Oilers the biggest mover among Canadian teams in latest NHL Power Ranking

Playoff races are heating up as we are less than one month from the end of the National Hockey League’s regular season. All seven Canadian teams are in the mix, which will make for an entertaining last few weeks.

The Winnipeg Jets dropped two of three games last week and fell from second on our list to sixth.

Winnipeg has the best points percentage in the Western Conference, but recent play and underlying numbers play a big part in determining our rankings. The Jets are 6-4-1 in March and, despite owning the second-best per-game goal differential in the league, sit 11th in expected goal differential.

We’re not saying the Jets aren’t a great team or a serious Stanley Cup contender, but we are saying there are more visible cracks lately than the teams ahead of them on our list. It’s a tight race between the top eight teams in our Power Rankings, so a good homestand by the Jets this week could easily see them back in the top three before long.

The Edmonton Oilers are up four spots from 11th to seventh this week. A 2-0-1 week has the Oilers tied with the Kings for the second wild-card spot in the Pacific Division.

It looks increasingly like Edmonton will not win the division, which should see them meet the Kings in the first round for a fourth straight season. Our Sportlogiq Playoff Probability model gives the Oilers an 82 per cent chance of facing the Kings in the opening round of the playoffs.

All eyes are on the health of Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, who both missed the Oilers' game against Seattle on Saturday. The good news for Edmonton fans is the Oilers don’t play again until Wednesday when they host the Stars.

The Ottawa Senators are down three spots from ninth to 12th after a 1-2-0 week. The Sens were a victim of the pesky Canadiens Tuesday, blowing a third-period lead to Montreal. Ottawa then got thumped by the Avalanche Thursday before rebounding with a win against the Devils on Saturday.

The Senators, five points up on the Rangers who are fighting to get back into a playoff spot, have a 97 per cent chance to make the playoffs according to our model. Ottawa has an opportunity to solidify its position this week with games against Buffalo, Detroit and Columbus.

Up two spots from 17th to 15th, the Toronto Maple Leafs. Toronto is 5-5-1 in March and blew a two-goal lead against the offensively challenged Nashville Predators on Saturday. That said, the Leafs are just two points behind the Florida Panthers for the top spot in the Atlantic Division.

Our model, based on thousands of simulations, gives the Maple Leafs a 100 per cent chance of making the playoffs, a 29 per cent chance of winning the division and a 43 per cent chance of facing the Lightning in the first round.

As for those pesky Canadiens, Montreal is up one spot, from 19th to 18th, this week. The Canadiens have no quit in their game. Montreal erased a three-goal deficit against the Avalanche Saturday to earn a crucial point in the playoff race.

Montreal sits in the final wild-card spot in the East and has a 50 per cent chance of making the playoffs, according to our model. While it might seem like a coin flip, the teams chasing Montreal haven’t shown much life recently as the Rangers appear to be the biggest threat, one point back of the Canadiens but with two more games played.

Speaking of the Rangers, they might have dealt the Vancouver Canucks a death blow in Vancouver’s quest to make the postseason on Saturday. Brock Boeser scored to tie the game at three with under five minutes to play, but the Canucks gave up the eventual game-winning goal less than a minute later.

Vancouver now sits five points back of the final wild-card spot in the West with our model giving it just a 9 per cent chance of making the playoffs.

Ahead of Vancouver in the standings, but ranking 23rd on our list, are the Calgary Flames. The Flames went 3-0-1 last week, showing a ton of resilience to stay in the fight in the Western Conference.

The Flames schedule is a daunting one to finish the month with games against Seattle, followed by Dallas, Edmonton and Colorado. Our model, which takes strength of schedule into account, gives the Flames a 30 per cent chance of making the playoffs.

Odds be damned when talking about this Flames team who are showing everyone to count them out at their peril.