Let’s talk about penalties in the NHL playoffs

Let’s talk about penalties.

To say officiating has been under fire during the Stanley Cup Playoffs would be an understatement.

Whether it’s the accuracy or consistency in the calls, the theory of game management, or the Department of Player Safety and their role in allocating supplemental discipline, all elements of National Hockey League officiating have been scrutinized. That won’t change as we enter the conference finals.

With so much focus and attention on the whistle, I wanted to look at how officials are calling games this postseason – the frequency of which they are calling penalties, and the types of penalties officials are more inclined to call during these playoffs.

Let’s first look at the rate of penalty calls. Penalties have been on a marginal relative decline since exiting the 2004-05 lockout, though the past two seasons have seen a rebound in calls.

What I think is noticeable is that for the eighth year in a row, the playoffs are seeing a higher rate of penalties called than the regular season – contrary to some of the narratives you hear or read during playoff hockey:

One of the things that has been obvious watching games this postseason: officials may be reticent to call certain penalties, but when it comes to the dangerous infractions like cross-checking and roughing, there is a definitive red line.

Postseason hockey does lend itself to more physicality across the board as teams try to impose themselves on one another – it’s well established in NHL culture that achieving physical dominance over the opponent is a material competitive advantage, and it’s probably why you see some of the more nefarious penalties on the rise.

Look at how frequently officials are calling cross-checking, slashing, and roughing penalties relative to how frequently they did in the regular season, and then compare that to the frequency in which they are calling high-sticking or tripping minors:

Postseason data is obviously going to be a bit constrained by the sample of games, but this is a recurrent theme during the playoffs – the more aggressive the penalty, the more likely you are going to see it called during a game.

Lastly, a thought about what this means for special teams and the remainder of the playoffs. We know that scoring has been up league-wide for years now, and that’s particularly true on power plays. The Edmonton Oilers are the face of this story after posting the most indomitable power play many of us have ever seen this season. But they aren’t alone.

The Dallas Stars possess the best power play amongst the remaining playoff teams, scoring 9.4 goals per 60 minutes played – good for fifth during the regular season. Compared to the best power play from the 2011-12 regular season, this Stars team was 24 per cent more effective. It's a great illustration of the scoring boom the league has observed, and it is also the core strength of a team four games away from a Stanley Cup Final berth. Vegas’ penalty kill will be under immense pressure for the second series in a row.

It’s a very different scenario in the East. The Carolina Hurricanes possess a terrifying penalty kill – I remind you this unit concedes goals at a rate comparable to most teams at even strength.

It’s structurally beautiful, and on the counterattack they can do serious damage – New Jersey conceded three short-handed goals in a single game during the second round, for context. And though their opponent in Florida has plenty of offensive firepower, it’s hard to see a path for the Panthers to the Stanley Cup without being able to crack Carolina’s penalty kill.

And on that note, I’ll conclude this Stanley Cup Playoffs officiating primer. Enjoy the conference finals!

Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference