Jets knocked off the top; Habs hit rock bottom in Power Ranking

The Winnipeg Jets' two-week reign atop our Power Rankings has ended.

Through little fault of their own, the Jets slide to second following a 3-1-0 week. Most importantly, the Jets still own the best record in the NHL at 11-1-0.

So, why are they not first on our list? The model weighs overall performance as well as underlying numbers and recent play. The Carolina Hurricanes are on a roll right now, and our model forecasts them taking over the top spot in the NHL. The 8-2-0 Canes have won six straight games and own the best expected-goal differential in the league. We’ll see where things sit in our next edition of Power Rankings. 

The Edmonton Oilers moved up five spots from 16th to 11th this week. Edmonton has rallied since losing Connor McDavid to a lower-body injury, beating Nashville and Calgary by a combined score of 9-3.

Predictably, Leon Draisaitl has hit a new gear, scoring three goals and six points in those two games. Zach Hyman also finally found the back of the net, notching a goal in each game after failing to score in his first 10 games. For weeks we’ve been saying the Oilers' fortunes are bound to turn, with McDavid or without. Edmonton has the second-best goal differential in the NHL and was riding the worst shooting luck of any team, by far. Regression is upon us, and it has Oilers fans smiling.

The biggest riser among Canadian teams is the Ottawa Senators who move up nine spots from 21st to 12th. The Sens finished last week with a 2-1-0 record, though it could have been a perfect week had Ottawa not run into Igor Shesterkin on Friday night. The Rangers’ star goalie was outstanding in a 2-1 New York win, but Ottawa is showing an ability to tilt the ice against good teams.

Our model isn’t sure the Sens can keep scoring at the rate they have been but, for now, it likes them as a top-15 team in the league.

Up eight spots from 22nd to 14th, the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Leafs finished last week with a 2-1-1 record, following an overtime loss to Minnesota Sunday night. Toronto’s power play is still a major topic of conversation, ranking 31st in the NHL at 10 per cent.

Defensively, the Leafs rank 14th in expected goals against and have received terrific goaltending this season. The Maple Leafs sit seventh in goals saved above expected at plus 5.0. There are some kinks to work out in Toronto, but the Leafs are showing they should be a top-three team in the Atlantic Division, once again.

Down eight spots from seventh to 15th, the Vancouver Canucks. Vancouver is coming off a 1-1-1 week, which included a 6-0 loss to the New Jersey Devils. The Devils are the best transition team in hockey, dominating opponents off the rush. This game exposed a major weakness in the Canucks who were outchanced 12-2 off the rush. Vancouver ranks last in rush chances per game and 28th in chances against.

That said, the Canucks can still be a contender in the Pacific Division without even an average transition game. The Canucks are at their best when cycling the puck, winning battles and creating havoc around the net. Vancouver sits 23rd in expected goal differential and our model will need to see an improvement there before it slots the Canucks back in the top ten.

Also down eight spots, from 13th to 21st, are the Calgary Flames. Unfortunately for the Flames, the first month of this season has mirrored much of what we’ve seen over the past couple of seasons: average process, average results.

Calgary has won six games and lost six games. It sits 17th in goal differential per game and 19th in expected goal differential. The Flames face the Canadiens in Montreal on Tuesday, which should provide them with a chance to score some goals and pick up a road win against the 32nd-ranked team on our list. 

Yes, the Montreal Canadiens are down seven spots from 26th to last in our Power Rankings. The Habs have the worst goal differential per game in the league and sit 30th in expected goal differential.

Montreal continues to struggle defensively, ranking 31st in high-danger chances against, cycle chances against, expected goals against and goals against. Until improvements are made on the defensive side, it will be tough for this Habs team to string wins together.