NFC matchups provide best chances for upsets in NFL wild-card round

The Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans open up the NFL wild-card weekend schedule on Saturday in a matchup expected to come down to the wire that could provide some drama to open the playoffs.

Per ESPN's Paul Hembekides, underdogs are 69-105 all-time on wild-card weekend, which is an average of 1.5 upsets per season.

Additionally, Hembekides notes that at least one underdog has won a game in the wild-card round in 40 of the last 46 seasons, dating back to 1978.

So, which of the six games this weekend have the highest chance of adding to that list?

There are two home underdogs this weekend, both of which are the No. 4 seeds in their respective conferences.

The Texans were blown out in consecutive losses to playoff opponents in Weeks 16 and 17, but closed their season on a winning note against the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars.

Meanwhile, Los Angeles closed out the season with three straight wins and own the league's best defence by points allowed. Houston went 5-3 at home this season, while the Chargers were 6-3 on the road.

The two games least likely to showcase an upset feature the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills, considered by many to be among the five best teams in the NFL this year, along with the Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions.

They each enter as heavy favourites, with Baltimore hosting a division rival in the Pittsburgh Steelers, who enter the playoffs on a four-game losing streak, while Buffalo hosts rookie quarterback Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos.

The NFC picture is expected to be more dramatic. Each of the three matchups is a rematch of a game in the regular season.

Philadelphia squeaked by the Green Bay Packers 34-29 in Brazil in the opening weekend of the season, and Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is still dealing with a concussion that forced him to miss the final two games of the season.

On top of that, the Packers boast the third-best run defence in the NFL by yards per attempt (4.0), which may prove the most important ingredient to slowing down the Eagles and running back Saquon Barkley. 

Barkley achieved the ninth 2,000-yard rushing season in NFL history this year, and the Eagles finished second in rushing and fifth in yards per attempt across the league this year.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers provided top rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels a cold welcome to the NFL in Week 1, crushing the Washington Commanders 37-20 in Tampa Bay.

Raymond James Stadium will be the site for their rematch in the playoffs, and while Daniels is the favourite to take home NFL Rookie of the Year honours, the Buccaneers own the league's fourth-best scoring offence and have playoff wins in three of the last four seasons.

Compare that to the Commanders, who are seeking their first playoff win since the 2007 campaign as a franchise, and the odds are against Daniels and company.

Still, Washington enters as the fifth-best scoring offence in the league, and the expected addition of four-time Pro Bowl defensive back Marshon Lattimore to the defence after missing six the last eight games due to injury should be a boost in slowing down Baker Mayfield and the high-flying Buccaneers passing game.

Per FanDuel, the closest odds and highest chance for an upset come in the Monday night game between the Los Angeles Rams and Minnesota Vikings.

Minnesota joins the Chargers as the only road favourites this weekend, which doesn't come as a surprise - the Vikings (14-3) earned the distinction this season of the best record for a wild-card team in NFL history.

However, the Rams were one of two teams (Detroit swept the Vikings) to defeat Minnesota in the regular season, 30-20 in Week 8. Veteran quarterback Matt Stafford led the team to a Super Bowl title just three seasons ago, so there is no lack of experience on their side of the field.

Minnesota is seeking its first playoff win since the wild-card round in 2019, while the Rams have won five postseason games in that span.

Another point of interest for the battle is where it will take place and how that could influence each side - with wildfires causing extensive damage in Los Angeles this week, there are early plans to have the game played in Arizona if the situation is deemed unsafe by Monday.