Now We Go: Two Parlays for Week 2 of NFL Season
Published
It’s not every day a former NFL tight end calls asking for your thoughts on the Indianapolis Colts.
But when you’re friends with Super Bowl champion Luke Willson, and happen to be a Colts fan, that’ll happen from time to time.
Last Friday afternoon, Luke and I exchanged a few messages about the Colts Week 1 meeting with the Houston Texans.
When I told him they would cover the spread as 2.5-point underdogs, he asked me to explain.
“Overdrive is on the line.”
So I sent him a few notes and put my phone away for a nice mid-September round of twilight golf.
When I checked my phone after the round my heart was nearly in my stomach because I had another text from Luke: “Gave you a shoutout on Overdrive.”
Are you kidding me? My first Overdrive shoutout and it’s fading the trendiest team in America, while also backing my own team that’s historically bad in Week 1s??
Making a long story short the Colts covered thanks to a late Anthony Richardson scramble on fourth down and, frankly, very easily could’ve won the game.
However, the Texans left a number of points on the board, Richardson only completed nine passes, and Indy very easily could’ve lost that game by 20 points.
For that reason, I would strongly urge people to tread lightly with my Colts in Week 2. Winning at Lambeau Field is never going to be easy, and I hate how publicly this team is a road favourite.
Sure, the team will likely roll out former Tennessee Titans draft pick Malik Willis, and while some of his former Titans teammates have come out this week to say Willis “Doesn’t know ball,” I’m still scared of him.
We see backup quarterbacks look reasonable for one start all the time before the bottom falls out. Packers' coach Matt LaFleur getting a fine week out of Willis wouldn’t be the most stunning thing ever.
The Packers are also 5-1 ATS under LaFleur as a home underdog. This game is Packers or pass, so I will pass. You probably should too.
Let’s get to this week's fun.
Negative correlation parlay
I didn’t need another reason to think Texans’ head coach DeMeco Ryans is smart, but Week 1 was a great reminder.
The easiest way to keep a new star wide receiver on your team happy is simply get him the ball.
Stefon Diggs was acquired in the offseason and with him joining an already crowded pass catchers group, questions about keeping Diggs engaged and happy felt warranted.
But there was no sign of trouble in Week 1, Diggs was targeted six times, hauling in all six with two touchdowns.
While the volume was there, it seems apparent that Houston’s offence will feature Nico Collins and Tank Dell as the field stretchers, leaving Diggs underneath for key third down conversions and redzone opportunities.
So I’m running a Diggs primetime same game parlay this week with three legs:
- Diggs over 4.5 receptions
- Diggs under 50.5 yards
- Diggs anytime touchdown
I think he’ll be active Sunday night, but I don’t see him going over his receiving yards number unless he breaks off a big catch-and-run. Thus, the negative correlation.
Three legs currently at +1928 on FanDuel.
Birds of a Feather
This isn’t the first time I’m putting together a Baltimore Ravens - Philadelphia Eagles moneyline parlay and titling it Birds of a Feather, and it likely won’t be the last.
It’s early in the season so I’m still feeling out some teams in the league, but I have very strong feelings on all four teams involved with these two games and it led to a two-leg -159 parlay.
Let’s start with Ravens - Las Vegas Raiders.
Baltimore enters this game with a three-day rest advantage over the Raiders on the heels of nearly stealing a win on the road in Kansas City.
The Ravens are one of the best teams in the league and can’t afford to start 0-2 in a competitive AFC.
On the flip side, the Raiders are stuck in the middle lacking direction. Last week they punted on 4th a 1 with under eight minutes left in the fourth quarter from the opponents 41 yard-line while down six points. Not good.
I'll take an already desperate Ravens team in leg 1 and I love the Eagles to feast on the Atlanta Falcons in leg 2.
The early returns on Kirk Cousins in Atlanta point to why the team selected a quarterback inside the top 10 of this year's draft.
Cousins’ mobility wasn’t great and it looked like he was having a hard time generating a good push off his right foot after the Achilles tear last season.
If Cousins losing to the Eagles in a Week 2 in a prime time game sounds familiar, it’s because that’s exactly what’s happened the past two seasons.
Cousins threw for five touchdowns with three interceptions while being sacked four times in the two games.
I don’t see him magically taking a leap this week, so give me the Eagles, another team with a slight rest advantage this week, as the second leg in the parlay.