The first Saturday of the first round of the NHL playoffs is a beautiful thing, with four critical contests being held over nine straight hours (or longer with overtime). All year we’ve been waiting to see which teams and players will forge their legacy this season, and Saturday takes us one step closer. It stands to reason we want to print money as paths to the Cup start to crystalize. The playoffs are a time of hope, so as bettors why can’t we have everything? 

Vegas Golden Knights at Winnipeg Jets

Saturday April 22 – 4:00 PM ET

Fans (and pundits) who anticipated that the Golden Knights would roll past the Jets should be disabused of that idea after two games. Game 1 was an ugly effort by Vegas as it was held to a measly 1.2 expected goals at 5-on-5 and had half as many high-danger chances as Winnipeg. Puck management was poor and effort lacklustre over 200 feet. 

Game 2 was an improvement, as Vegas’s defencemen were playmakers in the offence, something that wasn’t true in Game 1. Golden Knights coach Bruce Cassidy seems to have found a spark with his most recent attempt to revamp his forward lines, as the forecheck came alive and Vegas started connecting on stretch passes. But even with the reconfiguration further spreading out the skill, Cassidy uses his fourth line like many coaches use their fourth line. It doesn’t take offensive zone faceoffs and its job is to add energy.

What’s unusual with Vegas is that its fourth-line center, Nicolas Roy, is available as a points over/under player prop. Through two games, Roy has played with Keegan Kolesar, Brett Howden, Ivan Barbashev, and Phil Kessel. Cassidy elected to finish the last game with Roy playing with Kolesar and Barbashev. This is role players complementing role players, as neither of Roy’s linemates is among the Golden Knights’ six best scoring forwards (Jack Eichel, Chandler Stephenson, Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith, William Karlsson, and Mark Stone). 

As far as bottom-six forwards go, Roy is very capable, and he had chances in Game 2. He is a net-front presence on the second unit of the power play, so he tries to tip shots and shovel in rebounds. He had a nice foray into the slot when defenceman Shea Theodore led the entry. And while at four-on-four, he had an open lane to the net produced off the forecheck where he tried to pass backdoor.

Nevertheless, usage and math make Roy extremely compelling. He has collected a point in 26 of 67 games this season, counting playoffs, and through two games he has one combined high danger scoring chance. On Evolving Hockey, Roy finished the regular season with a 0.2 offensive rating. For the rest of the series, scoring against Connor Hellebuyck is going to be a struggle, as the Jets protect the slot well and he is an elite goaltender. With the Jets controlling the matchups in their own rink and Roy taking faceoffs outside the offensive zone, I think they keep Roy pointless.

Pick: Nicolas Roy U 0.5 points -180 

Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning

Saturday April 22 – 7:00 PM ET

If you have raised a toddler, you know that emotional seesaw. Happiness can turn to tears. And with a bribe, that fragile state can transform to bliss. The NHL playoffs are similar. 

Tuesday was a nightmare for Maple Leafs Nation. Thursday was divine. The NHL playoffs are chaotic, and this series has been one of extremes. The Maple Leafs went from sloths to bloodhounds in 48 hours. 

There are two things I am close to certain of with Game 3. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy isn’t letting in seven again, and the superstar duo of Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner is going to get a never-ending dose of Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli, and Alex Killorn. 

Coach Jon Cooper is a matchup zealot in the postseason, and he will have his shutdown line glued to the Leafs’ superstar forwards after they registered multi-point games in Games 1 and 2. 

During the regular season, Hagel, Cirelli, and Killorn outscored their opponents 12-4 and had a +31-shot advantage. When they play well, their anticipation and effort in puck battles effectively stifle opponents’ offensive inroads. And they will be cranky. In Game 2, they got dominated, surrendering two goals. If the Leafs beat the Lightning, I think scoring from Matthews and Marner will need to come on the power play, or it will come from other players. 

I also think goals on the power play will be difficult to come by. The Leafs scored two power-play tallies in Game 2, along with a goal on a delayed call on the William Nylander strike. At all strength, the Leafs created traffic and moved the puck crisply. Normally, Vasilevskiy stops some of those shots. He registered a -2.01 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). Over the last three playoffs, Vasilevskiy has the second, third, and fifth best GSAx of any goaltender with a minimum of eight games. He is similarly peerless in Goals Saved Above Average over that same stretch. 

Toronto might win on Saturday. I picked them in the series, and they certainly have the talent. Furthermore, the Lightning’s defensive group is decimated, which unquestionably hurt them Thursday. 

But Cooper and Vasilevskiy are a brilliant combo at thwarting the game’s best offensive players. I find it extremely hard to believe that, with the Lightning at home and coming off a wanting Game 2 performance, either Matthews or Marner contributes two or more points again. 

Picks: Auston Matthews U 1.5 points -195, Mitch Marner U 1.5 points -165 

Colorado Avalanche at Seattle Kraken

Saturday April 22 – 10:00 PM ET

For Seattle, one answer settles two diametrically opposed questions: How do the Kraken win Game 3 and what could cause Colorado to torch Seattle in Game 3? Readers, the forecheck is the Kraken’s potential salvation and downfall.

In Game 1, the Kraken forecheck was a series of landmines Colorado couldn’t avoid. The Avalanche have one of the most mobile defensive groups in the NHL, but Seattle’s speed below the circles forced turnovers on the first pass. What became apparent after the initial puck forfeiture was how much trouble Colorado had wrestling possession back. 

But after falling behind 2-0, Colorado smoothed the edges on its breakout, which led to clean entries and layers of attack with the Avalanche defencemen jumping into the mix. To help their own defencemen, and not have too many players caught beneath the puck, the Kraken F3 started to pull back his aggression a bit, creating a lacuna between the first two Seattle forecheckers and the third forward. 

On breakouts, the Avalanche are happy to throw picks and interfere to create space for the defencemen setting up the breakout, and they utilized flip passes better in Game 2 instead of settling for forcing the puck up the boards. So, what is the right dial of aggression? Do the Kraken send three deep and risk getting beat up the ice? Or do they play it conservatively and have their F3 hang high and risk Colorado easily circumventing the first two forecheckers?

The Kraken may have too much speed and depth to let this series get away from them. But aside from the forechecking conundrum, another concern that makes me wonder if Seattle is Wile E. Coyote sprinting off a cliff is that Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Cale Makar all have one point through two games. 

The scoring explosion is coming. As of this writing, MacKinnon has the best individual expected goals at 5-on-5 of any player in the playoffs. Makar has 15 shot attempts, tied for third in the league. In Game 2, when the Avalanche machine started to hum, Seattle looked helpless. The Avalanche were using their three-across look at the point to draw Seattle out, and backdoor cuts and interchanges to open up space. The Avalanche used faceoffs plays as a fount of scoring. 

One thing the Kraken have done well in this series is set up breakout plays and have forwards fly the zone to try to exploit the Avalanche forecheck, and as a result they have found time and room up ice. Still, if Colorado manages the puck better and avoids feeding the Kraken counterattack and keeps the Kraken under its foot on the breakout, I envision Seattle trapped in its own end a lot.

Finding the right pace of play against a revitalized Colorado team is a difficult task for Seattle, and I think this predicament will fell the Kraken Saturday. But the playoffs demand that the scribe step up his game along with the teams, and I think there are multiple betting opportunities in this contest, particularly fading Seattle’s offence.

The two players on my radar for point total unders are Alex Wennberg and Eeli Tolvanen, who at first blush seem unlikely choices given that they are first and second on the team in expected goals. But I’m skeptical of their recent spurt of success. During the regular season, Wennberg had a -0.6 offensive rating on Evolving Hockey and only posted a point in 30 of 82 games. Alexandar Georgiev has had rough moments through two games, but he has also made a bunch of giant saves and played an important role in Seattle’s Game 2 victory. 

Tolvanen has accrued a point in both playoff games, but I have doubts about him continuing this point streak. In Game 2, his line with Yanni Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand faced the MacKinnon line and was outshot 11-3. Whether or not Kraken coach Dave Hakstol decides to pit him against MacKinnon or Rantanen in Game 3, the usage for Tolvanen doesn’t get any easier in terms of zone starts. In Game 2, Tolvanen’s line took one offensive draw out of ten. This kid-glove treatment is utilized for the Matty Beniers line, which is primed to pop in Game 3.

Even after Tolvanen joined Seattle in December after being waived by Nashville, he was held scoreless in his new home in more games than he scored. He has a strong shot and plays the flank on the power play, but he played less in Game 2 than he did in Game 1. I think his time could drop further as Hakstol tries to get the Beniers line going.

The Avalanche were a top ten defence this year and their checking came alive in Game 2. I like Colorado to press its advantage in Game 3 and for Wennberg and Tolvanen to be held pointless.

Picks: Avalanche -155, Alex Wennberg U 0.5 points -165, Eeli Tolvanen U 0.5 points -190