Bruins slide, Sens rise as postseason picture shifts in Atlantic

The Boston Bruins are in a free fall, the Ottawa Senators are playing their best hockey in years, and the Battle of Ontario is definitively on the table as a possible first-round playoff draw.

Yes, there is a considerable amount of movement that could still happen over the final third of the regular season — especially with the NHL’s trade deadline mere weeks away — but perhaps the biggest story from the winter months of this season has been a decisively changing playoff setup in the Atlantic Division, and it starts with Boston’s fall from grace.

It’d be premature to eliminate the Bruins from the postseason picture, but there is no disputing this season is very different from the two-decade run of success this organization has built its reputation on.

Though the Bruins only have one Stanley Cup (2010-11) over this period, they have been one of the most dominant teams in the league year over year. It’s what makes this season’s collapse — a year where they are pacing for a whopping -39 goal differential — such a notable occurrence:

It’s the first time we have really seen a beatable Bruins lineup, which should be music to the ears of a Toronto Maple Leafs team that’s notoriously struggled with their division rival in the playoffs.

There are several reasons for Boston’s decline, chief among them being the aging of the team’s core. Hall of Famers Zdeno Chara and Patrice Bergeron are long gone, and the still-feisty 36-year-old Brad Marchand — in the final year of his current deal — is knocking on retirement’s door.

David Pastrnak remains the dynamic and wondrous player he’s always been, but with much less help. With a real changing of the guard at the forward position in recent years, Joe Sacco (and Jim Montgomery before him) have kept Marchand and Pastrnak on different lines. And while it’s true Boston’s depth forwards are giving them next to nothing, the real story is the top of the lineup is incapable of creating any advantage play – in fact, most of Boston’s regular skaters are being outscored, and in the cases of some (like Marchand, Charlie Coyle, and Elias Lindholm), it’s by a significant margin:

Couple mediocrity at even strength with a 29th-ranked power play and 26th-ranked penalty kill, and it’s a recipe for disaster.

Boston’s loss, so far, has been Ottawa’s gain. It’s taken an awful long time for the Senators to show signs they are exiting a lengthy (and organizationally painful) rebuild, but I think we are there.

Travis Green’s team has been competitive all year and has rattled off a 7-2-1 record in the past 10 games, launching the team inside of the top three of the Atlantic Division. Notably, their +8 goal differential is at par with that of the Maple Leafs and Colorado Avalanche, two teams we feel very confident are playoff-calibre.

What’s driving the improvement? Cutting down on the goals against has been a huge tailwind for the Senators, aided by stronger structural play and better goaltending. Ottawa is currently 12th in goals conceded at even strength (2.3 per 60 minutes faced), and no longer must frenetically outscore teams to win games.

Ottawa still has pockets of weakness across the lineup, but the cream of the crop in is getting it done:

It’s the defensive improvement that’s moving the needle, but this is still a team with seven double-digit goal scorers already (headlined by Brady Tkachuk and his 20), a dynamic duo between Tim Stützle and Tkachuk on Ottawa’s top line, and a top pairing in Thomas Chabot and Nick Jensen that has been otherworldly. Mix that with a top 10 power-play unit, and you have the makings of a playoff team.

Again, a lot can still change within the race, and as it pertains to the playoff seeding itself. Toronto could potentially chase down the Florida Panthers and win the division outright, Ottawa could stutter and slip back into a wild-card slot, and the 58-point Tampa Bay will have something to say about all of it. That’s the gift and curse of an 82-game season.

But for the first time in a while, it does appear we are primed for a shakeup in the Atlantic. Ottawa is the beneficiary of Boston’s collapse right now, and considering the looming roster turnover on an aging Bruins team, this might be the type of change that sustains itself beyond this season.

Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey