Ovechkin could soon go from chaser to chased
Published
Few storylines this season will rival Alexander Ovechkin’s chase for the NHL’s all-time goal scoring record, famously held by the venerable Wayne Gretzky (894).
Ovechkin’s consistency as an elite finisher over the past two decades has set him up to dethrone hockey’s goal king as soon as this season — even amidst a relative scoring slowdown as he enters his age-39 season, Ovechkin is just 42 goals away from breaking the record, the exact total he amassed during the 2022-23 season.
Assuming Ovechkin can stay healthy (and this has been as reliable a bet as any over his playing career), it seems just a question of whether it will take one more season, or a season and change to become the NHL’s all-time best. And though this is a different-looking Capitals lineup in the post-Nicklas Backstrom era, the organization has tried to supplement Ovechkin and the Washington top six with enough talent to stay competitive, including the recent additions of Andrew Mangiapane and Pierre-Luc Dubois.
What I think is just as fascinating as Ovechkin’s twilight season is how quickly the narrative may shift from “Chasing Gretzky” to “Chasing Ovechkin.” Typically, records like Gretzky’s can stand for many decades; after all, it’s not every day you bump into a generational talent.
But I don’t think it’s premature to start asking what a potential Auston Matthews chase of Ovechkin may look like down the road. Toronto’s American sniper may be just 27 years old and a ways off from the top spot of the leaderboard, but his early-career performance has been extraordinary. The ultimate chase would require tremendous fortune on the injury front and a lengthy playing career, but so far, so very good.
And yes, Matthews’ scoring outburst since entering the pro level has only one parallel – that being Ovechkin himself. Compared to the best modern-era scorers of the past two decades (including Connor McDavid, Steven Stamkos, and David Pastrnak), Ovechkin and Matthews have paced well ahead:
It is a stunning trajectory and the single fact he is in a dead heat with Ovechkin after eight seasons, whose early career was a nonstop goal siren, speaks for itself.
That said, it is rather remarkable how little the Maple Leafs as an organization has been able to do despite having the world’s best scorer at the top of their lineup, and that’s not even just a nod to their playoff futility.
This is a team that, outside of the COVID-19 year and forced realignment, has yet to win its division. Much of that has to do with the strength of rival clubs in Boston and Tampa Bay, but it also speaks to how challenged this team has been at building out the rest of the lineup in the context of Stanley Cup contenders.
That creates an added layer of pressure on Matthews to continue delivering, and quite frankly it should — he’s one of the highest-paid players in the league, he was given the captaincy by way of John Tavares in the off-season, and he hasn’t been the same scorer in the postseason. And perhaps that’s an understatement: his individual scoring drops by 37 per cent in the playoffs.
But remember, many of these same criticisms were levied against Ovechkin, until they weren’t. Winning is the ultimate cure-all. And for a player like Matthews, fresh off a staggering 69-goal season, I think it would be foolish to bet against him.
Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference