Well-rested Chiefs squad tested by Texans in first step towards three-peat on TSN

The Kansas City Chiefs, under Andy Reid and led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes, are reaching for unmatched heights in the history of the National Football League. 

Their quest for a first-ever Super Bowl three-peat begins against the Houston Texans on Saturday.

You can watch the Texans take on the Chiefs LIVE on Saturday on TSN1/4 and streaming on TSN.ca and the TSN App, with coverage starting at 2p.m. ET / 11a.m. PT.

If you told a Chiefs fan in 2014 that they were on the precipice of an all-time dynasty about to unfold, chances are that person would laugh and walk away.

Between winning Super Bowl IV back in 1969 and the 2014 season, the Chiefs franchise won a total of three playoff games - with zero playoff victories between 1994 and 2014.

Kansas City could always produce prolific offensive weapons - MVP running back Priest Holmes, Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez, perennial sparkplug Jamaal Charles - but could never find the quarterback of the future.

It all changed in 2018, when Mahomes, the 10th overall pick of the 2017 NFL Draft, was given control of the offence and immediately made his mark with an MVP season considered one of the best seasons by a QB in NFL history, let alone by a QB that entered the season with only one NFL start under his belt. Mahomes threw for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns that year.

The Chiefs' run of success since that campaign has been historic:

Mahomes has the most wins, including playoffs, of any quarterback in NFL history over his seven seasons as a starter - and there still may be more coming in these playoffs.

The comparisons are starting to form, naturally, between Mahomes and the winningest quarterback in NFL history, Tom Brady.

Mahomes entered the league with more fanfare than Brady did, as a first-round draft pick, but both have taken the league by storm early in their careers.

The Chiefs earned the top seed in the AFC behind another outstanding season by the team.

Their only loss in a meaningful game came against the Buffalo Bills in Week 11 - they finished 15-2 after a loss to the Denver Broncos in the season finale when most starting players were rested.

As the top seed, the team earned a bye in the wild-card round. That, combined with the starters resting in the season finale, has opened a potentially impactful storyline for this game.

The last time Mahomes, tight end Travis Kelce, defensive lineman Chris Jones and other stars played was in Week 17 against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day. 

Twenty-four days of rest between games will set a new highest mark in NFL history (excluding games missed due to injury). The previous high mark is owned by Hall of Fame quarterback Warren Moon, who sat 22 days before starting the Houston Oilers' game against the Chiefs in the Divisional Round in 1993 - a game the Oilers would lose 28-20.

The rest-versus-rust debate hangs around top-seeded teams each year, but the Chiefs have shown a remarkable ability to avoid playing rusty.

Head coach Reid is 32-7 in his career following a bye week, which is the best in NFL history among coaches with a minimum of 10 such games coached. Mahomes is 21-4 in games with 10+ days of rest in his career, also the highest by any QB since 1950 with a minimum of 10 such starts.

All of that success factored in, what roads can the Texans take to upset Kansas City on Saturday and give Mahomes his first loss in the Divisional Round?

The Texans have enjoyed a strong turnaround under head coach DeMeco Ryans and quarterback C.J. Stroud - after combining for a league-worst 11 wins from 2020-22, the team has won the AFC South in consecutive years under the new duo.

Stroud, selected second overall in the 2023 NFL Draft, earned Offensive Rookie of the Year honours after throwing for 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns with only five interceptions.

The 23-year-old pivot regressed in every major category this season though: He finished with 3,727 yards and 20 touchdowns against 12 interceptions in two more games played.

When the Texans and Chiefs met in Week 16, Stroud struggled, throwing two interceptions in a 27-19 Chiefs victory. 

"Hope to see y'all in the playoffs," Mahomes said to Stroud on the field after the game.

For their part, the Texans knew there were a lot of lessons to be taken from the close loss against the top team in the NFL.

“This was a great test versus a really good playoff team,” Texans coach Ryans said. “I thought our guys battled the right way. We just have to finish.”

Houston's offence finished ranked in the bottom half of the league in most categories, but their defence, anchored by reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson, was one of the strongest units in the league this year.

Houston's defence put on a show against a stable Los Angeles Chargers attack in the wild-card round, forcing four takeaways, four sacks and eight quarterback hits in the 32-12 victory.

Anderson and Danielle Hunter each ranked in the top 10 in sacks and tackles for loss in the league in the regular season, and the duo combined for four QB hits and 1.5 sacks against the Chargers.

Mahomes has taken a career-high 2.3 sacks per game this year and 6.8 QB hits per game - the hit rate ranked third-highest in the NFL.

The Texans also have weapons in the secondary, with a standout cornerback pairing of Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter.

The duo ranked top-three in the NFL in both completion percentage and passer rating allowed.

A lot will need to go right for the Texans to pull off the upset in this game, but the pieces are all there for the division winners.

Running back Joe Mixon and wide receiver Nico Collins have each shown an ability to take over games this season - each had a game of over 150 yards from scrimmage this year.

Kansas City has also tended to play close games this year, with 11 of their 15 wins coming in one-possession games, which can be a recipe for disaster in the playoffs against a defence that shows a propensity for takeaways like the Texans does.

"We're excited about the opportunity we have," Ryans said. "We understand what's in front of us. Great team, [Kansas City] has done a great job for the past few years of really dominating the league, being there at the end."