Breaking down the Blue Jays' off-season pitching targets

TORONTO — After a couple years of shopping near the top of the rotation market in both free agency and the trade market, the Toronto Blue Jays could be in line for a change in approach this winter.

With Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman and the expensive Jose Berrios, who needs a bounce-back campaign in 2023, all in-house, the bullpen could be where GM Ross Atkins spends his dollars this winter.

During Atkins’ seven-year tenure since he was hired in the winter of 2015, the ‘pen hasn’t traditionally been an area where significant resources have been spent.

But it’s also an area of the roster that’s usually the last a true World Series contender has to address, and continually address as the season wears on because you just never really know with bullpen construction.

It was clear during Toronto’s epic wild-card series meltdown that the bullpen needs more impact arms, an idea that Atkins has talked about on numerous occasions over the past year but hasn’t really followed through on.

Whether that relief help arrives via trade or free agency remains to be seen but adding impact to the bullpen and multiple depth options to the back end of the rotation would seem to be the correct strategy given the pitching needs and what’s currently in place.

With that in mind, here are my 22 favourite pitching targets for Atkins and the Jays:

SP Justin Verlander, Astros, age 40

Justin Verlander Houston Astros

Verlander is one of the high-end starting pitchers on the market that the Jays could target for a couple of reasons. The first is that they already did last year and Verlander was open to the idea. The second is the term will be palatable, and the 40-year-old may even be open to something creative at this stage of his career. Will he leave the defending-champion Astros is the question? The scenario seems ideal for the future Hall of Famer at this point. In addition to giving the Jays arguably the best trio of starters in baseball, he would provide a great mentor to not only Manoah but some of the young pitching — cough, Ricky Tiedemann — the club is hoping will start to emerge over the next couple of seasons.

SP Kodai Senga, Japan, age 30

Koudai Senga

Where these markets will go is always just as much of a mystery as how Japanese pitchers armed with splitter out-pitches will transition to MLB. There’s a chance Senga’s market is reasonable, and the Jays have made calls on just about every Japanese starter available during the Atkins tenure. Turning 30 in January, Senga is a right-hander in his prime and he’s coming off 1.94 ERA across 144 frames with the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks this past season. The best part of a Senga chase is he’s not subject to the posting process, leaving him free to negotiate as a normal free agent. His splitter, which he calls his Ghost Fork, is a quality offering and Senga can run his fastball into the upper-90s. The issue, however, might be high walk totals. Blue Jays fans won't want to hear this, but there are some right-handed Yusei Kikuchi vibes here, and there’s a chance the contract ends up in the same range as the $56 million guaranteed the Seattle Mariners gave that Japanese lefty four years ago.

RP Rafael Montero, Astros, age 33

Rafael Montero Houston Astros

Montero and the next game on this list, Robert Suarez, landed at No. 23 and No. 24, respectively, on the annual top 50 free agent list put together by me and TSN insider Steve Phillips. In those writeups, I gushed over the pair of high-octane righties and they’re by far my two favourite impact and upside bullpen targets for the Jays. I’d be trying to get them both signed and quickly. Like before the Winter Meetings in San Diego in December.

RP Robert Suarez, Padres, age 32

Robert Suarez San Diego Padres

Suarez’s agent smartly wrote a $5-million player option into the deal he signed with the San Diego Padres last winter after reviving his career in Japan. After posting a 2.27 ERA in his return, Suarez quickly declined that and will head to the market as one of the more intriguing late-inning options. Armed with five pitches, hitters couldn’t touch either of Suarez’s fastballs or his changeup (.089 batting average against) and if you remove his first two appearances in early April as he battled command issues on his way to four earned runs allowed, his ERA drops to 1.58 with 59 punchouts in 45.2 innings.

RP Matt Moore, Rangers, age 34

Matt Moore Texas Rangers

In his first full season as a reliever, Moore was dominant, and he probably should’ve tried this transition years ago. Across 74 frames, the lefty and former top prospect as a starter with the Tampa Bay Rays way back in the day posted a sparkling 1.95 ERA, striking out 27.3 per cent of the hitters he faced. The walks are a bit of an issue, but Moore’s ability to keep right-handers in check with a .165 batting average against makes him an attractive late inning option that could get even better if he can harness his control as he adjusts further to a bullpen role.

RP Taylor Rogers, Brewers, age 32

Taylor Rogers Milwaukee Brewers

Rogers suffered through the worst season of his career with a 4.76 ERA, but the overall body of work over the course of the lefty’s career is going to leave him with many suitors. The Jays care more about relievers that can get both sides out rather than focusing on the arm they throw with but adding another lefty to go along with Tim Mayza would be a smart move.

RP Andrew Chafin, Tigers, age 33

Andrew Chafin Detroit Tigers

With a combined 2.29 ERA over his last two seasons, Chafin quickly declined his player option this month and will have a ton of teams interested in his services. Seen as a bit of a lefty specialist previously, Chafin held both right-handed and left-handed hitters to a sub-.200 batting average this past season.

SP Andrew Heaney, Dodgers, age 32
SP Nathan Eovaldi, Red Sox, age 33
SP Mike Clevinger, Padres, age 32
SP Noah Syndergaard, Phillies, age 30

I’ll combine these next three groups into types that would add important depth to Pete Walker’s pitching staff and help the Jays navigate the surprises that always come within a 162-game season.

The Jays had interest in Heaney last year before he signed with the Dodgers, where he posted a solid 3.10 ERA and showed glimpses of being a quality starter with three 10-plus K outings in just 14 starts. None of these guys can be counted on for 30 starts and all four might be better as short-stint back-end starters who rarely go past the fifth or sixth inning. That may not sound overly sexy, but there’s upside for more in all of them if things click and the term and cash for each of these guys isn’t going to be an issue. Given this front office regime’s familiarity with Clevinger from their days together in Cleveland, the 32-year-old righty is an intriguing candidate for a one-year show-me deal and a fifth starter role coming off a 4.33 ERA.

SP/RP Shintaro Fujinami, Japan, age 29
SP/RP Zach Eflin, Phillies, age 29
SP/RP Nick Martinez, Padres, age 32 ($6.5M player option)
SP/RP Michael Lorenzen, Angels, age 31
SP/RP Matt Strahm, Red Sox, age 31
SP/RP Matthew Boyd, Mariners, age 32

Here are five arms that could conceivably start the season in the role Ross Stripling filled in 2022 as a swingman with the ability to fill a rotation hole when an injury inevitably strikes. Fujinami will be posted by the Hanshin Tigers and has shown glimpses of brilliance in the past, but he’s been nothing more than a depth arm in Japan and is a similar to the Shun Yamaguchi signing a few years ago. The difference with Fujinami is he’s shown a triple-digit fastball in the past. Eflin, Lorenzen and Martinez have all bounced between the rotation and ‘pen at various points during their careers and would add fifth starter competition. Strahm, a starter in the past, has indicated a desire to return to the rotation and is looking for a team to let him do that. With a solid track record as a lefty reliever, he has a solid fallback floor. Boyd returned from a flexor tendon injury late last year and looked good as a reliever for the first time in his career, but there’s lots of upside as a fifth starter candidate, too.

RP Adam Ottavino, Mets, age 37
RP Seth Lugo, Mets, age 33
RP Trevor May, Mets, age 33
RP Tommy Kahnle, Dodgers, age 33
RP Pierce Johnson, Padres, age 32

These guys aren’t going to generate any headlines, but they’d all be solid additions to the bullpen, especially if some of the more prime targets ahead of them on the list come off the board. All five have filled high-leverage roles in the past and could provide sneaky value. Ottavino’s 2.06 ERA across 66 appearances is going to make him the most attractive of this bunch, but Johnson and his elite out-pitch curveball is the guy I’d be targeting to add a different element of much-needed swing-and-miss.