Hellebuyck has a strong argument for the Hart Trophy
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As hockey fans’ attention temporarily shifts away from the NHL regular season and towards the 4 Nations Face-Off, one thing remains consistent: goaltender Connor Hellebuyck will have an outsized impact on the outcome.
Unfortunately for Canada, and especially Winnipeg Jets fans, Hellebuyck is switching sides for the next two weeks. The seemingly unbeatable netminder will be manning the crease for the United States, giving the Americans a meaningful advantage in net regardless of their opponent.
That’s said with tremendous respect for guys like Jordan Binnington and Adin Hill in Canada, Juuse Saros in Finland, or the triumvirate of impressive Swedish goalies. Heck, even including the American backups in Jake Oettinger and Jeremy Swayman!
We have a clear No. 1 goaltender in the world right now. He’s close to securing another Vezina Trophy this season, the third of his career at just 31 years old. He also has a genuine argument for the Hart Trophy this year, with Hellebuyck being the biggest reason why the NHL’s best team has sprinted to the top of the Western Conference.
Just how unbeatable is Hellebuyck right now? Even by his standards, this could be the best performance of his career. We have seen Hellebuyck entrench himself as best-in-class over the past few seasons, and he’s taken it to another level in 2024-25:
The broader improvement of the Winnipeg defence in front of him has definitely helped — Hellebuyck is no different than any other player in the league, subject to all of the good and bad that happens on the ice when he’s out there.
As Winnipeg has improved, so has Hellebuyck. This season is the continuation of a three-year trend where Hellebuyck is erasing goals (relative to league averages) at a clip we haven’t seen in some time. He deserves extra credit for doing it in this heightened scoring environment, too:
It’s not to say Hellebuyck is the only goalie having an incredible season — Washington’s Logan Thompson, Anaheim’s Lukas Dostal, and Minnesota’s Filip Gustavsson have been electric. But Hellebuyck’s coming out on top. Again.
In a hard salary cap league where repeatability (not volatility) differentiates the best goaltenders over many seasons, Hellebuyck is a ship in calm waters. The most predictably great stopper of the puck you will find, and somehow still improving in the peak of his career.
Looking at the betting markets, the Vezina Trophy race is just about over, barring total collapse – Hellebuyck’s implied odds to win are close to 95 per cent. He’s also made the Hart Trophy a four-horse race, a tightly-contested one right now against Edmonton’s dynamic duo of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl and Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon.
Only two goaltenders have won the Hart this millennium, Jose Theodore and Carey Price, both in Montreal. I think Hellebuyck has a great shot to be the third. Because for as dominant as those three skaters are, more than half of Winnipeg’s league-leading goal differential (+68) can be explained solely from Hellebuyck.
But the NHL MVP debate can recommence in March. Right now, attackers from Canada, Finland, and Sweden must come together to figure out what the rest of the NHL hasn’t: how to beat Hellebuyck.
Data via NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick