Sizing up NHL’s wild-card races after the trade deadline

With the National Hockey League’s trade deadline officially behind us, focus now shifts to the playoff race and the bid for those final wild-card slots.

Both conferences have deep races for their two respective spots, owing largely to the NHL’s scoring system that awards points for overtime and shootout losses.

A large swath of teams remain in contention, and the calibre of these teams ranges greatly.

We can only reasonably cross off three East teams at this point: the Philadelphia Flyers, Pittsburgh Penguins, and Buffalo Sabres. That’s it, with only 20 per cent of the regular season remaining.

There’s a similar story in the West. I wrote early in the season the Western Conference playoff race was really just about the final wild-card spot, as the top-heaviness of the conference was sure to entrench the elite teams early. That’s still the case today — we can only cross off five teams right now, from the plucky Anaheim Ducks to the dead-last San Jose Sharks. Everyone else is alive.

The beauty of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is upsets do happen from time to time; the last thing a divisional winner wants to see in a first-round draw is a wild-card team that’s getting hot at the right time, or a team that’s shown well against better competition.

To that end, I wanted to see how our remaining wild-card competitors have performed against playoff-calibre clubs. The below tables show the performance of the wild-card hopefuls against the entrenched 14 playoff teams, as well as a check on whether the team has seen improving or deteriorating results over the course of the regular season.

Let’s start with the muddied mess in the Eastern Conference:

Few teams were busier than the Ottawa Senators at the trade deadline – I start here because they were one of the only trade deadline buyers amongst the wild-card hopefuls. And though I may be skeptical about what newly acquired Dylan Cozens might mean for this organization long term, there is little doubt this team has enough talent to qualify for the postseason.

Tim Stutzle has veered into superstar territory, Thomas Chabot’s pairing has blown teams off the ice all year long, and goaltending is far less of a concern than in years past. When the Senators are playing an up-tempo, frenetically attacking game, they’re a dangerous foe for anyone in the league.

If I were a betting man ready to allocate that second slot, I do overweight the remaining favourites in the New York Rangers and Columbus Blue Jackets. The simple reality is both of these teams are 20 goals or more clear of any other East team and look on par with the likes of Ottawa.

While Columbus’ story has been nothing short of amazing, I have an easier time believing in an Igor Shesterkin-led team than one who has been on a shooting percentage heater for the ages. Columbus is shooting a blistering 11 per cent at even strength on the year, just three points in trail of their success rate on a very mediocre power play.

Dynamic shooting teams tend to exemplify it across all situations, whereas teams benefiting from a bit more of random chance puck luck or rush play see splits like this.

There is little if no daylight separating these teams, but if I’m forecasting future outcomes, I’d rather bet on the elite goalie than the shooting percentages that are driving this late season surge. But I wouldn’t excuse anyone for taking the opposite side here. After all, the Blueshirts have only stayed in the race because they pulverize the lesser teams in the conference.

Turning over to the Western Conference:

When I say the conference is top heavy, consider that zero wild-card teams (including those holding a position now) have a positive goal differential on the season.

Moreover, only one team has shown an ability to win on the road, and that’s the Minnesota Wild — they’ve been so good away from home (22-10-3) you wonder what’s in the air at Xcel Energy Center.

They do have some buffer over the chasing pack, and I’m hopeful that injury returns from Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson-Ek solidify the Wild as a playoff team.

As for differentiating the rest of the pack, good luck.

One team I am keyed in on as a possible upside surprise down the stretch is the Utah Hockey Club.

Unlike most fringe teams at the deadline, Utah opted not to sell off players, instead extending several players on multi-year deals. Most importantly, that group includes goaltender Karel Vejmelka, who has been outstanding this season.

Separately, their skater core (when healthy; the club was noticeably challenged when Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley were injured) has been very competitive all season, and at even strength their positive goal differential (+0.1 goals per 60 minutes played) is indiscernible from the New Jersey Devils and Colorado Avalanche.

The last team you want to play in a wild-card draw is one that can play with you at even strength, and one with a netminder who has proven he can stand on his head.

If not Utah, I like the Blues for similar reasons. Did you know they are a top 10 even-strength team on the year by rate goal differential, ahead of the Edmonton Oilers and Carolina Hurricanes?

The problem with Jim Montgomery’s team is that special teams has been a disaster on both sides of the aisle – couple a 23rd-ranked power play (6.8 goals per 60 minutes) with a 30th-ranked penalty kill (10.8 goals conceded per 60 minutes), and you will lose a lot more games than you should.

Betting on Calgary’s offence has been a fool’s errand all year; Vancouver surely has the most talent across their roster, but genuine chemistry concerns and an injured Quinn Hughes give me great pause.

Regardless of who you support, enjoy the stretch run. This is going to be 20 games of pandemonium, carrying us right into the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference