Intrigue and excitement in the Year of Connor Bedard

In this, the Year of Connor Bedard, the 2023 NHL Draft still holds an enormous amount of intrigue, anticipation, and sheer excitement beyond the obvious certainty of who’ll be the No. 1 pick.

Because it’s about so much more than just the phenom who will go first overall to the Chicago Blackhawks in Nashville on June 28, although let’s be honest, the Bedard Buzz will be palpable.

“Really impressive group after Bedard,” said one NHL team head scout. “It’s not just the Bedard Draft; there’s a Big Five, and if you’re picking in the top five, you’re not getting a good prospect, you’re getting a very good, maybe even great, one.”

Now, in what order Adam Fantilli, Leo Carlsson, Will Smith and Matvei Michkov are taken after Bedard goes first, well, there’s the intrigue for fans of the Anaheim Ducks, Columbus Blue Jackets, San Jose Sharks and Montréal Canadiens.

So buckle up because it’s going to be a ride.

This is probably as good a time as any to explain and/or remind you of the frame of reference for TSN’s NHL Draft Final Rankings. It’s not a mock draft. At no time in TSN’s survey of 10 high-ranking NHL club scouts did we ask them to match prospects with teams or predict who’ll end up where.

We simply ask the scouts to rank the players in the order they would take them. Then we put all 10 lists together to come up with a consensus ranking that historically has been a decent barometer of where in the draft a player is most likely to be taken.

Is it foolproof? Far from it. We only talk to 10 teams; there are 32 in the league. Besides, it only takes one team to like one player a lot more than everyone else and consensus be damned.

Nevertheless…

University of Michigan freshman centre Adam Fantilli from the Greater Toronto Area is No. 2 on our final list, not because we believe Anaheim will necessarily take him there or should take him there. The Ducks could, but whether they do or don’t, it’s inconsequential to our ranking. He’s second to only Bedard simply because nine of the 10 scouts surveyed ranked him there.

Fantilli showed well at the men’s world championship for Team Canada, and whether he’s projected as an NHL centre or winger — scouts are somewhat divided on that — he has all the tools to be a first-line NHLer. Size, strength, skating, power, work ethic, shot, scoring ability — he’s got it all.

We are not saying Swedish high-end, two-way centre Leo Carlsson is necessarily destined to be a Blue Jacket, or not; we are saying he’s No. 3 on our list because seven of our 10 scouts ranked him third. Between his high hockey I.Q., a man’s frame and commitment to the game all over the ice, he invokes some stylistic comparisons to Aleksander Barkov. He, too, performed well for Sweden at the men’s world championships.

Team USA Under-18 National Team Development Program dynamic offensive centre Will Smith, who got six votes at No. 4, one at No. 3 and three more at No. 5, is fourth on our list. Could he end up in San Jose? Sure, he could, but he’s fourth on our list because that’s what the numbers say he is, regardless of what the Sharks do. One scout called Smith a veritable offensive “genius” with the puck with all the skills and smarts to be a top-line offensive centre in the NHL.

And then there’s Matvei Michkov. No one is quite sure what to make of the Russian goal-scoring whiz wingman who two years ago was a projected 2023 1B to Bedard’s 1A while the two of them were shooting out the lights at the 2021 Under-18 World Championship in Texas.

Even though Michkov’s consensus ranking is No. 5 — five scouts pegged him there, but he also received consideration at Nos, 2, 3, and 4 — his forecast is every bit as uncertain and unknown as Bedard’s is crystal clear. Really, whenever and whomever takes Michkov, it’s going to be a dominant storyline in this draft. Maybe THE storyline, next to Bedard.

There’s no disputing Michkov’s talent and natural goal-scoring ability. But there are so many other factors at work, not the least of which include:

- He’s under contract to a KHL team (SKA St. Petersburg) for three more seasons and unless accommodations are reached between his NHL club and his KHL team, Michkov is not expected to play in the NHL any earlier than the fall of 2026. Might he sign an extension in Russia? Who knows?

