Oilers must grapple with goaltending question ahead of trade deadline
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Stuart Skinner is not making life easy on the Edmonton Oilers front office.
The Oilers, who enter every season in the Connor McDavid-Leon Draisaitl era with a Stanley Cup-or-bust approach, have some critical decisions to make as the NHL’s March 7 trade deadline inches closer.
Chief among them: Can Skinner be trusted to carry this team in the postseason, especially considering his mediocre-at-best 2024-25 campaign?
Goaltender performance is highly volatile and there’s no doubt the Oilers are dealing with some uncertainty right now.
In the past two years, Skinner looked the part of a quality regular-season goaltender, the player Edmonton dreamed they could develop him into after selecting him 78th overall back in 2017. And the beauty of having insurance policies named McDavid and Draisaitl is that it ensures the Oilers don’t need elite goaltending to win a title.
But like any other team, the Oilers can’t afford to have the goaltending department cost them games, and Skinner’s downturn this season has undoubtedly forced some wandering eyes from GM Stan Bowman.
Unfortunately for Bowman, the goaltender trade market is a seller’s dream, with only two credible puck stoppers (neither of whom is a surefire bet) believed to be available, and plenty of teams looking for help in net.
So, what should the Oilers do in net? Ultimately I think they have three options:
- Bet on Skinner to rebound, and look at possible skater upgrades at the trade deadline;
- Acquire John Gibson from the Anaheim Ducks in either a starter or platoon role;
- Acquire Karel Vejmelka from the Utah Hockey Club in either a starter or platoon role.
When I mentioned the goaltending trade market is a seller’s dream, it isn’t just about demand exceeding supply. It’s also that Gibson and Vejmelka are tremendously outperforming against career averages this season. Both are inside of the top 15 in goals saved versus expected (via Evolving Hockey) this season; for Vejmelka, it’s the definition of a career year.
The tricky question front offices wrestle with here is if the current season is an upside outlier, or more indicative of things to come. You only pay the price of the first at the trade deadline, and to that end, sending a collection of picks and prospects for a goalie who may provide no improvement over the long term is a great way to blow up your organization’s future. It’s why so many teams have opted for platoon approaches in net these days; it’s not just the benefit of more rest and less financial commitment under a hard salary cap, it’s also about the scarcity of elite, repeatable goaltending.
To that point: the more you’re willing to look backwards, the more Skinner’s resume strengthens in contrast to that of Vejmelka and Gibson. Over a four-year sample, there’s a strong argument Skinner has been the best of the three.
The more you believe in Skinner’s prior history, the more you might believe in him as the best option of the three. Put heavy weight on this season, and Skinner is third in a three-horse race. It’s a tricky question to untangle, so let’s consider some other factors.
In Gibson’s case, the Oilers can see two things: tremendously flashy athletic play all over the video tape, and a career peak that was borderline elite. The problem is that career peak was at least five seasons ago. The Ducks have iced one of the worst lineups in hockey since that time, and there is no way the persistent breakdowns in coverage in front of Gibson have helped.
But we have seen great goaltenders flourish in difficult situations in the past. In this case, Gibson has been contributory to the Ducks’ demise and now the injury bug has started to creep on the 31-year-old veteran.
I would be remiss to not acknowledge his contact situation here. Gibson’s still signed on a $6.4 million AAV contract through the 2026-27 season. The Ducks have tremendous cap flexibility and could likely retain some salary in a trade with the cap-stressed Oilers, but this won’t be the easiest of fits.
In Vejmelka’s case, you’re betting on a relatively less-known commodity. He’s been one of the best goalies this season, but prior to that it was a smattering of games with a teetering Coyotes franchise playing in an NCAA arena. He is also the dream trade rental – an expiring contract carrying just a $2.7-million AAV charge through the end of this season.
Utah is wrestling with a long-term extension of Vejmelka right now. They have the same question to answer as the rest of the league, only they have to answer this first: Is Vejmelka worth a longer-term (and pricier) extension? The Oilers and any other trade deadline bidder could pursue Vejmelka as a pure rental, but considering what he’s put on tape this year, there will be real interest in a longer-term deal.
You could go for hours here not just differentiating between these two goalies as external options, but whether or not they improve this Edmonton team right here, right now. These are thin margins to say the least, but the Skinner and Calvin Pickard tandem conceding 13 goals this past weekend did nothing to calm this conversation.
What would Travis Yost do? I’d go after Vejmelka and platoon him with Skinner the rest of the way, and I’d probably look at him as a rental to start.
Gibson is older with a bigger cap hit and more term risk. Vejmelka may or may not be an upgrade over Skinner, but at worst he’s a cheap and high-quality insurance policy to platoon for this year’s Cup run.
And, at best, maybe Edmonton finally finds goaltending salvation in Utah.
Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference