At crossroads, Blue Jays brass faced with crucial off-season

TORONTO — A touch of accountability and a whole lot of internal confusion.

That’s the sentence that sums up the latest attempt by this Toronto Blue Jays regime to explain what went wrong as another season wraps up in disappointing fashion.

This time around, that disappointment hit much differently than years past, as a season with very high expectations fell far short, with the writing on the wall earlier than ever.

Both club president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins, who will return for a 10th season at the helm in 2025, shouldered the blame at Wednesday’s season-ending press conference at Rogers Centre, saying they as executives — and their process of correctly evaluating talent — need to get better.

The answer to how that happens was, as usual, much more vague.

So vague, in fact, that it’s easy to believe they don’t yet have answers as to why things went so spectacularly sideways.

Everything they believed last year at this time did not work.

The offensive co-ordinator role that Don Mattingly was shifted into has already been ditched, while their faith in last year’s collection of talent was clearly misplaced.

It’s left the organization in an awkward place, and how much time they have to correct course is clearly running out.

Facing a critical off-season for the long-term health of the franchise in so many ways, Jays brass seems to be in soul-searching mode as they evaluate the philosophies they’ve put in place over the past decade.

Why has the offence sputtered for two seasons now? They don’t have a clear answer yet.

Why can’t the organization develop pitching and keep their arms healthy at the minor-league level? There’s no obvious answer to that, with both drafting and developing, or lack thereof, playing roles.

No matter what you want to point to or debate as to reasons why, there’s one overarching narrative heading into another off-season: The Blue Jays as a franchise are not trending upwards anymore, they’re now getting worse.

It’s left Shapiro and the front office at a crossroads.

Nail things this winter and maybe things get back on track. If they don’t, major change is coming in many forms.

Here are four important questions that are on the front burner this off-season:

What’s the goal for 2025 and what’s the payroll they have to work with?

Atkins unequivocally answered this Wednesday, saying the goal is to compete and spend money to do so in 2025, and there is no pivot to a rebuild depending on how potential trades and free agency go.

They’re committed to seeing this window through, and they believe there’s enough veteran talent on this roster to quickly reboot and have a chance to contend in what’s going to be a loaded AL East next season.

Shapiro gave a pretty open answer to the second part of that question, too, saying he expects the payroll to be in the same range it was this year, even if they don’t finish up the budgetary process with ownership until late October as free agency approaches.

Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Jays spent about $234.9 million on the roster when all was said and done in 2024, which placed them 10th in baseball.

With a significant chunk of money coming off the books, the Jays might have close to $60 million to spend this winter. That would put them in play for one or two top-of-the-market free-agent adds, as well as some depth.

We will see if the same type of investment actually comes to fruition when the market opens in November.

Can they get Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed to a long-term extension?

Considering the timing, the next two questions might be the most pressing of the winter.

Coming off an MVP-level season, Vladdy Jr. is on the mind of the fan base, and with good reason.

Every player is going to say they want to return, but all of the leverage is on the player’s side right now and it will be interesting to see if the club can convince him to forego the opportunity to check out the open market when he’s this close to it.

It would seem that the Jays would have to beat the contract terms that Vladdy’s camp deems to be market value in order for him to re-sign at this late stage, and there has never been an indication that they’ve been close.

The analytically-driven front office may be struggling with the lack of positional value at first base and that tact will not make it easy to find numbers that work for both sides.

Vladdy is going to want an Albert Pujols/Miguel Cabrera-type investment, and it doesn’t seem unfair to ask for that at his young age.

What’s Bo Bichette’s trade value this winter?

An even trickier situation than finding the right long-term parameters for Vladdy is figuring out not only Bichette’s standing within the organization, but also his trade value.

The Jays did indeed shop Bichette in the early stages last winter, according to sources, but it was more exploratory than anything.

This time around, there seems to be a bit of a fractured relationship, and a change of scenery might be best for both parties.

The issue? Well, it’s that putrid .225/.277/.322 slash line and career-worst numbers that has Bichette’s value sitting at an all-time low.

Add in nagging leg injuries starting to take a toll and there are a whole lot of reasons for teams to lowball the Jays if he’s made available.

With one year of contractual control to go, it’s almost impossible to gauge from afar what a team would give up for Bichette at this point.

Maybe there’s a smart front office that’s so eager to buy low that they’d entice Atkins to part with Bichette, but that remains to be seen.

If the goal is to win in 2025 and nothing else matters, keeping a motivated Bichette in a contract year might also be the smart thing to do.

But that’s opening the door for both stars to walk for nothing after 2025.

It’s 20 years ago and I’m dating myself with this reference, but the Boston Red Sox shipping out Nomar Garciaparra, a franchise icon, for a less-than-spectacular package at the 2004 trade deadline in order to add multiple players might be the best comparable there is. Worked out decently for that franchise, too.

What are the priorities when it comes to improving the roster?

Here’s where the plan to contend comes with potential landmines.

Simply put, there’s a lot to do. And that’s being nice. There isn’t one area of the roster they can leave untouched.

From a starting pitcher — Atkins said they’d be in the mix for the top guys and not just depth — to a complete bullpen overhaul to the obvious need for significant lineup improvements, there’s a long shopping list.

That probably means getting to work early in the winter like they did a couple years ago with the mid-November Teoscar Hernandez trade, while also taking a few more chances in terms of upside.

They need another Marcus Semien-type home-run acquisition, truthfully. That’s not easy to do.

The free-agent market aligns better for Atkins this year with a number of intriguing possibilities that fit on the position player side, but don’t rule out a major trade or two that could shift priorities and add controllable talent.