Laine trade worth short-term gamble

UPDATE: Patrik Laine was traded to the Montreal Canadiens six hours after this column was first published. 

Buy low, or buyer beware?

It’s a question front offices around the National Hockey League are kicking around right now in the context of Columbus Blue Jackets forward Patrik Laine. He has been increasingly vocal about his preference to be traded away from Columbus, and general manager Don Waddell has several teams engaged in a potential deal.

There are, to be sure, inherent complexities in any Laine deal. Chief among them is Laine and his contract – a four-year, $34.8 million deal that expires in 2025-26 is reasonable for an established top-six forward, but it’s also August and most teams have spent through their off-season cap space.

And then there’s the question of just how effective Laine is as a player these days. He’s had productive stretches in Columbus (2020-24), but it’s fair to say his trajectory as a player has fizzled relative to what we witnessed earlier in his career in Winnipeg. Some of that has to do with limited availability – Laine’s played just 175 games over the last four seasons borne from a combination of injuries and more recently, a stint in the NHL/NHLPA’s Player Assistance Program.

When a player is regularly missing time, it’s not hard to find reasons to be bearish. It is why reliability is one of the most coveted traits found in a player. But Laine’s also a 26-year-old on a contract with just two years remaining, and possesses the type of shooting ability you compare to the likes of a Steven Stamkos or Ilya Kovalchuk. These players simply don’t grow on trees, and it's why teams will always keep an eye on the player.

And here’s the first thing to consider: Laine as a goal-scorer hasn’t changed all that much. His career high in productivity is still that blistering 44-goal campaign in his sophomore season, but on a rate-basis, Laine’s remained an above average goal-scorer in Columbus – true at both even strength, and on the power play:

Laine’s rate scoring has remained relatively impressive, but it’s fair to point out he’s something of a streaky scorer. Every forward in the league goes through strong scoring stretches and slumps, but Laine’s seem more pronounced in nature – there are multiple periods where he has looked like one of the best shooters in the league, and others where he has under-performed league average forwards for considerable stretches. Ultimately we care about the totality of production (to say nothing of his ability to routinely beat expected goal rates to the upside), but you can imagine a coaching staff getting frustrated during the downturns.

Laine may still have lethal shooting in his arsenal, but that’s just one piece — albeit a significant piece! — of the proverbial pie. And anyone who has followed Laine’s career over the years knows he’s not the most defensively robust forward. That’s less of an issue when you are capable of out-scoring those mistakes, but when goal differentials start to go negative, the pure offensive toolbox doesn’t seem so alluring.

The defensive questions about Laine have followed him since he started his career in Winnipeg, and though I think he’s become more of a responsible off-puck player with time, we aren’t talking about Marian Hossa here. And at over seven-thousand minutes he’s played at even strength, the wondrous offence hasn’t been enough, as he has been outscored over the course of his career:

While these numbers can feel a bit discouraging, I think there’s optimism to peel back from this. There have been lengthy stretches in Laine’s career where he and his linemates have throttled their opponents, not just leveraging Laine’s shooting and offensive zone playmaking ability, but by offsetting some of the defensive weakness through quality goaltending (see: Connor Hellebuyck) or the right mix of defensive forwards on his line. Which is another way of saying fit matters, perhaps considerably, for a player with Laine’s skills and limitations alike.

In the last three seasons with Columbus, Laine’s most common linemate has been Boone Jenner, who has performed like a replacement level forward over that time span. And the most common defender behind him? Andrew Peeke. Even if you are skeptical about Laine’s future, there is little debating how poor a job the Blue Jackets have done surrounding Laine with appropriate talent. 

To that end, I think the answer to the initial question is much closer to buy low than buyer beware — particularly if teams are confident in Laine’s health and availability going forward. The short term left on his contract, combined with a very high floor as a top-tier goal scorer, is appetizing in and of itself.

Find the right organization, ideally one with more defensive structure than that of Columbus, and Laine’s career could take off for the second time.

Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference