Blue Jays enter off-season at a clear pivot point

The long, winding road that is the Major League Baseball off-season has arrived, and the Toronto Blue Jays’ to-do list might be just as lengthy.

A franchise at a clear pivot point in a Sons of Big Leaguers Era that’s now closing, it’s now or never for this group, and maybe the entire regime when all is said and done.

It’s a winter that president/CEO Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins need to get right in order to steady what looks to be a ship full of holes and have a chance to contend in 2025.

That’s their plan.

Debating how realistic that plan is right now is pointless.

What they do between now and February will tell the story, and it all starts this week at the annual GM Meetings in San Antonio as free agency officially gets underway Monday evening.

Just like last year, the Jays are expected to be one of the teams “in on” just about every big name.

Unlike last year, the hope is they actually sign someone of consequence, rather than simply spend the winter frolicking in the rumour mill.

The work for Atkins & Co. extends far beyond just adding to the current roster, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s contact extension and overhauling aspects of the drafting and development pipeline with new hires and philosophies also vital to the long-term health of the franchise.

NEW BAT MAN IN TOWN

After firing long-time hitting coach Guillermo Martinez on the final day of the season, the Jays didn’t waste much time in finding a replacement.

Tasked with turning around a powerless offence is David Popkins, who was let go from the exact same position by the Minnesota Twins after their late-season collapse.

The San Diego product spent three seasons as the Twins hitting coach, and the Blue Jays’ press release made sure to point out that Minnesota finished top five in the American League in homers, extra-base hits, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate during Popkins’ tenure.

According to those who know Popkins, he’s highly focused on some of the new-age aspects of hitting, including biomechanics.

While the line-by-line resume is impressive, one of the aspects that drew the Jays to Popkins was the reputation he seems to have earned with veteran players around the league, which isn’t easy for hitting coaches without big-league experience.

“Popkins helped me understand myself a little better,” Twins veteran Carlos Correa told Dan Hayes of The Athletic. “A .900 OPS for some people comes with homers and walks. For me, it comes with being a little more creative and he helped me understand that I don’t have to hit a home run every at-bat. Pop has been a huge help for me and I’m grateful that I came to this organization, and he was my hitting coach.”

The Jays finished 23rd in baseball in runs scored last season, while the Twins finished 10th.

FARRELL LEAVES FOR THE D

With the Jays’ record of drafting and developing under the microscope these days as the pipeline sits firmly in the bottom third of baseball, it’s notable that amateur scouting director Shane Farrell unofficially departed for the Detroit Tigers front office last month.

It’s left the Jays with another item on the checklist, but many around the game have been underwhelmed with the club’s drafts over the past five years since Farrell was hired in January of 2020.

With a top 10 pick to play with this year (more on that below), the pressure will be on the new hire immediately.

Elsewhere in the organization, according to a source, former major-league right-hander Justin Lehr was hired to replace Cory Popham, who was let go from his role as the club’s minor-league pitching coordinator.

The inability to develop pitching at a reasonable rate is a front-burner issue within the front office this winter.

ESTRADA 2.0 COMING?

After the qualifying offer process wrapped up Monday and free agency officially got underway, the next roster pressure point date arrives in a couple of weeks when teams need to add prospects to the 40-man roster.

The Jays don’t have a lot of obvious names that need protecting from the Rule 5 draft this year, but they could decide to shield what little pitching they do have in the organization.

There are a number of relievers — Connor Cooke, Hayden Juenger, Johnathan Lavallee — they could opt to protect, but perhaps the most interesting name is under-the-radar Cuban righty Lazaro Estrada.

Currently leading the Arizona Fall League in strikeouts, Estrada will turn 26 in April, but he possesses a deep repertoire that’s led by a high-spin hook that’s sure to get a few looks from front offices around the game.

The 92-mph heater also has good ride and Estrada started developing both a splitter and cutter this year, finishing out the season with a solid 11-start stint at Double-A.

There’s a starting pitcher skillset here, but he could intrigue teams as a one-time-through-the-order bullpen stash for 2025.

On the hitting side, here are two names to keep an eye on: 2B/OF Adrian Pinto and 3B/SS Eddinson Paulino, who came over from Boston in the Danny Jansen trade in July.

ROMANO AT RISK?

Projected to earn nearly $30 million in his final season of team control, there’s no doubt this year’s Jays arbitration class is headlined by Guerrero.

But the name to keep an eye on in the group of 10 is that of closer Jordan Romano, who’s coming off a tough age-31 season that saw him post a 6.59 ERA before undergoing what ended up being season-ending elbow surgery in July.

While the surgery to address an impingement isn’t expected to be an issue by the time spring training arrives, Romano’s effectiveness combined with his potential price tag has some viewing him as a potential non-tender candidate on the Nov. 22 deadline.

Atkins added fuel to the fire when he mentioned in October that Romano would not be handed the closer role for 2025, and that the back end of the bullpen is something they could address in free agency.

MLB Trade Rumors’ annual arbitration projections landed Romano at $7.75 million for 2025, his final season of team control.

That’s a decent chunk of change that could be spread out in other areas of the roster, but subtracting Romano would add even more bullpen work for the front office to get done this winter.

While Gold Glover Daulton Varsho ($7.7M projection), Alejandro Kirk ($4.1M), Alek Manoah ($2.4M) and Ernie Clement ($1.7M) will all be re-upped, relievers Erik Swanson ($3.2M), Genesis Cabrera ($2.5M), Dillon Tate ($1.9M) and Zach Pop ($1M) could conceivably all be at risk alongside Romano.

PING PONG BALLS MATTER NOW

A new wrinkle that Blue Jays fans haven’t needed to pay attention to thanks to contender status, this winter is different.

The annual draft lottery will be held for the third time at the winter meetings in Dallas on Dec. 10 (5:30 p.m.), and this time around the Jays are involved, holding a 7.48 per cent chance of winning the first overall pick.

Thanks to a dismal 74-88 record, those are the fifth-best lottery odds on the board, behind the Colorado Rockies, Miami Marlins, LA Angels and Washington Nationals.

All 18 non-playoff teams are entered into the lottery, but there are wrinkles.

The Chicago White Sox just lost a historic number of games, but as a team that picked in the lottery in the 2024 draft and is a club that pays into revenue sharing, the Pale Hose are not eligible for this year’s lottery.

On the flip side, the Sacramento A’s are a franchise that receives a chunk of the revenue sharing pie, but those clubs are not eligible to get a lottery pick three years in a row.

That will leave the White Sox and A’s picking no earlier than 10th and 11th in the 2025 draft as a result.

The first two lotteries have provided very different results.

Last year, the Cleveland Guardians won a stunner with just a two per cent chance at first pick, while two years ago was status quo with the co-favourite Pittsburgh Pirates, with a 16.5 per cent chance, earning the right to select Paul Skenes a few months later.

With a little luck, the Jays could land a much-needed blue-chip talent next July.

KEY DATES THIS WINTER

Nov. 18: Rookie of the Year awards announced
Nov. 19: Manager of the Year awards announced
Nov. 19: Rule 5 Draft 40-man roster protection deadline
Nov. 20: Cy Young awards announced
Nov. 21: MVP awards announced
Nov. 22: Non-tender deadline
Dec. 8: Winter Meetings start in Dallas
Dec. 10: MLB Draft lottery
Dec. 11: Rule 5 Draft