Chargers all have an 88 per cent chance or greater to make the playoffs, per NFL’s Next Gen Stat projections. 

In the NFC, the Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, and Minnesota Vikings have guaranteed themselves playoff football, while the Green Bay Packers and Washington Commanders have odds of 99 and 78 per cent, respectively. 

That would leave just two spots for the two division winners in the South and West, with both likely coming down to the last week of the regular season. 

Starting with the West, the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks are tied atop the division at 8-6 with just three weeks to play. 

The Rams have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Seahawks thanks to an overtime win on the road back in Week 9, but the two will face off once more to cap off the regular season in what is shaping up to be a potential must-win game for both sides. 

To make things even messier, the Arizona Cardinals have quietly put themselves in a position to leapfrog both teams for the division crown. 

Sitting at 7-7, the Cardinals are just one game back from a three-way tie atop the NFC West.

If Arizona manages to win out, their playoff chances increase from 14 to 70 per cent. 

The Cardinals are aided by the 10th-easiest strength of schedule down the stretch, starting with a meeting against the lowly Carolina Panthers on Sunday, followed by a season-defining game against the Rams in Week 17. 

“We’re playing meaningful football in December right now, so we’ll just reset ourselves,” said Arizona head coach Jonathan Gannon, following the team’s 30-17 win over the New England Patriots last week. “We know we’ve got a two-day trip going to Carolina, and they play hard and they’re well coached. 

“We’re going to have to do what we need to do throughout the week on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday to give ourselves a chance to win. They know the challenge ahead of them and they’re ready for it.” 

The only team without a real chance to make the playoffs in the NFC West this season is the San Francisco 49ers, who’s wild-card hopes all but faded on Thursday Night Football in a sloppy 12-6 loss to the Rams. 

However, the Niners close out their regular season against the Cardinals, and could very well be in a position to deny a playoff berth to a division rival that has tasted the postseason just once since the 2015 season. 

While the Rams, Seahawks, and Cardinals can all win the NFC West, all of those teams can also miss the playoffs entirely with poor play down the stretch. 

Los Angeles has a 54 per cent chance at the postseason, but the Seahawks and Cardinals sit at 36 and 14 per cent, respectively. 

There’s no telling how this division will look after Week 18, but it’s shaping up to be a very entertaining finish in the NFC West. 

The NFC South may be a little less complicated, but the stakes remain the same. 

At this point, the division is now a two-horse race between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons

Tampa Bay currently sit atop the division at 8-6 after rattling off four straight wins over the past month. They have the third-easiest remaining schedule, and will play three teams with a combined record of 14-28 as they chase yet another division crown. 

If the Buccaneers are able to win out by taking advantage of some favourable matchups down the stretch, they will win the South for the fourth straight year. 

The Falcons, however, have already defeated the Buccaneers twice this season, and would overtake Tampa Bay for the division via tiebreak if they were to finish the regular season with the same record. 

“That’s where you want to be, and that’s exactly where we’re at,” said Falcons head coach Raheem Morris, following his team’s 15-9 win over the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football. “We’ve got a short week; we’ve got to get back in the lab. We’ve got to find ways to fix what we did wrong tonight and come out and get another win.” 

Much like Tampa Bay, Atlanta’s schedule also gets significantly easier from now until the end of the regular season. In fact, their opponents’ combined records also sit at 14-28. 

The NFC South could very well come down to which team blinks first, with the eventual loser likely to miss the playoffs altogether.