Eight factors that define the Western Conference playoff picture

The surging St. Louis Blues are poised to lock up the last playoff berth in the Western Conference. And barring a late-season miracle, it does appear we have our group of eight, which allows us to start making real sense of the playoff landscape out west.

To that end, I wanted to identify the eight statistics defining this year’s Western Conference playoff picture. Though the conference has been a top-heavy and predictable group all season long, much has changed beneath the surface, giving us plenty to digest as we start analyzing the viability of each contender.

Let’s start with the cream of the crop in the Winnipeg Jets, and work our way down through the wild-card bidders.

Winnipeg Jets: Connor Hellebuyck’s persistent greatness

Two months ago, I posited Hellebuyck had a real shot at winning the Hart Trophy, a major accomplishment for any goaltender in the modern era.

Hellebuyck’s already a shoo-in for the Vezina Trophy, the third of his career, putting him on par with the likes of Patrick Roy and Tony Esposito. Suffice it to say Hellebuyck’s already solidified his Hall of Fame case, and he’s still just 31 years old. This year, he’s again erased goals at an unrelenting clip, lifting Winnipeg to the top seed in the West:

A goalie erasing nearly a goal per game over an entire season seems improbable, but it has become par for the course with Hellebuyck.

What his legacy needs now is a Stanley Cup, and in lieu of that, a dominant postseason performance. For as unbeatable as Hellebuyck has been throughout his career, his playoff numbers haven’t been as impressive. His past two appearances included disappointing stop rates (around 87 per cent) and quick exits for otherwise promising Jets teams over the prior two seasons (2022-24).

Jets fans know their path to a title starts and ends with goaltending outperformance, and considering his otherwise sterling resume, there has to be hope the past two playoff performances were outliers.

Dallas Stars: A defensive nightmare for all

Dallas’ top-end talent and depth were already the envy of the National Hockey League; add an elite forward the likes of Mikko Rantanen at a trade deadline, and it becomes an embarrassment of riches.

While Dallas is oozing offensive prowess, this is still a team that rests its laurels on being defensively impenetrable, especially as a five-man unit. Few teams, if any, insulate their goaltenders better than the Stars. Jake Oettinger is one of the best puck-stoppers you can find; put him behind a defence that never allows pressure from the net-mouth or low-slot area, and you have a team that can suppress scoring against any calibre foe (via HockeyViz):

Colorado Avalanche: It’s all about the matchup

The Avalanche have become a regular presence in the Stanley Cup Playoffs and the sheer thought of drawing into a series against the likes of Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar is terrifying.

This dynamic duo is again producing a career year – MacKinnon and Makar have combined for 193 points on the season, and when playing together at even strength, have outscored opponents 67 to 45 (+22).

But barring a major stumble from the Winnipeg Jets, we are going to see another matchup between the Avalanche and Stars. The two have met three times this season, and though the margins are razor-thin, Colorado’s ahead on the scoresheet:

I’m not foolish enough to put heavy weight into three regular-season games, especially just one year removed from Dallas pushing Colorado aside in six games. And that was before Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz saw a considerable linemate upgrade in the form of Rantanen.

Dallas prides itself in making everyone uncomfortable, combining an oppressive forecheck with a defensive interior that’s difficult to crack. Colorado is one of the few teams that’s shown an ability to disrupt what Dallas wants to do and have the team structure to engineer an upset. That said, it’s a near certainty they’ll have to do it as the road team in the series.

Vegas Golden Knights and Los Angeles Kings: A tale of two power plays

I’m cheating a bit by grouping these two Pacific Division foes together, but if power play performance is as important as the data indicates, Vegas is positioned for another deep title run.

Los Angeles? Let’s call it an uphill battle.

Two teams that are of similar pedigree at even strength are anything but on the man advantage. Quietly, the Golden Knights have taken over as the league’s deadliest power play group (11.8 goals per 60 minutes), whereas the Kings now sit 28th in the NHL (5.7 goals per 60 minutes). The cumulative differential between the two can explain nearly the entire point gap in the Pacific.

Doubling up another quality playoff team is a statement. The Kings have been searching for scoring all year, but absent Kevin Fiala (10 goals) and Adrian Kempe (six goals), it’s been a punchless group. Vegas’ top two scoring forwards – Tomas Hertl, and Pavel Dorofeyev – have combined to score more power-play goals than all Los Angeles units on the season.

Edmonton Oilers: Plenty of firepower, and plenty of goaltending concerns

The goaltending debate in Edmonton has been exhausted. But the two-headed monster of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl – an impossible ask to defend for even the best and deepest of competitors – doesn’t look as indomitable with such poor goaltending behind them.

The Oilers’ duo of Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard has stopped just 89 per cent of shots faced on the year, and when adjusting for the shot quality they are facing, it’s clear the Oilers are going to be at a goaltending disadvantage versus the rest of the West:

Heading into the trade deadline, there was a genuine debate as to what goaltenders in the market could be upgrades over Skinner, with names like Anaheim’s John Gibson and Utah’s Karel Vejmelka at the top of that list. The Oilers opted to stand pat. We will know in a matter of weeks whether Stan Bowman’s internal bet pays off.

Minnesota Wild: Kirill Kaprizov or bust?

The Wild have dealt with an injury bug all season long, and though John Hynes has his team closing in on another postseason berth, their ability to engineer any upset is likely contingent on having a full lineup available. Joel Eriksson-Ek is back skating, but perhaps more importantly, so too is Kirill Kaprizov.

Minnesota is a fundamentally different team with Kaprizov on the ice. He’s one of the league’s most dynamic forwards and his presence at the top of the lineup allows Minnesota to play best-on-best with the elite Western Conference teams.

The problem for Minnesota is when Kaprizov isn’t available (be it in the minutes he’s simply resting, or in this year’s case, missing from action with a lower-body injury), they look more like a draft-lottery team:

These are some of the most top-heavy results you will find at the player level, strikingly similar to the early years of McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers. Minnesota hasn’t produced any sort of timeline for when Kaprizov could return to action, but getting back on the ice is a promising first step.

St. Louis Blues: Everyone’s favorite late-season surprise

Only recently have the Blues grabbed national attention, owing heavily to a blistering win streak that’s given them an 85 per cent chance to qualify for the postseason.

But this team has been improving for some time. In fact, if you look at season-to-date goal differential, the Blues have outperformed both the Wild and the Oilers on the year, and that gap is increasing with time:

The Blues’ woeful special teams masked an otherwise strong and deep team from getting competitive footing in the standings early in the year. But Jim Montgomery’s team has been 31 goals better than the competition on the year at even strength, or +0.5 goals every 60 minutes played.

That rate performance is better than the Toronto Maple Leafs (+0.4), Vegas Golden Knights (+0.3), Florida Panthers (+0.3), and Carolina Hurricanes (+0.3). They’re a team getting hot at the right time, and a daunting draw for the likes of Winnipeg or Vegas in two weeks’ time.

And with that: enjoy the final weeks of the regular season, because the Stanley Cup playoffs are right around the corner.

Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference