NHL Power Ranking: Who has the best chance to make the most noise?

Eleven days. That’s all that's left of the regular season. The 16 teams that will play for the Stanley Cup are all but locks at this point. The only question remaining is where they will be seeded.

Five Canadian teams are in position to play on once the regular season ends, with Calgary and Vancouver likely to miss. Our Sportlogiq Playoff Probability Model gives the Flames a nine per cent chance of making it, while the Canucks sit at less than one percentage point.

So, which of the five Canadian teams in a playoff spot has the best chance of making some noise? Let’s dive in.

The Winnipeg Jets remain fifth in our Power Rankings following a 1-2-0 week. The Jets' power play, which was operating at an NHL-best 33.3 per cent before the 4 Nations tournament, has cooled. Winnipeg ranks 25th with the man advantage since the break, converting on 18.2 per cent of its chances.

The Jets are still the dominant defensive team they have been all season, leading the NHL in goals-against average and slot shots against. The Jets have an 80 per cent chance of finishing first in the Central Division and their most likely first-round opponent (at 46 per cent) is the Minnesota Wild.

Up four spots, from 12th to eighth, are the Toronto Maple Leafs. It looks like our model is finally coming around on this Leafs team. All season, our model has ranked them lower than where they sit in the standings, largely due to underlying numbers that are not as positive as their overall record.

But the Leafs have won four straight games and are closing in on a division title. Our model gives the Leafs an 80 per  cent chance of finishing first in the Atlantic and a 62 per cent chance of facing the Ottawa Senators in the first round. The next four games will be a good test for the Leafs who visit Florida and Tampa Bay before facing the Canadiens and Hurricanes on back-to-back days this weekend.

The Edmonton Oilers are down two spots, from 10th to 12th. Edmonton managed a 2-1-0 record this week despite Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Stuart Skinner missing time.

The Oilers can still catch the Kings for second place in the Pacific, however, our model gives them a 90 per cent chance of finishing third in their division. There is a 93 per cent chance Edmonton will face Los Angeles in the first round for a fourth straight season. Home-ice advantage is as important as ever for the Oilers as the Kings have a 29-4-4 record at home and have won both games against Edmonton on home ice this season.

The surging Ottawa Senators are up one spot this week, from 14th to 13th. Ottawa has won three straight games and is all but formally locked into a playoff spot. Our model, which runs thousands of game simulations, has the Senators making the playoffs 100 per cent of the time. There’s a 71 per cent chance the Sens finish in the top wild-card spot and will likely face the Leafs in the first round.

Ottawa is winning games right now, but it will look to clean things up defensively. While Ottawa has outscored the opposition 9-1 during its three-game winning streak, it has been outshot from the slot 59-31.

The Vancouver Canucks are down a pair of spots, from 18th to 20th. The Canucks are still mathematically alive, but our model gives them a 0.2 per cent chance of making the playoffs. Vancouver is eight points back of the Wild for the final playoff spot with one game in hand.

It has been a disappointing season for the Canucks, who rode some favourable percentages to a division title last season. The biggest positive is that Quinn Hughes has had another incredible season and will likely be a finalist for the Norris Trophy.

Up four spots, from 27th to 23rd, are the Montreal Canadiens, winners of five straight games. The Habs now have an 87 per cent chance of making the playoffs and are playing some of their best hockey of the season.

The top line of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky have the best goal differential of any line in the NHL since the 4 Nations break. Lane Hutson should be a lock for the Calder Trophy at this point. Forget rookies, Hutson only trails Cale Makar, Zach Werenski and Quinn Hughes in points by a defenceman and trails only Makar in assists. With three more assists, Hutson will set the all-time rookie record for most by a rookie defenceman with 61.

Lastly, the Calgary Flames are down six spots, from 19th to 25th, on our list. The Flames are doing their best to hang in the playoff race in the West but the odds are stacked against them. Calgary trails Minnesota by six points but does have two games in hand. Our model gives the Flames a nine per cent chance of making it in the West.

Speaking of the Calder Trophy, look for Dustin Wolf to be named as a finalist. He has been the Flames’ MVP this season.