Declining performance leaves Dumba feeling contract squeeze

Exiting the 2017-18 season, 23-year-old Matt Dumba was establishing himself as a bona fide first-pairing defenceman.

The former seventh-overall pick’s speed and physicality seemed to be transitioning well against National Hockey League competition, and playing alongside quality defenders in Jonas Brodin and Ryan Suter gave him the opportunity to grow into his game.

Except, he didn’t.

It is hard to pinpoint a singular reason why, but Dumba never developed into the player the Minnesota Wild thought they had drafted. The decline has been so glaring that we are two weeks into unrestricted free agency and Dumba remains unsigned – his previous five-year, $30-million contract expiring unceremoniously just a few months prior.

It’s safe to say sentiment about Dumba’s game has soured in recent years, and team effects simply aren’t at play – the Wild have been the NHL’s eighth best regular-season team over the stretch of seasons where Dumba’s performance saw precipitous declines, in large part because they have been a dynamite defensive team.

Dumba’s declining production is something teams are trying to weigh right now. One thing we anticipate from high-impact forwards and defencemen is that, over long periods of time, they will drive meaningful goal differentials on a relative basis. Or said simply: their teams are materially better with them on the ice.

That hasn’t been the case for Dumba in years:

It’s difficult to understand why Dumba’s game doesn’t look nearly as crisp as it once did. He’s playing with the team’s best skaters – his most common teammates over the past three seasons include the aforementioned Brodin, Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Mats Zuccarello. He also carries one of the highest usage rates in the league, routinely averaging 22 minutes a night. Dumba has been deployed like a first-pairing defenceman, but the results just aren’t there.

If you focus on individual production (we will use Goals Above Replacement as our measurement proxy here), you’ll see a continuation of the decay that started after the 2017-18 regular season:

A sustained 93rd-percentile performer heading into his age-23 season is the dream scenario for every front office. It’s the type of player you want to bet on and secure on a max-term deal if at all possible. Fast forward to what front offices are considering now, and we are talking about a high-usage skater who was out-produced by nearly 80 per cent of his defensive peers a season ago.

One of the things front offices are likely chewing on is how much injuries have impeded Dumba’s game, and whether that impediment has become entrenched and permanent.

I noted in the Goals Above Replacement graph Dumba’s games played, and that’s a big piece of this story. Dumba’s durability has increasingly been challenged, highlighted by that ugly torn pectoral muscle in the 2018-19 season. And if the mounting of injuries correlating with a performance decline doesn’t scare you enough, consider this isn’t your typical 28-year-old blueliner. We are talking about a physical defender with just shy of 650 games played, and one who is looking for a contract with term.

Dumba will land on his feet somewhere, likely on a sharply discounted deal to what he had in mind a few seasons ago. Timing is everything in life, and a combination of recent poor seasons and the league’s stagnant cap growth is going to squeeze Dumba this summer.

The good news is he can still write his own story, and with the right organization, could be an attractive rebound candidate.

The only question left: Who is willing to bet on Dumba, and at what price?