- Because Michkov is a Russian, and because Russia waged war on Ukraine that has resulted in both real-world and hockey-world sanctions and consequences against Russia, NHL GMs, executives and team head scouts have not been able to see him play live this season – not at the World Junior Hockey Championship in Halifax last Christmas and not in the KHL either. Because NHL club team personnel are not travelling freely to Russia, in the modern era of the NHL draft, certainly post-Soviet Union/Iron Curtain, no elite NHL prospect has had fewer live viewings from NHL personnel than Michkov.

- More rumours/60 than any other prospect and so many unanswered queries and unsubstantiated theories on everything from whether he’s a good teammate to the mysterious circumstances surrounding the death of his father this season, a traumatic event that the teenager, as one would expect, is still processing.

In the weeks leading up to the NHL draft, there was talk Michkov was spurning interview requests from NHL clubs, but those specific fears were looking to be either unfounded or at least allayed. Michkov’s agent, Max Moliver, has this week been scheduling interview times with a multitude of NHL clubs for early next week in Nashville. Michkov and his representatives are trying to be as accommodating as possible, given the short time frame before the draft.

Michkov is expected to arrive in the U.S. as early as tomorrow or Saturday. He’s expected to be in Nashville early next week. The first round of the draft, of course, is Wednesday.

“Those interviews are going to be so important,” one scout said. “We couldn’t interview him [at the NHL Combine in Buffalo] because he wasn’t there. We couldn’t interview him in Russia because we weren’t there. Does he want to play in the NHL? How soon might he be able to come? Is there any chance he could sign an extension in Russia? Does he want to play for a particular team? How he answers the questions, how he carries himself in those interviews, will determine how high he’ll be taken or how far he’ll fall, and which team is prepared to take him.”

One scout said Michkov is likely the only prospect in this draft who would require an NHL owner to sign off on before a team would take him in the top five or even top 10.

Pre-draft scuttlebutt, for whatever that is worth, suggests Michkov won’t get by the Washington Capitals, who pick at No. 8. The Caps, of course, are the team of Alexander Ovechkin — Michkov is touted as the best Russian prospect since Ovechkin — and Evgeny Kuznetsov. Washington also didn’t hesitate to take Russian forward Ivan Miroshnichenko 20th overall last year, even though there were concerns about his illness, injury, and the so-called Russian Factor.

Washington will no doubt be one of the teams interviewing Michkov and those talks will be critical to any draft-day decisions, but one has to allow for the possibility some other team could still claim Michkov before Washington.

Still, the sense is Michkov is the most likely member of the top five who could conceivably fall out of the group for any of number of reasons, but on talent and potential, he’s a top-five talent all day. If he does fall out, there are no fewer than three other prospects who could tabbed to fill the void.

They include:

- Ryan Leonard, the Team USA U-18 right winger who is No. 6 on the TSN final ranking list. Leonard flanked Smith on the dominant U.S. line. The 50-goal scorer possesses a big-league shot and even though he’s just under 6 feet tall, his 190-pound frame allows him to play a hard-edged, hard-driving power and goal-scoring game. He was ranked as high as No. 6 in our scouting survey and no lower than No. 9.

- Dalibor Dvorsky, the physically mature 6-foot-1, 200-pound Slovak centre who is No. 7 on TSN’s final list. Dvorsky is viewed as perhaps the most complete player in the Top 10 and while some scouts debate how high, or limited, his offensive ceiling may be, five of 10 scouts had him solidly at No. 6. But a couple had him just outside the Top 10, at No. 11.

- David Reinbacher, the rangy Austrian 6-2, 194-pound blueliner who is not regarded as an offensive defenceman and is not seen as an intimidating  shutdown defender but plays an upper-echelon two-way game is No. 8 on TSN’s final list. He is the consensus top defenceman in this year’s draft. His range was as high as No. 7 and as low as No. 15.

It would only take Michkov to fall out of the Big Five for any one of Leonard, Dvorsky or Reinbacher to fill the void.

“Big Five?” another scout chimed. “I think it could very well be [a Super Six] with Dvorsky in that group [regardless of when/where Michkov goes]. A big centre with elite hockey sense, elite competitiveness and I believe the offence is there when he plays in his peer group. The only knock is he’s not an explosive skater.”

That scout isn’t the only one who believes Dvorsky warrants inclusion in the Super Six.

“Don’t sleep on Dvorsky,” another said.

You’re beginning to see why scouts are so enthused about this year’s draft class. Whether it’s a Big Five or a Super Six, there’s lots to like about the sixth, seventh, eighth and for that matter ninth and 10 prospects on our list.

Winnipeg Ice left winger Zach Benson is only 5-foot-10 and 170 pounds and doesn’t possess blinding speed, but is so smart, creative and competitive that he still checks in at No. 9 on our list. Eight of 10 scouts had him in their Top 10 but the other two had him between 15 and 20.

He’s followed at No. 10 by Team USA U-17 left winger Gabe Perreault, the son of former NHLer Yanic Perreault who is the third member of that dominant American trio with Smith and Leonard. The sub 6-foot winger (5-foot-11, 163 pounds) has elite hockey sense and high-end skill/creativity but will need to continue working on his strength and skating. One scout had Perreault knocking on the Top 5 door at No. 6 but four did have him between 11 and 20.

There’s certainly no guarantee the trio of talented American linemates Smith, Leonard, and Perreault will all go in the top 10 — Perreault’s range in our survey was as high as No. 6 and as low as 17 — but regardless, it’s still quite a story.

It’s far too soon to say what impact each of the three will make in the NHL, but it won’t be a surprise if the trio, on Draft Day anyway, eclipses the renowned Superman Line of the USNTDP, circa 2015. Auston Matthews, of course, went No. 1 overall to Toronto in the 2016 draft; Matthew Tkachuk went No. 6 overall to Calgary in 2016; and Jack Roslovic went No. 25 to Winnipeg in 2015.

It’s not a real apples-to-apples comparison because Matthews and Tkachuk were underagers on the 2015 U-18 team. Matthews played in Switzerland and Tkachuk with London of the OHL in their draft years. Nevertheless, the statistical domination by Smith’s line this season has sparked inevitable comparisons to that Superman Line.

All five of the prospects ranked from Nos. 11 to 15 on our list — University of Connecticut right winger Matthew Wood at 11; Owen Sound Attack left winger Colby Barlow at 12; Team USA U-18 centre Oliver Moore (the fastest skater in the entire draft class) at 13; Swedish defenceman Axel Sandin Pellikka at 14; and Moose Jaw Warrior centre Brayden Yager at 15— did get one vote each in the Top 10.

But that was also true of three of the five prospects at Nos. 16 to 20 on the TSN list, which is to suggest there are a lot of interchangeable parts between 11 and 20.

Brandon Wheat King centre Nate Danielson is No. 16; Vancouver Giant left winger Samuel Honzek is No. 17; Swedish centre Otto Stenberg is No. 18; Russian defenceman Dmitri Simashev is No. 19; and Swedish defenceman Tom Willander is No. 20.

Teams looking for size up front may choose to elevate the 6-foot-1 1/2  Danielson and/or the 6-foot-3 1/2 Honzek. Likewise, in a draft class with just one blueliner in the Top 10 (Reinbacher) and only two in the Top 15 (Sandin Pellikka), a club looking for defensive presence could put a premium on the 6-foot-4 Simashev or the strong two-way game of Willander.

Each of Honzek, Simashev, and Willander got Top 10 consideration from one scout. Stenberg is more of a wild card in this grouping, with a range of No. 13 on the high end and 45 on the low end. Danielson was as high as No. 11 but no lower than No. 20.

There is likely to be a more scattershot approach to the draft once it gets into the 21-32 range. The 21-26 grouping has some really fascinating storylines.

Start with big centre Cal Ritchie of the Oshawa Generals, who started the season at No. 6 on our pre-season ranking and slipped to No. 13 at mid-season before settling in at No. 21 on the final list. Ritchie has all the tools — size, skill, vision — to be an NHL centre but has been trending in the wrong direction.

Still, scouts have him all over the first-round map; as high as No. 11 and as low as No. 30. The scouts who have him on the higher side of No. 21 believe Ritchie playing with a torn labrum for much of the season — he had post-season shoulder surgery and was at the NHL Combine with his arm in a sling — explains why he didn’t meet high expectations. Others, however, aren’t as enamoured and have discounted him as a later first-round consideration.

Given all the talk about Michkov and all things Russian, it’s perhaps surprising to see three Russian prospects ranked between Nos. 19 and 23:

- The big shutdown defender Simashev (No. 19) had seven of ours scouts put him solidly in the first round and five of them viewed him as a Top 20 prospect.

- Nine of our scouts had 6-foot-3 left winger Daniil But in the first round, and eight of them had him as high as No. 14 and no lower than 24. He settled in at No. 22.

- No. 23 ranked Mikhail Gulyayev, a 5-foot-10 defenceman, had seven scouts place him between 17 and 29, which is a remarkably narrow bandwidth for a sub-6 foot blueliner from Russia in a year where there’s been so much concern from both a geopolitical and hockey point of view.

Which is to say for bottom-half-of-the-first round prospects, those three Russians appear to have a surprisingly stable consensus. That could mean they’re very highly thought of, and teams maybe aren’t as concerned about the so-called Russian Factor with these three. Or, come draft day, interested teams may find another non-Russian prospect they like better and any one, two or three of them could slip closer to, or into, the second round.

Czech left winger Eduard Sale, like Ritchie, has seen his stock decline over the year. He was No. 13 in the pre-season ranking, 12 at mid-season and now he’s at No. 24. Still, the highly skilled Sale has a range from 12 to 31, so there’s room for movement up or down.

Sudbury Wolves’ big and skilled left winger Quentin Musty, at No. 25, is a consensus solid first rounder with eight scouts pegging him between Nos. 21 and 26. Meanwhile, No. 26-ranked Swedish defenceman Theo Lindstein is a veritable wild card, with a range of 14 to 65 in our survey.

The balance of TSN’s Top 32 is rounded out as follows:

- Kelowna Rocket smallish (5-foot-9 1/2) but highly skilled left winger Andrew Cristall is at No. 27. He has potential for upward mobility — a couple of scouts had him in their top 20 and he was No. 18 on TSN’s mid-season list — but he could also slide into the second round. Four scouts ranked him there. He’s viewed high risk/high reward for any team ready to take a home-run swing.

- London Knight defenceman Oliver Bonk, son of former NHL forward Radek Bonk, is a solid consensus late first-rounder at No. 28. Only two scouts who had him outside of the first round but not very far out of the first.

- Drummondville right winger Ethan Gauthier, son of former NHL defenceman Denis Gauthier, is No. 29, with a range between 18 and 38.

- University of Michigan diminutive (5-foot-8 1/2, 165 pound) centre Gavin Brindley is one of the most intriguing prospects in our Top 32. For starters, he’s the smallest prospect ranked in the first round. The scouts who project him as having the special qualities necessary for a player of that size to make it in the NHL — six of 10 had him in their first round — say he is a talented warrior. But there are those who have concerns, including one scout who placed him late in the second round. Brindley is No. 29 on our final ranking.

- Penticton left winger Bradley Nadeau is No. 31, with a range between 19 and 45; and Prince George Cougar centre Riley Heidt claimed the final spot, with a range between 20 on the high end and 60 on the low side.

Suffice to say there is a high degree of interchangeability between the bottom third of the first-round prospects on the TSN list and those prospects ranked from Nos. 33 right to 50-plus. A good many of the TSN second-round prospects have varying degrees of support as late first-round picks.

There are no goalies ranked in the first round, although the consensus No. 1 — Czech Michael Hrabal, the 6-foot-6 stopper who played for Omaha in the USHL — did get Top 32 consideration from a couple of scouts. Six goalies in addition to Hrabal were ranked in TSN’s Top 96.